vendredi 19 octobre 2012

10/19 The Guardian World News

     
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Eurozone crisis: EU summit day two - live
October 19, 2012 at 9:11 AM
 

Leaders return to the negotiating table today after a marathon session that dragged into the early hours of the morning, and which saw a compromise deal on banking supervision




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Syria conflict: Brahimi takes ceasefire plan to Damascus - live updates
October 19, 2012 at 9:06 AM
 

Follow live updates as Lakhdar Brahimi is expected in Damascus where he will lobby for a temporary truce for Aid al-Adha


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North Korea threatens military strike if propaganda leaflets dropped
October 19, 2012 at 9:02 AM
 

Pyongyang warns it will open fire on South Korean tourist area if leaflets criticising government are sent over border with $1 notes

North Korea has issued its most strident warning in months, threatening to open fire on South Korean territory if anti-Pyongyang leaflets are sent over the border.

A coalition of non-government organisations has said it plans to drop anti-North Korea leaflets on Monday as part of its campaign against Pyongyang.

North Korea said if the leaflets were dropped a "merciless military strike by the western front will be put into practice without warning", according to the state news agency KCNA. The attack would target a tourist area in the border city of Paju a few miles from the demilitarised zone that separates the two countries.

The South Korean defence minister, Kim Kwan-jin, told a parliamentary committee on Friday that Seoul would counter-strike in the event of any such attack. "If that were to happen, there will be a perfect response against the source of the attack," he told MPs.

North Korea shelled a South Korean island two years ago, causing civilian deaths. In 2010, Pyongyang was widely blamed for sinking a South Korean navy ship, although it denied responsibility.

KCNA frequently carries anti-South Korean rhetoric, although a specific threat to an exact area has been rare in recent months.

"The KPA [Korean People's Army] never makes any empty talk," KCNA quoted military commanders as saying.

The leader of a coalition of groups comprising North Korean exiles and human rights activists said it intended to go ahead with the plan to send giant balloons containing 200,000 leaflets criticising North Korea's government.

"We had similar threats last year and they did not stop us before and this is not going to stop us this time," said Pak Sang-hak, a North Korean exile who defected 12 years ago.

Pak and his colleagues plan to put 1,000 $1 notes in the leaflets inside plastic bags. They say the US dollars are prized by the impoverished people of North Korea.


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San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game 4 - live!
October 19, 2012 at 1:33 AM
 

Rolling report: San Francisco Giants (1-2) visit the St Louis Cardinals (2-1) for NLCS Game 4




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Detroit Tigers 8 - New York Yankees 1 — as it happened
October 19, 2012 at 1:06 AM
 

• Tigers are American League Champions
• Detroit completes sweep of Yankees with home run derby
• Alex Rodriguez leaves witness protection to pinch hit

Preamble: Since the thunder has disappeared from the Yankees' bats this post-season, they had to rely on actual thunder on Wednesday. Or at least the threat of it. With Game 4 of the ALCS postponed on account of rain in the forecast, New York got a stay of execution from the weathermen last night.

Not that Yankee fans didn't have plenty of important things to keep themselves occupied with yesterday. Alex Rodriguez was to have been benched again last night, but he put up Hall of Fame numbers when it came to important news stories.

For instance…would A-Rod be sent to the Marlins? (Keith Olbermann said yes. Brian Cashman said no.)

How would "A Rod" the horse do at Belmont Park? Let's put it this way: I think Derek Jeter could have beaten him in a race. (Too soon?) He finished seventh out of a field eight. But at least he wasn't scratched.

And most important: Would the "Saucy Aussie" that A-Rod was hitting on during Saturday's game get a chance to dance at the New York strip club Scores? Clearly a pole poll is called for here.

Oh yes—and there's apparently a baseball game to be played today. Unless...oh sweet Lord!...is that a cloud near Comerica Park? Start lining up the animals in pairs!

Sorry...where was I?

Neither Joe Girardi nor Jim Leyland have altered their lineups from yesterday—which means that Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson will both have a nice view from the dugout today. Max Scherzer will be on the mound for the Tigers and CC Sabathia will have to save the Yankees' season yet again.

Can he do it? We shall see see.

Email your thoughts, predictions, and eulogies for the Yankees to michael.solomon.freelance@guardian.co.uk. Or tweet @Mister_Solomon

First pitch is minutes away. Starting lineups are coming up soon.

Lineups:

NEW YORK YANKEES
1. Ichiro Suzuki, LF
2. Nick Swisher, RF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B
5. Raul Ibanez, DH
6. Eric Chavez, 3B
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Brett Gardner, CF
9. Eduardo Nunez, SS

CC Sabathia, LHP

DETROIT TIGERS

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Andy Dirks, LF
8. Avisail Garcia, RF
9. Gerald Laird, C

Max Scherzer, RHP

Limp bats: How poorly are the Yankees hitting? As a team, they're right at the Mendoza Line—.200.

But that's not necessarily bad news. In 1962, the Yankees hit .199 in the post-season—and won the World Series.

Also, the Cardinals are hitting .198 right now. And they seem to be doing okay.

Today's weather: It's 59 degrees today in Detroit. And partly cloudy.

Keep an umbrella handy.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Ichiro Suzuki is first up for the Yankees—and Scherzer throws him a pitch worthy of Nuke LaLoosh. That ball bounced behind him. But Scherzer settles down, takes Ichiro to a full count, and gets him to pop up to third. One out.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Nick Swisher at the plate. Coincidentally, "swish" is the same sound his bat made when he missed on that third strike. Two down.

It's early but Scherzer looks unhittable today

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Our next victim is Robinson Cano. For all the blame that A-Rod has taken in this post-season, let's not forget that Cano is batting a tragic .067.

Or whatever the new number will be now that he has struck out.

Three up, three down.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Well after that first half of the inning, it's really going to be up to Sabathia today. Austin Jackson is up first. And he pops up to Cano.

One out.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Omar Ifante works a full count with Sabathia. Infante hits a dribbler to third—Eric Chavez comes up with it and throws like a six-year-old girl to first! Safe!

Say what you will about A-Rod at the plate, but Infante would have been out by a mile with him at third. Chavez might want to play with some urgency today. You know, like, as if the season were on the line.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: That brings up Cabrera. And the Triple Crown winner takes Sabathia deep to left...but Ichiro is under it. Two down.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Prince Fielder at the plate and he hits a blooper over Nunez at short. That will put runners on the corners with two outs.

And Yankee killer Delmon Young is coming to the plate...

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 1st: And Young makes the Yankees pay early. He drives the ball to right...and it drops! That will score Infante. And now there are runners on first and second, two outs.

Tigers 1 - Yankees 0

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 1st: With the Tigers threatening, Jhonny Peralta comes to the plate. And Jhonny goes down shwinging.

CC gets out of the jam, but the Tigers have already drawn blood.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 2nd: Mark Texeira leads off for New York. And he continues the fine Yankee tradition of popping up for the first out.

And then Raul Ibanez goes down swinging. Two outs.

My colleague David Lengel writes: "The benching and pinch-hitting for A-Rod has gone from trying to shake up the lineup to help the team to some kind of bizarre punishment. If there were a viable option at 3B I would get it, but they shook the tree and nothing fell out. Why not revert to your best possible lineup now? What's to lose? No, this is personal. The Yankees should keep in mind that they were under no legal obligation to offer A-Rod a contract for those years and those dollars."

Oh this is totally personal. Like Jaws: The Revenge.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 2nd: That brings Eric Chavez to the plate. Can he make up for that weak throw in the last inning? Not a chance. Chavez goes down swinging as well.

That's six up, six down.

Under pressure: Want to understand the kind of pressure CC is facing today? It's something akin to Kevin Costner in For the Love of the Game—which (not coincidentally) featured the Yankees and the Tigers.


And, no, I can't explain why this trailer uses the music from The Natural.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 2nd: Andy Dirks leads off the inning for the Tigers with a single to center. That brings up Avisail Garcia, who lays down a bunt on the first base line. Badly. Texeira throws it to second. One out. Man on first. And that brings up Gerald Laird...

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 2nd: Laird pops up to second and that brings up the top of the order. Austin Jackson at the plate. Garcia with a big lead at first...and he takes off for second...and he's in there!

The Tigers are playing so aggressively right now. It's almost as if they know they can win the American League pennant today.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 2nd: With a man on second and two outs, Austin Jackson draws a walk. The first of the day for Sabathia.

And here comes Omar Infante...

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 2nd: Infante hits a roller between first and second...Texeira's there...and he steps on the bag for the third out.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: As the third inning begins the Yankees send the heart of the bottom of their lineup to the plate. First up is Russell Martin...who does just what Scherzer wants him to: pop up to center.

One out.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: So Brett Gardner tries his luck at the plate. He hits a slow roller to second...Infante comes up with it...and Gardner...slides?

Two down.

Why do Major League players slide into first? Seriously. Have you ever seen an Olympic sprinter slide at the finish line? Run through the bag, fellas.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: That brings Nunez to the plate. Can the Yankees at least get on base today? Nunez hits one down the first base line, it's some spin on it...and Prince Fielder can't prince field it! Nunez is safe at first!

Okay, so it's not a hit. But at least the Yankees have a runner on first. That's a start.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: So Ichiro steps in with Nunez at first. Make that second! Nunez took off and the throw was late.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: Ichiro works it to a full count...and draws the walk. That was very close. (Mercy call by the ump?)

And that brings up Nick Swisher...

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 3rd: With two outs and men on first and second, Nick Swisher goes down looking.

That is just the kind of clutch strikeout he's been delivering all post-season.

I like Swish, but I'm guessing he won't be wearing pinstripes next April.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 3rd Cabrera leads off for the Tigers and lines out to right. That brings up Prince Fielder, who
drills it to first—and Texeira can't prince field it! One on, one out. And Delmon Young at the plate...

@Poleass tweets: "@Mister_Solomon 25 guys. One goal #WinToday. Do not go gentle into that good night #SFGiants #Timmytime #OrangeOctober"

That's very true. And I'm guessing the Giants will play like that. Unfortunately, no one gave that Yankees that inspiring Dylan Thomas pep talk today.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 3rd: Young draws a walk from Sabathia. Two on, one out. And Jhonny Peralta at the phlate. (Fair warning: I'm never going to get tired of that misplaced "H" jhoke.)

Peralta goes deeeeep to left...Ichiro on the warning track...two outs.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 3rd: Andy Dirks at the plate with two outs...and he hits a chopper to first...and Texeira can't handle it! Wow. What a nightmare half-inning for the normally sure-handed Texeira. This one will be scored an error.

Bases loaded. Two outs. Garcia coming to the plate...

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, bottom 3rd: Garcia hits one back up the middle...Sabathia jumps for it...and doesn't come down with it. Nunez backs him up...spin throw...in the dirt! The runner is safe and first and that scores a run!

Holy Bad News Bears...

Tigers 2 - Yankees 0

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, bottom 3rd: So the bases are still loaded with two outs...and Laird comes to the plate. The Yankees cannot afford another run (or six) here.

Sabathia deals to Laird...who skies it to right...but Swisher is there for the third out.

Still, the Tigers tack on another run. And we head to the fourth inning.

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, top 4th: Robinson Cano leads off for the Yankees...and he flies out to center.

Wow. Just wow.

I can make a case that A-Rod is getting old. And that Granderson is in a bit of a slump. And that Swisher has never been that clutch. But I don't know what to say about Cano in the post-season. This is a face-on-a-milk-carton performance.

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, top 4th: So Texeira comes to the plate...and he'll be looking to make up for that last half-inning. And he'll have to wait another few innings. Tex goes down swinging.

Two outs.

Ibanez, you got any magic left?

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, top 4th: And there is no joy in Yankeeville. Mighty Raul has struck out. For the second time today.

Inning over.

That's seven Ks in four innings for Scherzer. Even if the Yankees could hit, he's unhittable.

Tigers 2-Yankees 0, bottom 4th: Austin Jackson goes down swinging. But Infante comes right back with a single to shallow center. That will bring up Miguel Cabrera...

Big at bat here...

Tigers 4-Yankees 0, bottom 4th: Big at bat indeed! Cabrera LAUNCHES one to left! Home run!

And the Yankees are on life support. And the chants of "MVP" begin...

Tigers 4 - Yankees 0

Tigers 4-Yankees 0, bottom 4th: As the Tigers start resting for the World Series, that brings up Prince Fielder. And he strikes out.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 4th:Yankee killer Delmon Young at the plate and he singles to left.

Which brings Jhonny Peralta to the plate. And he LAUNCHES one to left! GHONE!

Tigers 6 - Yankees 0

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 4th: Oh boy, this is now batting practice for the Tigers. Andy Dirks takes CC deep to the gap in left-center. He's in there with a double.

And Sabathia is out of there. Girardi is going to the bullpen.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 4th: Cody Eppley is now in relief for Sabathia...and he'll face Garcia, who grounds out to short to end this brutal, brutal inning for the Yankees.

I forget, is there a mercy rule in the ALCS?

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, top 5th: So with the Yankees picking out a coffin for their season, Eric Chavez comes to the plate. And he takes a seat. Goes down swinging.

That's eight strikeouts for the day.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, top 5th: Russell Martin digs in...and Scherzer makes him look like a Little Leaguer. He goes down swinging as well. (That's 9 Ks)

Can Brett Gardner do any better? Well at least he made contact. By popping up to shallow center.

Did I mention...Scherzer is un-hittable.?

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 5th: Eppley back on the mound for the Yankees. First up is Gerald Laird and he hits it back to the mound...over to first. One out.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 5th: Top of the order for the Tigers now. And Austin Jackson rips a single to left. That brings up Infante, who lines it to center...two outs.

And here comes the "MVP! MVP! MVP!"

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 5th: And Cabrera hits a little looper to short...Nunez leaps for it...but he can't come down with it.

Another error for the Yankees...and that will be all for Eppley.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, bottom 5th: Clay Rapada comes into the game for the Yankees and he faces Prince Fielder with two on and two out.

I'd say it this is a dangerous situation for New York, but we're way past danger.

And Fielder hits into, yes, a fielder's choice to end the inning.

Tigers 6-Yankees 0, top 6th: So we move to the top of the sixth and that brings up Nunez. He hits one deep to left-center....Jackson tracking it down....and it drops! Nunez motors all the way to third.

And that breaks up Scherzer's no-hitter.

But the crowd rightfully gives him a big ovation. He's been masterful today.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 6th: That brings up Ichiro. And he goes down swinging.

So Swisher comes to the plate...and, oh doctor!, he finds the gap in right-center. The second hit of the day and it brings in a run!

I think given the pitiful performance in this series, it's fair to call two hits and one run a Yankee rally.

Tigers 6 - Yankees 1

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 6th: Nick Swisher is at second and Cano comes to the plate. Can the Yankees keep it going?

Nope. Cano grounds out to first. But Swish moves over to third as ButterfingersTexeira steps into the box.

Scherzer walks Tex. And Jim Leyland has seen enough. He goes to the bullpen and Scherzer gets a much-deserved standing O.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 6th: So Drew Smyly comes into the game for Scherzer...and what's this??? Seriously???

Ladies and gentlemen, Alex Rodriguez is going to pinch hit for Ibanez.

Remember him? Used to play for the Yankees...

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 6th: So there are men on the corners and A-Rod comes to the plate. Can he deliver?

Please.

He flies out to center to end the inning.

Hey, thanks for playing, A-Rod. It was good to see you.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, bottom 6th: For the life of me I don't know why Joe Girardi let Rodriguez pinch hit there. I mean, at this point, either start him or let him start packing for Miami. It's so humiliating.

Meanwhile...Joba Chamberlain has come in to pitch for the Yankees and first up is Delmon Young. And the Yankee Killer flies out to right.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, bottom 6th: That brings up Jhonny Peralta, who hit a mhonster home rhun in his last at bat. Peralta hits a grounder to third...Chavez comes up with it...and throws him out at first. Two down.

So Dirks steps in...and he slaps a single to left.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, bottom 6th: With one on and two out, Garcia comes to the plate. And Garcia sends one deeeeep to right-center...Gardner won't get there...it drops. And bounces into the stands for a ground rule double!

Which actually costs the Tigers a run because Dirks has to head back to third.

So Laird steps in...hits one back to Chamberlain. He makes an awkward underhand throw to first...and gets the runner.

Inning over.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 7th: Just as Drew Smyly was about to take the hill, Jason Nix comes in to pinch hit for Chavez. So Leyland will go to his bullpen.

But Smyly's exit seems like the idea time to remind everyone how much legendary Sesame Street game show host Guy Smiley looks like Mitt Romney.


Uncanny, no?

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 7th: That brings Octavio Dotel to the mound for the Tigers. And Nix draws a lead-off walk.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 7th: And oh, what the hell, Girardi's already let A-Rod pinch hit today...why not let Curtis Granderson let the team down? He's in to hit for Russell Martin.

And sure enough...he strikes out. On a weak check swing.

Somehow that would have been a fitting final out for the Yankee season.

Tigers 6-Yankees 1, top 7th: Gardner comes to the plate and takes a quick seat as Dotel rings him up. Two down.

And Nunez flies out to center to end the inning.

The Tigers are now six out away from the World Series...

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, bottom 7th: Derek Lowe is now pitching for the Yankees and he faces Austin Jackson.

And Jackson welcomes him to Comerica Park by taking him deeeeeeeep...home run!

Tigers 7 - Yankees 1

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, bottom 7th: Next up is Infante, who hits a grounder to third. Nix makes the throw...and almost overthrows Texeira! But he pulls it down and gets the out.

That brings up Miguel Cabrera—and brings out the MVP chants. Cabrera hits a moonball to right. Two outs.

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, bottom 7th: Prince Fielder grounds to third. Can Nix make the throw? He can.

Inning over.

But the Tigers tack on another run.

Six more outs for the Yankees...

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, top 8th: Phil Coke is now on the mound for the Tigers and first up is Ichiro. He hits a comebacker to the mound...Coke stops it...over to first. One down.

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, top 8th: Nick Swisher sends one deep to left-center...two down.

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, top 8th: So Cano is the batter. And he drills one between first and second. Fielder is surprisingly agile...gets to it...makes the throw...and gets him by a step!

Inning over.

The Tigers are now three outs away from the World Series.

Tigers 7-Yankees 1, bottom 8th: Joe Girardi sends David Robertson to the mound in the bottom of the eighth—the sixth Yankee pitcher. First up is Delmon Young. And he grounds to Cano for the first out.

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, bottom 8th: Jhonny Peralta at the plate—meaning this will be my last chance to make one more misplaced "H" joke.

And Jhonny goes deeeeeeeep to left again.....GHONE!

Tigers 8 - Yankees 1

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, bottom 8th: Robertson gets Dirks to go down swinging. And that brings up Garcia, who lines it to center...inning over.

And the Yankees are down to their final three outs.

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, bottom 8th: Since I am now preparing to sit shiva for the Yankees' season, if anyone would like to send condolences, I can be reached via Twitter: @Mister_Solomon or email: michael.solomon.freelance.guardian.co.uk.

In lieu of flowers, send Mallomars.

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, top 9th: So here we are in the top of the 9th and the Yankees are three outs away from being swept in the ALCS.

First up is Mark Texeira, who hits a blooper to Peralta at short.

One down.

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, top 9th: And, oh, for the love of Cameron Diaz...here comes A-Rod. And the crowd is letting him hear it.

He hits a dribbler to Peralta at short. And the Yankees are down to their final out.

Nice to see you again, A-Rod.

Tigers 8-Yankees 1, top 9th: As the chants of "Sweep! Sweep! Sweep!" begin, Jason Nix comes to the plate.

He pops it up to first...Prince Fielder waves off everyone in the metro Detroit region...he's under it....and that's the ballgame!

THE TIGERS ARE THE 2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONS!

CHAMPIONS: As much as the Yankees— what's the word I'm looking for?—sucked in this ALCS, the Tigers had a helluva series. Their pitching was dominating and their bats were equally turbo-charged.

And now they get to rest for a few days and await the winner of the Giants-Cardinals. Whoever gets Detroit in the World Series will face a starting rotation that can re-set—and that means Verlander. And a lineup that can re-load.

They're going to Series for the eleventh time in team history with a lot of confidence.

Requiescat In Pace, Yankees: And what can I say about the Yankees that won't be said for the next six months on New York talk radio?

This was a difficult season for them. They lost Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain before it even began, were plagued by other injuries throughout the year, but still managed to hold on and win the AL East.

And then they went into the witness protection program. It's almost hard to believe how cold their bats went—and how fast. But after Derek Jeter went down in the 12th inning of Game 1, well, the rest of the team started making their plans for winter.

It's really a shame for Girardi, who held the team together all season. And then just threw up his hands at the end. But honestly...what could he do? He tried everything.

Unlike his team.

Trophy Time: Jim Leyland, Tigers CEO and GM Dave Dombrowski, and owner Mike Ilitch are now accepting the trophy for winning the American League. Ilitch looks shaky—he's 83—and he appears to be wearing one of Phil Spector's old wigs...but the Little Caesars owner just delivered his city an American League pennant.

These fans love them.

ALCS MVP: Delmon Young is named MVP for the ALCS. He drove in as many runs as the Yankees scored in this series.

Can the Yankee Killer be a National League Killer in the World Series?

Stay tuned for complete Guardian coverage.

Final Thoughts: Thanks to Guardian readers for already sharing their condolences with me. (And their schadenfreude.)

@frytup tweets: "With all due respect for your grief, I'm feeling much better about the A's loss now. These Tigers ain't bad."

Agreed. They played like champions.

@Hologram_Pete tweets: "Yankees on the brink and a Guy Smiley video? Consider my day made."

I'm just here to help, Pete.

Now be sure to follow Hunter Felt's live coverage of Game 4 of the NLCS.

Thanks for joining us.


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St Louis Cardinals 8 - San Francisco Giants 3 - as it happened
October 19, 2012 at 12:28 AM
 

The St. Louis Cardinals are one victory away from the World Series after demolishing the San Francisco Giants in Game 4 of the NLCS.




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3.4% of US adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or trangender, study says
October 18, 2012 at 10:28 PM
 

Over 121,000 people were interviewed for a survey that may be the largest calculation of the nation's LGBT population

A new survey estimates that 3.4% of US adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender, in what may be the largest study ever aimed at calculating the nation's LGBT population.

The Gallup survey released Thursday was based on interviews with more than 121,000 people.

"Contemporary media often think of LGBT people as disproportionately white, male, urban and pretty wealthy," said the report's lead author, demographer Gary Gates of the UCLA School of Law's Williams Institute. "But this data reveal that relative to the general population, the LGBT population has a larger proportion of non-white people and clearly is not overly wealthy."

According to the survey, which was conducted between June and September, 4.6% of African-Americans identify as LGBT, along with 4% of Hispanics, 4.3% of Asians and 3.2% of whites.

Overall, a third of those identifying as LGBT are non-white, the report said.

There was a slight gender difference – 3.6% of women identified as LGBT, compared to 3.3% of men. And younger adults, aged 18 to 29, were more likely than their elders to identify as LGBT.

One striking difference: Among those 18 to 29, 8.3% of women identify as LGBT, compared with 4.6% of men the same age.

In contrast to some previous, smaller studies, the Gallup survey found that identification as LGBT is highest among Americans with the lowest levels of education. Among those with a high school education or less, 3.5% identify as LGBT, compared with 2.8% of those with a college degree and 3.2% of those with postgraduate education.

A similar pattern was found regarding income groups. More than 5% of those with annual incomes of less than $24,000 identify as LGBT, compared to 2.8% of those making more than $60,000 a year.

Among those who report income, about 16% of LGBT individuals have incomes above $90,000 per year, compared with 21% of the overall adult population, the Gallup survey found. It said 35% of those who identify as LGBT report incomes of less than $24,000 a year, compared to 24% for the population in general.

Regarding family status, 20% of LGBT individuals said they are married and an additional 18% are living with a partner; they weren't asked about the gender of those spouses and partners. Among non-LGBT Americans, 54% are married and 4% are living with a partner, the report said.

The survey found that 32% of both LGBT and non-LGBT women have children under 18 in their home. By contrast, 16% of LGBT men had children in their home, compared to 31% of non-LGBT men.

The results were based on responses to the question, "Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender?" included in 121,290 Gallup interviews conducted between June 1 and Sept. 30.

The survey noted that its findings did not account for LGBT people who, for whatever reason, did not want to acknowledge their sexual orientation in the interviews.


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Mitt Romney's advice to business leaders on employee voting – it's legal | Tom McCarthy
October 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM
 

Thanks to the Citizens United ruling, a company telling its workers how to vote is perfectly within the law. But should it be?

A freshly aired audio recording in which Mitt Romney asks business owners to talk with employees about the upcoming election sounds at first like a throwback to the bad old days of voter clientelism. That's the term academics use for the time-honored American practice of trading something nice for political support.

Voters used to be able to get a shot of whiskey or a pair of boots. Now, in the era of expanding corporate rights, you might just get a half-promise not to be fired – as long as you vote the right way.

Romney was speaking on a conference call that was sponsored by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, as part of a series that had previously featured Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. He had been talking about why Barack Obama is bad for business. Then he encouraged employers to "make it very clear to your employees" how they feel about the presidential race:

I hope you make it very clear to your employees what you believe is in the best interest of your enterprise and therefore their job and their future in the upcoming elections. And whether you agree with me or you agree with President Obama, or whatever your political view, I hope — I hope you pass those along to your employees. Nothing illegal about you talking to your employees about what you believe is best for the business, because I think that will figure into their election decision, their voting decision and of course doing that with your family and your kids as well.

The recording, which was first spied by In These Times, has generated consternation on the left. It came to light in the same week that Mike Elk of In These Times reported that the Koch brothers, David and Charles, had sent 45,000 employees packets containing actual lists of candidates supported by Koch Industries. At the top of the list of approved candidates was Mitt Romney.

Is it legal to do this? On the conference call, Romney went out of his way to say that it is, when he said: "Nothing illegal about you talking to your employees..."

Romney has drawn a similar distinction in describing his strategy for paying taxes, saying: "I pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more." In Romneyland, legal compliance is a lofty moral paradigm.

Romney also happens to be right: bosses can talk to employees about who to vote for. Corporations can send political mailings to employees. And since the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court decision, corporations appear to have new freedom to force employees to attend political events like the Romney rally in Beallsville, Ohio, in which coal miners were forced to appear as campaign props.

Citizen United's generous interpretation of corporate speech means that employers "may now be able to compel their employees to listen to their political views at [workplace] meetings on pain of termination," wrote Paul Secunda, an associate law professor at Marquette University, in the Yale Law Journal. "Although federal law does still prevent employers from issuing explicit or implicit threats against employees who vote for the 'wrong' candidate, short of that, nothing prohibits employers from requiring employees to participate in one-sided political propaganda events."

Employees have little real-life protection from aggressive attempts by employers to sway their votes, Secunda said in a phone interview Thursday.

"Workers are facing a constant stream of political pressure, 16 hours a day, a stream of literature," he said. "This stuff has always taken place, especially in the blue-collar workplace. It's generally legal."

The federal voter intimidation statute, which makes it illegal to "intimidate, threaten, or coerce" voters, is rarely called on to protect workers, he said.

"The devil's in the details," Secunda said. "What does it mean to 'intimidate' as far as preventing the right to vote? An express type of threat? Some of these more implicit types of power dynamics don't explicitly meet this high standard."

Some states have their own voter intimidation laws, Secunda said, but a paucity of relevant case law indicates a low level of enforcement.

"Employers are pretty much able to do what they want as far as putting pressure on employees to vote against a certain candidate," he said.

Secunda said a new "Federal Worker Freedom Act" was needed, to prohibit employers from engaging in mandatory political indoctrination. A new law could comply with Citizen United's broad interpretation of corporate speech, he said.

"The focus not on employers' speech," Secunda said. "You can't interfere with that. The focus would be on regulating employer conduct."


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New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers — live!
October 18, 2012 at 9:38 PM
 

• New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: live coverage
• Tigers lead ALCS 3-0
• Share your thoughts via Twitter: @Mister_Solomon
• Or email: michael.solomon.freelance@guardiannews.com
• Update this page by bashing F5 or use our auto-refresher

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 2nd: That brings Eric Chavez to the plate. Can he make up for that weak throw in the last inning? Not a chance. Chavez goes down swinging as well.

That's six up, six down.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, top 2nd: Mark Texeira leads off for New York. And he continues the fine Yankee tradition of popping up for the first out.

And then Raul Ibanez goes down swinging. Two outs.

My colleague David Lengel writes: "The benching and pinch-hitting for A-Rod has gone from trying to shake up the lineup to help the team to some kind of bizarre punishment. If there were a viable option at 3B I would get it, but they shook the tree and nothing fell out. Why not revert to your best possible lineup now? What's to lose? No, this is personal. The Yankees should keep in mind that they were under no legal obligation to offer A-Rod a contract for those years and those dollars."

Oh this is totally personal. Like Jaws: The Revenge.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 1st: With the Tigers threatening, Jhonny Peralta comes to the plate. And Jhonny goes down shwinging.

CC gets out of the jam, but the Tigers have already drawn blood.

Tigers 1-Yankees 0, bottom 1st: And Young makes the Yankees pay early. He drives the ball to right...and it drops! That will score Infante. And now there are runners on first and second, two outs.

Tigers 1 - Yankees 0

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Prince Fielder at the plate and he hits a blooper over Nunez at short. That will put runners on the corners with two outs.

And Yankee killer Delmon Young is coming to the plate...

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: That brings up Cabrera. And the Triple Crown winner takes Sabathia deep to left...but Ichiro is under it. Two down.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Omar Ifante works a full count with Sabathia. Infante hits a dribbler to third—Eric Chavez comes up with it and throws like a six-year-old girl to first! Safe!

Say what you will about A-Rod at the plate, but Infante would have been out by a mile with him at third. Chavez might want to play with some urgency today. You know, like, as if the season were on the line.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, bottom 1st: Well after that first half of the inning, it's really going to be up to Sabathia today. Austin Jackson is up first. And he pops up to Cano.

One out.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Our next victim is Robinson Cano. For all the blame that A-Rod has taken in this post-season, let's not forget that Cano is batting a tragic .067.

Or whatever the new number will be now that he has struck out.

Three up, three down.

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Nick Swisher at the plate. Coincidentally, "swish" is the same sound his bat made when he missed on that third strike. Two down.

It's early but Scherzer looks unhittable today

Yankees 0 - Tigers 0, top 1st: Ichiro Suzuki is first up for the Yankees—and Scherzer throws him a pitch worthy of Nuke LaLoosh. That ball bounced behind him. But Scherzer settles down, takes Ichiro to a full count, and gets him to pop up to third. One out.

Today's weather: It's 59 degrees today in Detroit. And partly cloudy.

Keep an umbrella handy.

Limp bats: How poorly are the Yankees hitting? As a team, they're right at the Mendoza Line—.200.

But that's not necessarily bad news. In 1962, the Yankees hit .199 in the post-season—and won the World Series.

Also, the Cardinals are hitting .198 right now. And they seem to be doing okay.

Lineups:

NEW YORK YANKEES
1. Ichiro Suzuki, LF
2. Nick Swisher, RF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B
5. Raul Ibanez, DH
6. Eric Chavez, 3B
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Brett Gardner, CF
9. Eduardo Nunez, SS

CC Sabathia, LHP

DETROIT TIGERS

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Andy Dirks, LF
8. Avisail Garcia, RF
9. Gerald Laird, C

Max Scherzer, RHP

Preamble: Since the thunder has disappeared from the Yankees' bats this post-season, they had to rely on actual thunder on Wednesday. Or at least the threat of it. With Game 4 of the ALCS postponed on account of rain in the forecast, New York got a stay of execution from the weathermen last night.

Not that Yankee fans didn't have plenty of important things to keep themselves occupied with yesterday. Alex Rodriguez was to have been benched again last night, but he put up Hall of Fame numbers when it came to important news stories.

For instance…would A-Rod be sent to the Marlins? (Keith Olbermann said yes. Brian Cashman said no.)

How would "A Rod" the horse do at Belmont Park? Let's put it this way: I think Derek Jeter could have beaten him in a race. (Too soon?) He finished seventh out of a field eight. But at least he wasn't scratched.

And most important: Would the "Saucy Aussie" that A-Rod was hitting on during Saturday's game get a chance to dance at the New York strip club Scores? Clearly a pole poll is called for here.

Oh yes—and there's apparently a baseball game to be played today. Unless...oh sweet Lord!...is that a cloud near Comerica Park? Start lining up the animals in pairs!

Sorry...where was I?

Neither Joe Girardi nor Jim Leyland have altered their lineups from yesterday—which means that Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson will both have a nice view from the dugout today. Max Scherzer will be on the mound for the Tigers and CC Sabathia will have to save the Yankees' season yet again.

Can he do it? We shall see see.

Email your thoughts, predictions, and eulogies for the Yankees to michael.solomon.freelance@guardian.co.uk. Or tweet @Mister_Solomon

First pitch is minutes away. Starting lineups are coming up soon.


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Google shares suspended after accidental email wipes $22bn off value
October 18, 2012 at 9:28 PM
 

Search engine's unfinished financial release inadvertently sent, revealing quarterly results well below Wall Street expectations

It was the printer's error that wiped $22bn from the value of the world's biggest search engine. Shares in Google were suspended after an accidental email to the US stock market authorities revealed that the company's latest quarterly results were far below Wall Street's demanding expectations.

The inadvertent – and clearly unfinished – financial release began with the words "PENDING LARRY QUOTE" – referring to the company's chief executive, Larry Page, whose job, normally, would be to put the best gloss on the financial figures. But he was likely to be offering different sentiments after the stock tumbled 9% before trading was halted.

Company results circulate internally for several days as they are being prepared for public release to strict timetables, normally under strict secrecy. Leaks of the figures are extremely rare, but on this occasion Google tersely blamed financial printers RR Donnelly for filing its draft third quarter results "without authorisation".

Compounding the situation was the fact that Google's figures missed expected profits and a showed a big slowdown in revenue growth for its main search engine advertising business. The company had little choice but to suspend trading in its nosediving shares.

The surprisingly poor figures also point towards the challenging future that has already hobbled Facebook's stock after its dismal flotation earlier this year: the problem of making money from mobile advertising as users shift from the desktop to the smartphone to do their searching.

The figures showed that Google earned $9.03 per share in the third quarter – notably below analysts' consensus estimates of $10.63. Its search engine revenues were also below expectations, hitting $11.5bn (£7bn) where analysts had expected it to show $11.9bn (£7.38bn).

Nevertheless, even Google's misfiring revenues showed 19% growth from the same period last year. But, critically, that was a substantial slowing for a business that had consistently shown revenue growth since the end of 2009, when the global financial crisis was at its deepest.

A key reason for the revenue and profit miss seemed to be a fall in "cost per click" – the amount that advertisers pay when people click on Google's adverts. Google said that such revenues fell by 15% year on year and by 3% compared with the second quarter, even while the number of "paid clicks" grew 33% year on year.

Advertising rates for mobile phone advertising are typically lower than on desktop computers – rates that are in turn lower than for printed media. At the same time, as noted by Ben Schachter from Macquarie Securities, people used search engines less for the first time since anybody began tracking data showing their use – because people are discovering new content via apps on iPhones and other smart devices. That also suggests that the widespread shift to mobile use which has affected Facebook's prospects is starting to affect Google too.

Another concern for Google will be the upwards creep in "traffic acquisition costs" (TAC) - the money that it pays to external websites to direct traffic to its search engines. That has risen as a proportion of advertising revenue from a low of 23.7% a year ago to 26% – back towards the 30% figure that it saw at the end of 2007. The higher the proportion, the higher the drag on profits on a search engine. Those too may come from Google's mobile business, where it pays money to Apple for some positions on the iPhone, and to some mobile carriers.

Charlie Kindel, a former Microsoft engineer who worked on its Windows Phone development, commented on Twitter that Google might have to start focusing on ways to make its free Android mobile operating system pay. He said: "Mark my words: a few more quarters like this, Amazon doing well with Kindle, and Google's approach to Android will quickly change." Amazon uses its own version of Android, stripped so that Google gets no ad revenue, in its Kindle Fire tablet.

But Clark Fredricksen, vice-president of eMarketer, which tracks the online advertising business, said that despite the setback he feels that Google is in a strong position because of its underlying strength. Google remains dominant in search, with a 74.5% share of the US search ad market, according to eMarketer. In Europe, its market share is more than 95% – and the overall digital advertising market in the US grew by 17.7% in the third quarter of 2012.

Fredricksen added: "The company now holds the largest more revenue than any other company in the US search, display and mobile advertising markets, respectively – and the company's market share in each category is expected to grow in the coming years.

"Particularly in the mobile arena, Google holds a commanding lead over all other players, taking home more than half of all US mobile ad revenues. The nearest competitor, Pandora, takes home less than 10% of the market."

Meanwhile, a sheepish printer said it was "fully engaged in an investigation to determine how this event took place and are pursuing our first obligation – which is to serve our valued customer". Its shares fell too in the wake of the Google leak – but only by 2%.

Tech giants lose their touch

The titans of Silicon Valley are beginning to lose their air of invincibility. Since Google's initial public offering in 2004, American technology companies had enjoyed an unprecedented run of good fortune, culminating in Apple's overthrow of oil giant Exxon Mobil as the world's most valuable business. But one by one, through a combination of greed, hubris and clerical error, the masters of the technology universe have been shooting themselves in the foot.

First came Facebook's catastrophic initial public offering, when early investors cashed in their chips at too high a price. The shares skidded remorselessly downwards, and now trade at half their float value.

In September, it was Apple's turn. The launch of the iPhone 5 lit up the internet, and sales have been spectacular, but within days of its arrival in the shops the company's chief executive Tim Cook had apologised for forcing a substandard mapping service on his customers. By giving Dublin and imaginary airport and turning Helsinki railway station into a park, Apple had proved itself capable of releasing a poorly designed, unfinished product. Now Google has made the same mistake, in the form of its latest financial results.

Juliette Garside


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Walmart supply chain: warehouse staff agencies accused of wage theft
October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM
 

'They prey on people living on the edge,' claim workers, who are already among the most vulnerable and lowest-paid in America

Phillip Bailey knows there are people worse off than him working inside the gigantic Walmart warehouse that dominates the small town of Elwood in rural Illinois.

He sleeps at a Catholic hostel in nearby Joliet and so has a solid roof over his head after a day of helping the endless flow of consumer goods supplying Walmart stores across America. Not all his colleagues can say that. One squatted in abandoned houses. Another lived rough in the woods in between work shifts. "He just set up a tent in there for a few weeks," Bailey said.

Bailey is a warehouse worker in the outsourced Walmart supply chain that criss-crosses America, part of one of the most vulnerable workforces in the US. Bailey and his colleagues work for low pay and minimal benefits. Their recruitment is subcontracted out to myriad staffing agencies, and working conditions and can involve tough, repetitive manual labour. Critics say it is a labour market reminiscent of countries like China, yet exists here in the American heartland of the midwest.

But Bailey and many other Walmart warehouse workers say they have to endure an especially shocking hardship: wage theft. Already very low paid, they allege their pay packets are sometimes skimmed and squeezed by the staffing agencies subcontracted to employ them.

"They prey on people living in precarious marginal circumstances. People living on the edge. If that was not the case, they could not do what they do," Bailey said.

The former green energy worker from Detroit has now joined a class action lawsuit recently filed against Roadlink Workforce Solutions, who supply staff to Walmart's Elwood warehouse. The case alleges numerous ways in which wages are stolen or underpaid.

One method is for workers to be asked to appear for a shift only to be sent home when not chosen for work. Despite turning up at 6.45am or earlier, they say they often receive no pay for their time. Elsewhere, workers say they are paid no overtime, or have time worked rounded down to the nearest whole hour. They also say retaliation for speaking out is common, which also results in lost wages.

After the suit was first filed, Bailey said, he was sent home early from his shift, seeing his pay packet cut. Another Roadlink worker at Elwood who is joining the complaint, Holly Kent-Payne, 25, said that she has simply not been paid for one day's work. "My first pay check, they did not pay me for a whole day. That's a whole day of my life gone," she said.

A spokesman for RWS declined to comment on the case.

But the suit against Roadlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Since 2009 there have been five previous suits filed against five different staffing companies who feed workers into the 3.4m sq ft Elwood warehouse. Of those cases, two have been confidentially settled. They, too, described wage theft.

'It is not easy to get by'

Leticia Rodrigues worked at Elwood at the end of last year. She says she found herself often being paid by the task – effectively per truck or shipment of goods. Often jobs were so large she had to get other workers to help or take extra hours on her own time. That meant her wages dipped below the legal hourly minimum. "It would happen two or three days out of a four day week," she said.

Meanwhile, Robert Hines, who worked at Elwood in 2010, also says he was a victim of wage theft at Elwood. He described being asked to show up when no work was forthcoming. Hines says he was summoned into the warehouse, getting up at 4.30am to arrive at 5.30am, and was then finally being inspected by managers at 7am. Then, he says, he – along with most other workers brought in – were sent home as all the available shifts had been doled out. There was no compensation for their time. "I felt like an idiot. That's my time. That's less money to feed my family, less money to put clothes on their backs," said Hines, 39.

There is little doubt that the workforce recruited for the warehouse industry – whether in Illinois, or in other major hubs like New Jersey, or the Inland Empire in California – is highly vulnerable. Many do not stay on the job for longer than a couple months. Few last a year.

Mike Compton, 36, works in Elwood but has spent time living in abandoned houses in Joliet. "I found one abandoned house that had working electricity still. And a fridge," he said. He reckons that if he worked all 52 weeks of the year – he has no paid vacation – he would bring home a total annual salary of just $15,000. "It is not easy to get by," said Compton.

Workers' rights campaigners say the Walmart supply chain is set up in a way that makes wage theft likely. They say Walmart's vast commercial power and relentless focus on driving down costs squeezes the margins of firms it subcontracts its supply chain out to. Those firms, in turn, squeeze their own subcontractors as they eke out a profit. At the bottom of this process are the workers.

The Elwood warehouse, for example, only shifts Walmart goods. But it is run by logistics giant Schneider. In turn, Schneider outsources most staffing to recruitment agencies. Those layers of outsourcing, critics say, have led to an exploitative industry where wage theft becomes part of the system.

"There are lots of low-skilled, low-paid workers and its easy for employers to chisel away at them. Wage theft is rampant in this industry. It is a perfect storm for wage theft," said Cathy Ruckelshaus, an expert on the warehousing industry at the National Employment Law Project.

Leah Fried, an activist with Warehouse Workers for Justice which is seeking to organise warehouse employees in Elwood, was more blunt. "Is it their business model to rob people? Because it seems that way," she said.

A good business model?

Stopping that practice is the aim behind the repeated lawsuits against wage theft. Chicago lawyer Chris Williams, who lodged the Roadlink suit, said such legal steps were often the only recourse for workers unaware of their rights or afraid to speak out. "The hope is Walmart and its subcontractors will decide this is not a good business model because they keep getting sued," he said.

Schneider spokeswoman Janet Bonkowski said the firm held its subcontractors to high standards. "When we utilize third-party vendors, we contractually require full compliance with all required laws and that all parties conduct business ethically," she said.

Walmart spokesman Dan Fogleman pointed out that Walmart was not named in the RWS suit and had taken steps to police standards in its supply chain. "We take allegations of workplace issues very seriously," he said. Fogleman added the firm had not uncovered any systemic problems, but is drawing up a protocol for third-party run warehouses in the future that will include random inspections by an independent group.

But there has already been worker unrest at Elwood. Recently hundreds of workers and supporters gathered outside the gates of the gigantic facility and held a rally. Police in riot gear were called and several people were arrested, including local religious leader Pastor Craig Purchase.

"The system is a modern version of sweatshop labour from the early days. I had to get involved," he said. His arrest was the first time he had ever been detained by police.

Elsewhere in the US, conditions in the outsourced parts of the Walmart supply chain have also been the focus of protest. In the Inland Empire in California, a lawsuit was launched at a Schneider-run warehouse in Mira Loma that alleged wage theft by staffing agencies hired by the company to recruit workers.

At other warehouses in southern California, unsafe working conditions have been the subject of complaints to the state's labour board, and there have also been walkouts, strikes, and a six-day "march to the sea" by scores of warehouse workers trying to highlight their complaints.

Critics say that Walmart has a responsibility to these workers, even though it keeps responsibility for them at arm's length by layers of subcontracting. "Walmart knows there is a problem," said Ruckelshaus.

Certainly Bailey sees Walmart as the ultimate beneficiary of the wages he says are lost to Roadlink. The sums are not much – just a few dollars here and there as hours are rounded down or he is summoned for work and then turned away. But for him, already caught in desperately hard times, they mean an immense amount. "It is a big chunk of change for someone in my circumstances," he said. "It is my money, but they treat us like prison labour."


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Meningitis outbreak: link to shots from Massachusetts company confirmed
October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM
 

Fungus found in tainted steroid shots matches New England Compounding Center as death toll from infection climbs to 20

The fungus found in tainted steroid shots matches the one blamed in the US meningitis outbreak that has killed 20 people, federal health officials said Thursday.

Officials said they have confirmed the link between the outbreak and the maker of the steroids, New England Compounding Center of Framingham, Massachusetts.

The specialty pharmacy has been at the center of a national investigation into more than 250 fungal meningitis cases.

The victims had all received steroid shots made by the company, mostly to treat back pain. The company last month recalled three lots of the steroid made since May. As many as 14,000 people got shots from the three recalled lots.

The fungus was found in one batch made in August, according to the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The FDA and CDC said tests were continuing on the other two lots.

The fungus in the vials Exserohilum rostratum is the same as that found in at least 40 people sickened with fungal meningitis, said the CDC's Mary Brandt, whose lab did the testing.

The announcement did not say how many vials had that specific fungus.


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A-Rod by the numbers: explaining the decline of a damned New York Yankee | Harry J Enten
October 18, 2012 at 7:17 PM
 

If you're no Yankees fan, you're no fan of Alex Rodriguez – which makes it fun to work out why his post-season stinks

The New York Yankees are, thankfully, one game away from elimination. They play the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon in a game that may put their fans out of their misery. Fans of all that is good, however, are cheering their likely demise.

The Yankees struggles are mostly due to a lack of offensive production. And although it is not one player's fault, most of the resultant press has been focused on third baseman Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod, as he is known to most, is the team's best-paid player. This year alone he is earning an earth-shattering $29m.

That $29m is more than most make in a lifetime. It's $170,000 per game, including the post-season – in addition to any post-season bonus. I'm not one to fault a man for getting paid what the market dictates what he's worth, but the problem is that A-Rod is clearly not worth the money he's making.

The stats

1. $453,000

The dollar amount A-Rod is earning per hit this post-season. The Yankees' third baseman has a combined three hits in seven games in the American League Division and Championship Series. That's good enough for a .130 batting average. I don't need to tell baseball fans how bad that is, but for those unfamiliar with baseball, Steve Urkel had a higher success rate with women.

2. $113,000

The dollar amount A-Rod is making per strikeout this post-season. Rodriguez has struck out a staggering 12 times in 25 plate appearances, a strikeout 48% of the time. The player with the most strikeouts during the regular season, Chicago White Sox's Adam Dunn, struck out only 34% of the time.

3. $1.4 million

The dollar amount A-Rod is getting per run scored this post-season. The $29m man has scored one run. One! Even with the Yankees' anemic offense, they've still managed to plate 21 runs across two series. That means A-Rod has scored 5% of the Yankee runs this post-season.

4. Infinity

The dollar amount A-Rod is taking per run batted in this post-season. Yes, RBI is an overrated statistic but you should still expect your top-paid man to knock in some runs. He hasn't and you can't divide a number by zero.

5. Infinity again

The dollar amount A-Rod is paid per extra base-hit this post-season. A-Rod and I share this one in common. We both haven't gotten a double, triple or home run in either the American League Division or Championship Series. There is no other word than pathetic for this one.

These numbers tell us how bad Alex Rodriguez is playing. The question then is why is his performance lacking? There are five reasons that I can gather. Some are more serious than others, but they all point in the direction of a lousy post-season for A-Rod.

The imponderables

1. Women

Look, I get it. Straight men are distracted by the idea of a good time with the opposite sex. I paused on my way to the coffee shop when I saw a blonde in the crêpe store window. That's no excuse, however, for Rodriguez giving out his digits to a girl during Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, even if she is an Australian bikini model.

2. Lack of steroids

We all know that Alex was on the juice in previous years. Maybe his downturn is because he just isn't getting that extra push? Donald Trump has pushed the theory. And we all know that when The Donald has a hypothesis it could possibly be true, unless it has anything to do with President Obama.

3. Age

It's something that happens to all of us. Rodriguez is 37. His regular season was also down this year. Most players decline once they hit 30. It might just be that Alex is heading towards the greener pastures of the broadcast booth – or the nightclubs with his bikini models.

4. Lack of clutch

Statistics tells us that there really isn't such a thing as "clutch". Statistics have never met Alex Rodriguez. Outside of an amazing 2009 post-season, A-Rod is hitting just .241 with seven home runs and 23 RBI over 59 post-season games. That, folks, is the definition of ugly and this year's statistics are no exception.

5. A voodoo curse

I'll admit it. I try anything I can to get the Yankees to lose. I recently bought a Yankee voodoo doll. It doesn't have A-Rod's number on the back, but it could help to explain his troubles and those of the Yankee hitters overall.

Whatever the cause of Alex Rodriguez's trouble, this much is certain: he stinks this post-season and could very well be on his way to Miami next year, if the rumors are to be believed.


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New York bomb plot: Bangladeshi suspect's family shocked by son's arrest
October 18, 2012 at 7:12 PM
 

Father of Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis says he can't believe his son was part of alleged plot blow up bank

The family of the Bangladeshi man accused of trying to blow up New York's Federal Reserve have expressed disbelief over his involvement in the FBI sting operation.

Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis's relatives said he had spoken with them just hours before he was arrested in lower Manhattan, giving an update on his studies and seeming "calm".

Nafis is accused of attempting to detonate a bomb created with fake explosives provided by the FBI. An undercover agent supplied Nafis with 1,000lbs of fake explosives and travelled with the 21-year-old to the Federal Reserve. Reports on Thursday suggested Nafis had also considered targeting President Barack Obama before settling on the New York bank.

"My son couldn't have done it," Nafis's father, Quazi Ahsanullah, told the Associated Press. Ahsanullah said Nafis was a timid man who was sometimes wary of leaving the house alone.

"He used to take someone to go the roof at night. I can't believe he could be part of [the plot]," Ahsanullah said.

Nafis's family said he had travelled to the US to study business administration, not to carry out terrorist attacks. Ahsanullah said his son had convinced him to send him to America for college, arguing that with a degree from an American school he had a better chance at succeeding in Bangladesh.

"I spent all my savings to send him to America," Ahsanullah said.

But while Nafis's father described him as "very gentle and devoted to his studies", pointing to Nafis' time at the private North South University in Dhaka, Bangladesh, a spokesman for the university said Nafis had been a poor student who had eventually dropped out.

Belal Ahmed told Associated Press that Nafis was a terrible student who was put on probation and threatened with expulsion if he didn't bring his grades up. Nafis finally just stopped coming to school, Ahmed said.

The FBI revealed it had arrested Nafis on Wednesday afternoon. It said Nafis had "actively sought out al-Qaida contacts within the US to assist in carrying out an attack", and in the process of that search had come across an undercover FBI agent posing as an al-Qaida facilitator.

The agent supplied the "explosives" and met Nafis at a warehouse on Wednesday morning. The two then drove to the Federal Reserve, located a few blocks from the World Trade Center, in a van loaded with the 1,000lb inert bomb. Nafis and the agent parked the van and walked to a nearby hotel, where Nafis unsuccessfully attempted to remotely detonate the explosives, the FBI said. He was arrested by agents from the joint terrorism task force at the scene.

Federal authorities said Nafis had begun seeking out al-Qaida contacts soon after he arrived in the US in January this year. On Thursday it emerged that Nafis attended Southeast Missouri State University for the spring semester, which ended in May, studying a bachelor's degree in cybersecurity. A university spokeswoman said Nafis had requested a transfer of his records in July and the university complied, although she could not say where the records were sent.

Associated Press, citing an unnamed source, reported on Thursday that Nafis had considered targeting Barack Obama before settling on the Federal Reserve, one of the most fortified buildings in the city which holds a portion of the US gold reserves. The source "stressed that the suspect never got beyond the discussion stage" in planning to attack the president, AP said.

CBS News reported on Thursday that federal officials were present at the New York home where Nafis had been staying, a red-brick building in the Jamaica area of Queens. The owner of the building, Rafiqul Islam, told the news channel that Nafis was staying with his second-floor tenants, who said he was related to the family.

"I didn't notice anything, he spoke to me very quietly," he said. "He said he was going to be studying here," Islam said, adding that Nafis had been living there for about a month. CBS said there was no answer at the door to Nafis's apartment.


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Twitter blocks neo-Nazi account in Germany
October 18, 2012 at 7:05 PM
 

US firm says it has complied with request from authorities which have been monitoring activities of Besseres Hannover

Twitter has blocked the account of a neo-Nazi group that is accused of inciting hatred towards foreigners.

In what amounts to an unprecedented move for the company, Twitter announced it had complied with a request by German authorities who have been monitoring the activities of the banned far-right group Besseres Hannover (Better Hanover) for some time.

The San Francisco-based company said it had used a device developed earlier this year to monitor content. "We announced the ability to withhold content back in Jan," Twitter's lawyer, Alex Macgillivray, tweeted. "We're using it now for the first time re: a group deemed illegal in Germany."

The move came after an investigation into about 20 members of the neo-Nazi group in Lower Saxony, northern Germany, after they were charged with inciting racial hatred and forming a criminal organisation. The group was banned last month by the state's interior ministry. In particular the group, which is estimated to have around 40 active members, stands accused of being behind a threatening video that was sent to the social affairs minister of Lower Saxony, Aygül Özkan.

Macgillivray posted a link to the letter the firm received from German police requestingTwitter to close the account "immediately and without opening a replacement account". In a further tweet he wrote that the company aimed to comply with the law as well as retaining its status as a platform for free speech. "Never want to withhold content; good to have tools to do it narrowly & transparently," he wrote.

Besseres Hannover has been watched by the authorities for past four years after drawing attention to itself through various anti-foreigner campaigns. Its account, @hannoverticker now carries the notice "withheld".

Dirk Hensen, a Twitter spokesman, said the contents of Besseres Hannover tweets were still available outside Germany because the German police did not have the jurisdiction to request bans overseas. The group's website has also been blocked.

The Hamburger Abendblatt described Twitter as "walking on a tightrope" in its attempts to preserve free speech as well as complying with the law, particularly in the light of the Arab spring during which opposition groups made use of Twitter despite mounting pressure on the firm by governments to block accounts.

It is working together with an anti-censorship group called Chilling Effects to publish requests it receives to withhold content, except where it is legally prohibited from doing so.


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France and Germany divided over European economic policy
October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM
 

François Hollande and Angela Merkel at loggerheads on first day of EU summit over demands for a "budgets tsar"

France and Germany were locked in their worst showdown of the three-year euro crisis on Thursday evening, split between two conflicting approaches, with Berlin leading the charge for draconian new centralised powers over national budgets and Paris spearheading a campaign for quicker and easier bailouts of struggling countries and banks.

French president François Hollande, appearing at only his third EU summit in Brussels after having thrown down the gauntlet to Angela Merkel this week in an interview with the Guardian and other European newspapers, flatly dismissed German demands for a new European "budgets tsar" who would be able to overrule national governments and parliaments on tax-and-spend policies in the eurozone.

"The topic of this summit is not the fiscal union but the banking union, so the only decision that will be taken is to set up a banking union by the end of the year and especially the banking supervision," Hollande said. "Merkel has her own deadline, in September 2013," he added caustically, referring to next year's general election in which the German leader is seeking a third term.

The two leaders met before the summit began on Thursday to try to iron out their differences. They were seen walking together grim-faced into the summit room, with Hollande speaking to Merkel and the chancellor appearing to say 'no' three times.

The summit sought to come up with an agreement on putting the European Central Bank in charge of supervising the eurozone banking sector by the start of next year, Hollande's key demand.

Germany, which is dragging its feet on the banking supervisor despite having proposed the move in June, revived calls for an independent European budgets tsar based at the European Commission who would enjoy sweeping powers of enforcing fiscal rectitude by overruling national governments' and parliaments' budgetary policies.

"We are of the opinion, and I speak for the whole German government on this, that we could go a step further by giving Europe real rights of intervention in national budgets," Merkel told parliament in Berlin before arriving in Brussels.

The draft summit conclusions stipulated the aim of launching the banking supervisor in January next year, but Merkel was said to be trying to get that deadline altered or removed. "Quality must come before speed," she said. "There are a lot of very complicated legal questions."

Senior diplomats described the stand-off between France and Germany as substantive, but also entailing "a lot of smoke and mirrors", with both sides engaged in setting out strong positions before having to climb down at a later stage.

In the Guardian interview this week Hollande lambasted Merkel's crisis management over the past 30 months, arguing that the German fixation on austerity and debt reduction was making matters worse in the eurozone by triggering recession.

He is known to believe that Merkel is not listening to him, nor to the leaders of Spain or Italy. His clarion call is the need for greater "solidarity" in the eurozone.

"The Germans are telling the others that if you want solidarity, then this is the price you have to pay, we take control of your budget through a super-commissioner," said a senior EU diplomat. "The Germans are playing hardball. But the French and the Germans will have to do a deal. And they always do. Otherwise [the euro] collapses."

No breakthrough or deal was expected at the summit, though, because the leaders feel that the pressure from the financial markets on the euro and on borrowing costs for countries like Spain and Italy has lifted.

Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president chairing the summit, hoped to finesse an overall agreement on the banking supervisor. But the new system is highly technical and complex. Even if the leaders reached an outline deal on the project, it will take months at least to iron out the detail, making it unlikely that the regime will be up and running by January as planned.

The summit also "explored" two new proposals from Van Rompuy aimed at stabilising the euro — a system of annual "contracts" struck between eurozone governments and the European Commission committing governments to reforms of their labour markets and other structural changes, as well as the establishment of a new eurozone "budget" that would be used to cushion the impact of the structural reforms and also as a redistribution mechanism within the single currency area.

The eurozone budget idea is contested, albeit still vague. The notion originates from Berlin which sees it as a way to deflect pressure for a more comprehensive system of "eurobonds", pooling the debt of the eurozone countries.

Despite conflicting pressures on Spain over whether to request a bailout, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who has an election in his native area of Galicia on Sunday, was not expected to ask for help. Behind the scenes the French-led camp is urging him to take a bailout, while the Germans are pushing him to resist because Merkel hopes to avoid taking the request to her parliament less than a year before seeking re-election.

Hollande is also insisting that the eurozone spell out the terms involved in a Spanish bailout before any request is tabled, while the Germans stick to the line that the request must come first and then the conditions negotiated.

Diplomats expect Spain to ask for a rescue before the end of the year and predict that the negotiations over it will be the toughest by far in the three-year euro and sovereign debt crisis.


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Google shares suspended after accidental release of earnings result
October 18, 2012 at 6:32 PM
 

Third-quarter figures show big miss against expected profits and slowdown in revenue growth

Google's shares have been suspended after its third-quarter earnings results were accidentally released early and showed a big miss against expected profits and radical slowdown in revenue growth.

The results, which leaked out at 12.31 ET (17.31 BST), came out while the stock market was still open, rather than their scheduled time of 17.30 ET.

Figures filed with the SEC began with the phrase "PENDING LARRY QUOTE" – clearly implying that the document released was not completely ready.

The figures showed that the company had earned $9.03 per share in the third quarter – notably below analysts' consensus estimates of $10.63.

Google blamed its printers for the leak, saying that RR Donnelley had filed a draft earnings statement to the SEC "without authorization". The company said it had ceased the trading of its shares whilst working to "finalize the document" – and said it would hold its earnings call at 1.30pm PT as promised.

Revenues were also below expectations, hitting $11.3bn (£7bn) where analysts had expected it to show $11.9bn (£7.38bn). That was a 16% growth from the same period last year – a substantial slowing when the company has been showing revenue growth of more than 20% since the end of 2009, when the financial crisis was at its deepest.

A key reason for the revenue and profit miss seemed to be that people are paying less in "cost-per-click" adverts, suggesting that the widespread shift to mobile use which has affected Facebook's prospects is starting to affect Google too. Analysts say that the number of searches carried out through desktop computers in the US peaked earlier this year as more and more people use smartphones for searches.


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Mauritanian mystery deepens as speculation grows about coup cover-up
October 18, 2012 at 6:25 PM
 

Opponents claim shooting of President Abdel Aziz at a checkpoint was not an accident but a botched coup

The Mauritanian government stands accused of a cover-up as further claims emerge of events surrounding the shooting of the president, with growing allegations of an attempted coup.

Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz was rushed to hospital last weekend after having been shot in the stomach by military guards, apparently by accident, after passing through a checkpoint 25 miles from the capital, Nouakchott, following a trip into the desert.

A source told the Guardian that Basep, the controversial and powerful presidential guard, also ferried a number of unidentified injured people and dead bodies to the same military hospital.

The source, who asked not to be identified, said explanations for the casualties do not tally with the government account. "The number of dead and injured cannot be explained," the source said.

The claims could further fuel speculation that the shooting was a failed coup attempt. Abdel Aziz grabbed power in a coup in 2008 but his iron grip has become increasingly unpopular.

"We don't believe the official version at all, this was an unsuccessful attempt at a coup d'etat by dissatisfied factions within the army," said Alassane Dia, from protest group Ne Touche Pas à ma Nationalité ("hands off my nationality").

"The situation in Mauritania is very complicated. There is huge dissatisfaction with the regime – it promotes racism and slavery, there is brutal repression of dissidents, the economy is in a dire state, politics is completely closed, and the security situation is very unstable."

The shooting follows months of turbulence for Mauritania, an Islamic country which borders northern Mali, where al-Qaida-linked groups control vast swaths of territory.

Around 100,000 refugees from Mali have fled into Mauritania, which has a population of 3.5 million, just as the country struggles with a food crisis engulfing the region.

Some business analysts also believe the shootings were evidence of an attempted coup, warning companies to prepare for further political unrest.

"We assess that given growing opposition to Abdel Aziz and Mauritania's long history of military coups, the shooting was more likely to have been a botched attempt to depose Aziz," wrote Zaineb Al-Assam of Exclusive Analysis in a briefing (pdf) to firms involved in Mauritania's £230m ($375m) a year mining sector.

Opposition to Abdel Aziz – including from members of his previously loyal tribe the Oulad Bou Sbaa – and from black Mauritanians who accuse the government of institutional racism and slavery, has been growing in recent months, with a wave of street protests and increasingly vocal opposition.

Mauritania's military is under pressure following the political implosion in neighbouring Mail and attacks on Mauritanian soil by al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which has infiltrated the the porous desert borders.

Power in Mauritania under Abdel Aziz, a career military man, lies largely with the armed forces, with reports that the state is being run on an interim basis by Army Chief of Staff General Mohamed Ould Ghazouani while the president recovers in a French hospital.

"This is just further evidence that in reality the regime is a military regime hiding behind a civilian regime," added Alassane Dia. "There are elements in the army that are marginalised and that want to return the country to some kind of normality; because there is nothing normal about the country at the moment."

Abdel Aziz is recovering at the Percy-Clamart military hospital in Paris, where he has appeared in photographs on a government website meeting the French defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Bloggers claim the photos of the president in apparently rude health appear heavily doctored, casting further suspicion on the official version of events.


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Defense of Marriage Act found to be unconstitutional by New York court
October 18, 2012 at 6:06 PM
 

Judges rule in favour of 83-year-old Edith Windsor, who argued that the law discriminates against married gay couples

A US appeals court in New York on Thursday ruled that a US law defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman unconstitutionally denies federal benefits to lawfully married same-sex couples.

The second US circuit court of appeals is now the second federal appeals court to reject part of the Defense of Marriage Act. It upheld a lower court ruling that had found a central part of the law unconstitutional.

Appeals in several cases are currently pending before the US supreme court, which could choose to take up the issue in its current term.

Two members of a three-judge panel ruled in favor of Edith Windsor, an 83-year old woman who argued that the 1996 law discriminates against gay couples in violation of the constitution.


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Merkel and Hollande in EU summit peace talks - live
October 18, 2012 at 5:48 PM
 

Leaders of France and Germany hold unscheduled meeting at start of Brussels summit, hours after tens of thousands of people march in Athens




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Koch-backed activists use power of data in drive to oust Obama from White House
October 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM
 

Americans for Prosperity building sophisticated digital tools to target swing-state moderates and spread anti-Obama message

Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party-aligned group part-funded by the billionaire Koch brothers, is building a state-of-the-art digital ground operation in Ohio and other vital battleground states to spread its anti-Obama message to voters who could decide the outcome of the presidential election.

The group hopes that by creating a local army of activists equipped with sophisticated online micro-targeting tools it will increase its impact on moderate voters, nudging them towards a staunchly conservative position opposed to President Obama's economic and healthcare policies. Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is spending tens of millions of dollars developing its local strategy, already employing more than 200 permanent staff in 32 states.

Classified a non-profit "social welfare" organisation, AFP is legally obliged to project itself as a non-partisan campaign that neither endorses nor opposes candidates for public office. But there is no disguising its targets, nor their political nature.

In Ohio, volunteers are given a script which they follow when engaging voters. "President Obama took office three years ago and promised to fix our economy," they say, "yet unemployment is still high and our debt is up to $6tn."

AFP has already spent $30m so far this election cycle in opposing President Obama and other prominent Democratic candidates and their policies. It says it aims to reach up to 9 million targeted voters in crucial swing states, through the efforts of its 2 million activists.

But it is ambitions do not stop on election day on 6 November. "The goal is to build a long-term grassroots infrastructure," its president, Tim Phillips, told the Guardian. "We are not some election-year group desperately trying to ramp up attention – we are in this year-in year-out to make a difference in favour of economic freedom."

AFP's growing influence is highly visible in Ohio, one of the most crucial battleground states upon which November's outcome depends. It now has 80 paid staff operating in the state out of seven permanent offices.

Volunteers are empowered with mobile canvassing technology that directs them to the households that are most likely to be influenced by AFP's message of small government and tax cuts through software built on to handheld tablet computers. They are also equipped with the latest phone banking technology through which they have made 400,000 calls to Ohio's voters since May.

AFP's funding status allows it to raise unlimited sums from undisclosed sources, among them David and Charles Koch, brothers whose oil, coal and plastics businesses have earned them personal wealth of $25bn each. David Koch is president of the organisation's foundation.

Research by the independent Wesleyan Media Project has found that AFP is spending an astonishing $6m every two weeks on TV advertising that favours Mitt Romney's presidential candidacy. That pays for more than 7,000 TV ads to be served in the battleground states and outguns even Romney's own spending on political adverts.

With the presidential race tightening across the country in the wake of Obama's widely denounced performance in the first TV debate earlier this month, all eyes have turned to Ohio, which Romney must win if he is to have a fighting chance of taking the White House. No Republican candidate in history has won the presidency without bagging Ohio's electoral college votes that today stand at 18 out of the 270 needed for victory.

Polls vary widely in Ohio, making predictions difficult. But the latest tracking survey by Real Clear Politics has Obama two points ahead of Romney – a statistical tie.

AFP is also waging an aggressive campaign against Sherrod Brown, the Democratic senator for Ohio, under the rubric: "Has Brown worked for you?" It has a fleet of vans bearing the senator's picture with the logo: "Obama's rubber stamp for failure."

Leading figures within the Ohio Democratic party have been watching the activities of AFP and other outlying conservative groups with mounting alarm. Ted Strickland, the former Democratic governor of Ohio, told the Guardian that in his view the activities of such groups had the capacity "to move us from a democracy to an oligarchy where a handful of wealthy people use their money to try to control the political process".

Strickland said that Brown's struggle to get re-elected was a "clear example of the corrosive influence of outside money. He should be 20 points ahead were it not for a massive amount of negative advertising coming from billionaires trying to buy a senate seat".

(Recent polls have put Brown and his Republican challenger, Josh Mandel, neck and neck, though the latest survey from the Columbus Dispatch shows the incumbent pulling ahead.)

AFP's ground operation in Ohio and other states is built around an interactive online network that links its volunteers with a centralised database of information on millions of American voters. The database, called Themis after the Greek god of wisdom, was created with the help of seed money from the Kochs.

The database draws information on voters from a range of public and commercial sources to create a profile of their likely political behaviour. What you buy on Amazon; the magazines your subscribe to; your friends on Facebook; your age, neighbourhood, occupation and house value; what petitions you have signed; what church you belong to; whether or not you own a gun – all such data points and many more go towards the creation of your personal, albeit anonymous, voter file.

That, in turn, allows AFP activists to micro-target households with a level of precision that could only be dreamed about in previous generations. "This is an exponential leap forward for our side – with Themis as our crucial partner, we are able to leverage our dollars and refine our message," Phillips said.

Much media attention has been paid this election cycle to the avalanche of billionaires' money, including that of the Koch brothers, that has been spent on negative TV adverts. But in the longer term, the creation of this local lattice of activists able to identify key voters through online micro-targeting could prove to be a far more effective political weapon.

In AFP's case, its interactive database serves up what the group calls an "affinity score" for each voter. He or she is awarded a number from 0 to 1. Those registering 0 on the scale being so leftwing and pro-government in outlook that, from the organisation's perspective, they are not worth bothering with.

Those showing a 1 are equally worth bypassing because they are already so in favour of tax and spending cuts that to talk to them would be preaching to the converted. The technology is interactive, so that if a volunteer discovers that the affinity score of a voter on the doorstep is inaccurate – he or she is found to be more or less fiscally conservative than the rating suggests – it can be instantly corrected. The information is sent back at the push of a button to Themis, which is thus constantly updated and improved.

The target group for AFP are those voters who fall between 0.4 and 0.6 on the affinity score – those moderate voters deemed by its digital planners to be "persuadables". "Our goal is to get everybody into the 0.7 to 1 zone. We want to move the center towards economic freedom, to drive the debate through word-of-mouth marketing," says Matt Seaholm, the national field director of AFP.

He added that in his view it was working; that AFP were driving the debate to the right. "Cap-in-trade is now a dirty word. Stimulus is now a dirty word. Debt and spending are at the forefront. These were things that were not talked about in the past."

AFP began testing its new micro-targeting gadgetry in Wisconsin last year, where it used the technology to energise its 120,000 activists in a succession of volatile recall elections. The group's efforts were one factor behind the survival of the Tea Party-backed governor, Scott Walker, in his recall vote this June.

Phillips rejects the argument that AFP and other conservative outside groups are having a pernicious impact on the democratic process. "We are proud to have the support of the Kochs. They have every right to be involved in the political process – they have been steadfast in this area for four decades."

He added that for Obama and other Democrats to complain about corporate money entering politics was "hypocrisy at its greatest. It's laughable, and most Americans know it. Obama receives tens of millions from Hollywood and the entertainment industry – so that is good money, and other money is bad?"


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Taylor Swift: 'I want to believe in pretty lies'
October 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM
 

Her country-tinged pop narratives of love and romance have made her a superstar. She talks about her new album Red, the importance of fairytales – and her fear that the magic won't last

When Taylor Swift talks about love and relationships, she dwells on them at length and in detail. "My girlfriends and I are plagued by the idea, looking back, that [some boys] changed us," she muses. "You look back and you think: I only wore black in that relationship. Or I started speaking differently. Or I started trying to act like a hipster. Or I cut off my friends and family because he wanted me to do that. It's an unfortunate problem."

One gets the impression that Swift, who describes herself as a "girls' girl", has many such conversations: the skilful way in which her music untangles the minutiae of feelings has won her the hearts of a devoted fanbase to whom she is somewhere between a best friend and a big sister – awe-inspiring, but relatable. "She's just – perfect," gasps Mica, 18, one of around 30 fans – mostly teenage girls – who have gathered outside the Connaught Hotel in London in the hope of a meet-and-greet. "It's like she knows you," says Megan, 16, whose favourite Swift song is Back to December – one of the most accomplished numbers in a catalogue deep in detail-rich, resonant narratives. "There are so many emotions that you're feeling, you can get stifled by them if you're feeling them all at once," Swift says. "What I try to do is take one moment – one simple, simple feeling – and expand it into three-and-a-half minutes."

Her gift for this has ensured a seamless rise from country starlet to pop megastar. At 14, Swift began working the Nashville songwriting circuit; when she was 22, MTV declared her to be "single-handedly keeping the [music] industry afloat", after she easily topped Billboard's list of top money-makers in 2011. As the sales, awards and plaudits have poured in, the closest Swift's poise has come to slipping is her infamous expression of surprise when Kanye West stormed the stage at the 2009 MTV Music Video awards to protest at Swift receiving the Best Female Video award.

As a songwriter, Swift draws on familiar, even well-worn, references, but she navigates her way through cliches to bring her romances to life. The subtle shift in tense in Back to December, for instance, underlining the futility of obsessive regret; or the way in which Begin Again – the closing track on her fourth and latest album, Red – tells two stories in tandem, the shadow of the past implied in every line behind the hope of the present. "In this moment now – capture it, remember it," sang Swift on 2008's Fearless – a perfect summation of her musical MO. "I'm really intrigued by that," she reflects. "Whether it's taking a photograph, or painting a picture with your words that make a song as vivid as a photograph. I've always felt music is the only way to give an instantaneous moment the feel of slow motion. To romanticise it and glorify it and give it a soundtrack and a rhythm."

Swift's tendency to romanticise has not gone uncriticised. Detractors have accused her of everything from peddling false fairytales to young girls, to continually complaining about ex-boyfriends. She dismisses the snark curtly: "When we're falling in love or out of it, that's when we most need a song that says how we feel. Yeah, I write a lot of songs about boys. And I'm very happy to do that." But what's more interesting about Swift's penchant for romance is the conflict that's underpinned it ever since she gently, sadly called it out in the very first line of her career: "He said the way my blue eyes shine put those Georgia stars to shame that night. I said, that's a lie." Swift may buy into a patriarchal fantasy on Love Story, but she rejects it precisely for being a fantasy on White Horse. And the counterpoint to Swift's love of capturing moments is her obsession with impermanence and the passing of time.

"I think that one thing I'm really afraid of is … that magic doesn't last," she says. "That butterflies and daydreams and love, all these things that I hold so dear, are going to leave some day. I haven't had a relationship that's lasted for ever. I only know about them starting and ending. Those are my fears. I spend a lot of time balancing between faith and disbelief."

Does she think the way fairytales are sold to young girls can be damaging?

"A fairytale is an interesting concept. There's 'happily ever after' at the end, but that's not a part of our world. Everything is an ongoing storyline and you're always battling the complexities of life. But what I got from fairytales, growing up, was a beautiful daydream. I'm glad I had the craziest imagination and believed in all sorts of things that don't exist."

Swift acknowledges her propensity for sentimentalising childhood, though. "I think there's something we have as little kids that goes away sometimes. I don't care about looking youthful for ever, but I care about seeming youthful." Today, Swift eventually comes down on the side of hope – but it's the vertiginous way in which escapism can crash up against reality that is the true hallmark of her music. "I want to believe in pretty lies," she smiles wryly. "But unfortunately that can lead you to write songs like the ones on my new record."

Swift possesses a fervent faith in the power of the pop song: she reminisces about the Shania Twain songs from her childhood "that could make you want to just run around the block four times and daydream about everything"; last year, she scrawled the Bruce Springsteen lyric "We learned more from a three-minute record than we ever learned in school" on her arm for a live show. Now, she is a voracious pop fan. Anyone familiar with either her impromptu cover of Nicki Minaj's Super Bass last year or the Eminem cover with which she used to open her shows will be unsurprised to learn of her love of hip-hop ("One of the things people don't really recognise about the similarities between country and hip-hop is that they're celebrations of pride in a lifestyle"); lately, she has been researching Joni Mitchell in preparation for an as-yet-unconfirmed film role. "She's gone through so many shades of herself," Swift says, admiringly.

All of this shows on Red, which finds Swift dipping a toe into waters that, for her, are hitherto uncharted: working with heavyweight pop producers and writers such as Max Martin and experimenting with slick, electronic beats. There's even a dubstep drop on I Knew You Were Trouble: remarkably, it ends up being rather amazing. Swift's line is that, following 2008's Fearless (written with a tight-knit cohort of collaborators) and 2010's Speak Now (entirely self-penned), working with established names on Red is another means of challenging herself – rather than a deliberate attempt to crack open a country-shy international market. Nonetheless, there's a trace of smugness when she declares: "What ended up happening is, we ended up using the ideas that I brought into the studio sessions." Indeed, the pop sheen is limited to a handful of tracks sprinkled among more recognisably Swiftian fare: sweeping, soft-rock arrangements as the unassuming backdrop for narratives with twist endings that cast the whole song in a different light, like a subtly adjusted rearview mirror.

Swift maintains a non-negotiable policy of never explicitly linking her songs to any of her various famous beaux – despite providing feverishly analysed clues in her liner notes. She views the speculation with schoolmarmish equanimity, declaring approvingly: "It doesn't bother me when people try to deconstruct my songs – because at least they're looking at the lyrics, and paying attention to the way the story is told." But one of the more amusing aspects of Red is the recurring shade Swift throws at indie hipsters: it's fair to assume that it stems from firsthand experience. On her current single We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together she offers a sarcastic dismissal: "Hide away and find your peace of mind / With some indie record that's much cooler than mine."

"That was the most important line of the song," Swift says. "It was a relationship where I felt very critiqued and subpar. He'd listen to this music that nobody had heard of … but as soon as anyone else liked these bands, he'd drop them. I felt that was a strange way to be a music fan. And I couldn't understand why he would never say anything nice about the songs I wrote or the music I made."

In many ways, Swift – a "hopeless romantic", sincere to a fault – is the antithesis of cool; the writer Erika Villani has astutely identified this very uncoolness as the basis of many of her critics' arguments. It's long been so: Swift rattles off her favourite quotes from Mean Girls, arguably the defining teen movie of her generation, with relish, but the one time that her poise is even slightly shaken today is when she talks about the first car she bought with her earnings. It was a Lexus SC430 convertible – as owned by Regina George, ringleader of the film's bullying Plastics – an odd choice for a goody-goody like Swift?

"All the girls who were mean to me in middle school, like, idolised the Plastics," she explains. "I think I chose that car as a kind of rebellion against that type of girl. It was like – you guys never invited me to anything, you guys are obsessed with that car and that girl and what the Plastics wear and how they talk and you quote them all the time, but I've been working really hard every single day." She bangs both fists on the arms of her chair in frustration. "And instead of going to parties I've been writing songs and playing shows and getting these really small pay cheques that have added up and now I get to buy a car – and guess which one I'm going to buy? The one that the girl you idolise has."

It's an illuminating insight into the points of connection that make Swift so adored by her fanbase – and also the revenge of someone who believes in narrative resolutions; not necessarily happy endings, but poetic ones. In Swift, the traditions of storytelling and confessionalism are intertwined, held together by an instinct for the universal. "I think that all we have are our memories, and our hope for future memories," she smiles, her serenity restored. "I just like to hopefully give people a soundtrack to those things."


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China's economy slows down – threatening western bottom lines
October 18, 2012 at 4:30 PM
 

Nestlé and Nokia among firms to warn of weaker global sales despite Chinese GDP growing by 7.4% in third quarter

Western firms are preparing for slower growth in China after Beijing said it expected growth to stabilise at 7.5% for the next few years.

The world's second biggest economy grew 7.4% in the third quarter compared with a year ago, the seventh consecutive quarter of slower growth, prompting warnings from Nestle and Nokia that their bottom line was being affected.

The Swiss maker of KitKat chocolate bars and Nescafé coffee said sales growth in Asia, Oceania and Africa, which account for about one fifth of its total sales, fell from 11.6% to 9.4%. Nokia, the struggling Finnish mobile phone firm, also blamed slower growth in China for weaker international sales.

But China's growth figure was only just below government forecasts, while a recent surge in industrial output, retail sales and business investment have appeared to put its economy on a sounder footing and in a position to weather the worst of the euro crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted by local media as saying on Wednesday that the economic situation in the third quarter was relatively good and that the government was confident of achieving its goal.

But Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said upbeat comments from China's leaders were misleading and disguised a significant drop in activity. Beijing's statistics have always been treated with scepticism by analysts concerned that they are manipulated to suit the government's political needs.

Announcing the numbers, the National Bureau of Statistics said a higher than expected rise in September showed growth was on track to stay above target. "We have 7.7% growth in September, which laid a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target. So we are confident that we can achieve 7.5% full-year growth or above," said a NBS spokesman, Sheng Laiyun.

Williams said a 9.1% annualised figure for the third quarter failed to tally with other economic data, but nevertheless a 7.4% growth rate based on the last four quarters revealed the economy had stabilised and was stronger than expected.

"There are also some signs that growth may have started to pick-up towards the end of the third quarter. That said, we think the speed of the turnaround implied by the official figures is implausible and, barring significant further policy moves, expect only a tepid turnaround over coming quarters."

He added: "Our forecasts remain that the economy will expand around 7.6% this year and only 8% in 2013."

Alistair Thornton, senior China economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "Those fearing a hard landing will be able to sleep a little better tonight, but those positioned for a clear recovery might be disappointed. The picture is one of emerging stabilisation, not the return of unbridled optimism."

European stock markets reacted positively, as the prospects of a China-induced recession receded before paring back gains in afternoon trading.

Several analysts said Beijing was keen to moderate growth to prevent the economy from entering a boom and bust cycle.

After the financial crisis, China embarked on a massive stimulus that maintained consumer demand. But the extra cash spilled over into the property sector and triggered an upsurge in prices.

A downturn after the Greek debt debacle was avoided by cuts in interest rates, that many analysts feared would fuel to an even bigger property price bubble.

Projections that China has waved goodbye to double-digit growth is expected to cool property prices and prevent any overheating causing panic and a price crash.

Real estate investment rose 15.4% in the first nine months of 2012, slowing only marginally from an annual increase of 15.6% in January-August.

Meanwhile, land sales slowed to 4.9% in September from a year earlier, down sharply from August's 20.4%, according to Reuters' calculations based on NBS data.

"There is still a bit of uncertainty around how much housing can hold up. That's a critical sector, representing 27% of [total] investment and that's probably where the uncertainty is at the moment," Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong said, adding that signs pointed to a rebound in GDP growth during the last three months of the year.


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Mitt Romney tells business leaders: put pressure on employees - US politics live
October 18, 2012 at 4:03 PM
 

Employers should 'make clear' to their staff who to vote for, Mitt Romney tells group of conservative business leaders


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Israeli cabinet may get vote on legalising unauthorised settlements
October 18, 2012 at 3:25 PM
 

Under pressure from right wing, Binyamin Netanyahu ready to allow endorsement of some recommendations of Levy report

The Israeli cabinet may approve the legalisation of unauthorised Jewish settlement outposts in the West Bank, in a move likely to further damage peace prospects and result in censure from the international community.

The prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has indicated his intention to put sections of a government-commissioned report to a cabinet vote. However, the attorney general is reported to be opposed to the move before next year's election. A spokesman for the prime minister said: "No decisions have been taken yet."

Netanyahu is believed to be under pressure from extreme rightwing pro-settler elements within his party, Likud, in the runup to the election on 22 January. Israel Radio reported that the prime minister had instructed the cabinet secretary to draft a motion endorsing sections of the 89-page Levy report, which was published in July.

As well as calling for the legalisation of outposts, the report rejected international legal consensus that the West Bank was under Israeli military occupation. It said the fourth Geneva convention did not apply to the West Bank as it was not "foreign territory" under the sovereignty of another state.

Critics warned that adoption of the report's conclusions would have damaging repercussions for Israel, further isolating it in the international arena and potentially killing off any chance of a resumption of talks with the Palestinians on a settlement of the decades-old conflict.

Netanyahu intends to limit the cabinet vote to practical recommendations dealing with the legalisation of outposts, building permits and land purchase, according to reports.

The prime minister established a three-strong panel, headed by a pro-settlement former supreme court judge, Edmond Levy, to examine unauthorised outposts in the West Bank, which are usually established by hardline, ideologically-driven settlers. Its conclusions contradicted those of a 2005 report that declared such colonies were illegal under Israeli law and should be demolished. Under international law, all settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are illegal.

The report's publication fuelled opposition to the evacuation and demolition of two West Bank outposts, Migron and Ulpana, which were declared illegal by Israel's supreme court. Despite repeated delays by the government, both operations were eventually completed peacefully.

Netanyahu's drive to put the Levy report to a cabinet vote is viewed by some commentators as an attempt to prevent votes leaking from Likud to parties further to the right. Opinion polls taken since the election was called last week show the rightwing block is expected to emerge with a majority of parliament's 120 seats. Likud is likely to be the biggest party, although the possible formation of a new centre-left party could change predictions.

Netanyahu's position as leader of Likud is secure, but he is acutely aware of internal party pressures. Militant settlers have gained strength within Likud, scoring victories this year when several – including radical activists from hilltop outposts – were elected to the party's central committee and their leader, Moshe Feiglin, secured about 25% of votes in a challenge to Netanyahu for the party chairmanship. About 7% of Likud's 130,000 registered members live in West Bank settlements.

Netanyahu is also under pressure from smaller pro-settler parties to the right of Likud, which have called for the conclusions of the Levy report to be adopted.

Both the centrist Kadima and the centre-left Labour party criticised the move to endorse sections of the report. The defence minister, Ehud Barak, also made clear his opposition, saying: "Adopting the report will not bolster the settlement in Judea and Samaria [the biblical name for the West Bank], it will merely undermine Israel's diplomacy efforts and further isolate Israel from the world."

Tamar Feldman, of the Association of Civil Rights in Israel, said: "The situation in the West Bank is neither normal nor legal, and any attempt to authorise or normalise it threatens the rule of law in the state of Israel."


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Man dies during Greek protests as EU leaders gather for Brussels summit - live
October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM
 

Tens of thousands of people are protesting against austerity in Athens, while Euro crisis will dominate the agenda in Brussels where a two-day summit begins today




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Barack Obama's presidency: behind the scenes – in pictures
October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM
 

Official White House photographer Pete Souza has documented the president's life and work during the last four years


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Barack Obama's presidency: behind the scenes – in pictures
October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM
 

Official White House photographer Pete Souza has documented the president's life and work during the past four years


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Newsweek to axe print edition
October 18, 2012 at 12:34 PM
 

News magazine to go digital-only from 2013 after 79 years and will publish single worldwide edition

Newsweek is to axe its print edition after 80 years and move to digital-only from the new year.

Tina Brown, the editor-in-chief of Newsweek and sister digital news site the Daily Beast, told staff in an email that the last print edition will appear on 31 December.

The new digital-only publication, which will be called Newsweek Global, will be a "single worldwide edition targeted for a highly mobile, opinion-leading audience who want to learn about world events in a sophisticated context".

Newsweek Global will be supported by paid subscriptions, with content available for e-readers, tablets and the web, with some content also available on the Daily Beast.

Brown, a former editor of the New Yorker and Vanity Fair, said that the shift to digital will lead to staff cuts and a downsizing of the business internationally.

"The inexorable move to an all-digital Newsweek comes with an unfortunate reality," she said in an email to staff on Thursday. "Regrettably we anticipate staff reductions and the streamling of our editorial and business operations both here in the US and internationally."

Brown was quick to point out that the cuts and move to digital was not about saying "goodbye" to Newsweek, but responding to the reality of the costs of maintaining a print publication.

"We are transitioning Newsweek, not saying goodbye to it," she said. "We remain committed to Newsweek and to the journalism that it represents. This decision is not about the quality of the brand or the journalism, that is as powerful as ever. It is about the challenging economics of print publishing and distribution."

Newsweek, which was saved for closure by the late Sidney Harman when he bought it for $1 from the Washington Post in August 2010, was swiftly merged with Brown's Daily Beast in a 50/50 joint venture later that same year.

Brown launched the Daily Beast – which is named from her favourite novel, Evelyn Waugh's Scoop – in 2008 with the backing of Barry Diller's InterActiveCorp.

"Newsweek is produced by a gifted and tireless team of professionals who have been offering brilliant work consistently throughout a tough period of ownership transition and media disruption," she said.

The news comes a week after Variety, the 107-year-old US entertainment industry bible, was sold to the parent company of Nikki Finke's digital news site Deadline.com for $25m.

Observers believe that Variety's new owner, Penske Media Corporation, will look to cut back on the magazine's weekday or weekly print edition.

Newsweek ABCs – average total paid and verified circulation

2011: 1,524,989 (including digital editions for the first time)

2010: 1,578,691

2009: 2,316,590

2008: 2,720,034

2007: 3,124,059

2006: 3,130,600

• To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email editor@mediaguardian.co.uk or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".

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Samsung Galaxy Tab 'does not copy Apple's iPad designs'
October 18, 2012 at 12:25 PM
 

Court of appeal ruling supports July decision and forces Apple to publicise difference in two designs

Read the judgment in full

Samsung did not copy Apple's iPad designs in building its Galaxy Tab product, the court of appeal ruled on Thursday, reinforcing an earlier decision in which a judge said the Korean company's designs were not as "cool".

Apple will also be obliged to publicise the fact the two designs are different – a ruling handed down in July – in newspapers, magazines, and on its website. The three appeal court judges upheld that ruling, saying its purpose was not to "punish [or] … make it grovel [but] to dispel commercial uncertainty."

Apple had appealed against the decision in July by Judge Colin Birss QC, who had decided Samsung's tablets didn't infringe Apple's registered design for the iPad: "They do not have the same understated and extreme simplicity which is possessed by the Apple design," he said in his judgment (PDF). "They are not as cool."

The appeal court judges agreed the contrasts in appearance and design between the two companies' products was sufficient that the "informed user" – the test applied in such cases – would think them different.

The decision in the UK matches that made by a jury in the US, which decided that although some of Samsung's smartphone designs infringed Apple's iPhone designs, those of the Galaxy Tab tablets did not do so for the iPad.

Apple's UK appeal was dismissed by Lord Justice Longmore, Lord Justice Kitchin and Sir Robin Jacob.

It is the latest round in an ongoing international legal battle between the two companies, which are the two biggest competitors in the smartphone market, even though Apple is Samsung's biggest customer for phone parts – and Samsung is Apple's biggest supplier.

The three court of appeal judges also rejected Apple's challenge to an order made by Birss that it must publicise it had lost the case.

Jacob said: "The grant of such an order is not to punish the party concerned for its behaviour. Nor is it to make it grovel – simply to lose face. The test is whether there is a need to dispel commercial uncertainty."

Ruling that an order was necessary, Jacob said Apple must make the position clear "that it acknowledges that the court has decided that these Samsung products do not infringe its registered design. The acknowledgment must come from the horse's mouth. Nothing short of that will be sure to do the job completely"

Birss said in July: "The informed user's overall impression of each of the Samsung Galaxy tablets is the following: from the front they belong to the family which includes the Apple design; but the Samsung products are very thin, almost insubstantial members of that family with unusual details on the back. The overall impression produced is different."

Apple had argued that the front face and overall shape were the most important factors because the "informed user" would spend the most time looking at the front and holding it.

In Wednesday's ruling, Jacob said: "Because this case (and parallel cases in other countries) has generated much publicity, it will avoid confusion to say what this case is about and not about.

"It is not about whether Samsung copied Apple's iPad. Infringement of a registered design does not involve any question of whether there was copying: the issue is simply whether the accused design is too close to the registered design according to the tests laid down in the law."

He added: "So this case is all about, and only about, Apple's registered design and the Samsung products."

Samsung said in a statement: "We welcome the court's judgment, which reaffirmed our position that our Galaxy Tab products do not infringe Apple's registered design right. We continue to believe that Apple was not the first to design a tablet with a rectangular shape and rounded corners and that the origins of Apple's registered design features can be found in numerous examples of prior art. Should Apple continue to make excessive legal claims in other countries based on such generic designs, innovation in the industry could be harmed and consumer choice unduly limited."

Apple did not respond to a request for comment.

In the US, Samsung is appealing the outcome of a case where Apple was awarded almost a billion dollars in damages by a jury over patent and design infringements claimed against the iPhone.


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Up to 28,000 Syrians have 'disappeared' since uprising began
October 18, 2012 at 12:22 PM
 

Many civilians abducted by government forces are believed to be dead or being tortured in detention, rights groups claim

Up to 28,000 Syrians have disappeared over the past 19 months, with civilians snatched from the streets or forcibly abducted by government troops or security forces, human rights groups say.

Relatives had been unable to discover the fate of their loved ones. Many of those abducted were almost certainly dead, while others were alive and being held in Syrian prisons or secret detention centres where they were tortured, the groups claimed.

Since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011, government forces had "disappeared" peaceful protesters on an unprecedented scale, the groups said. Some campaigners have estimated the number of those who have vanished could be as high as 80,000.

A harrowing film released on Thursday by the global campaign network Avaaz shows disturbing footage of forced disappearances. In one incident, three soldiers grab two women dressed in black abayas walking down a street. They hit them and drag them away. In another, soldiers abduct a Syrian man, yanking him by the hair past a tank.

Alice Jay, Avaaz's campaign director, said: "Syrians are being plucked off the street by Syrian security forces and paramilitaries and being 'disappeared' into torture cells. Whether it is women buying groceries or farmers going for fuel, nobody is safe.

"This is a deliberate strategy to terrorise families and communities – the panic of not knowing whether your husband or child is alive breeds such fear that it silences dissent. The fate of each and every one of these people must be investigated and the perpetrators punished."

Victims were not members of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is fighting government forces on numerous fronts. Instead, they were civilians or peaceful protesters whom the authorities suspected of sympathising with the opposition. Some were abducted from their homes after midnight, others seized at military checkpoints. None were seen again.

Fadel Abdulghani, of the Syrian Network for Human Rights which has been monitoring the death toll in Syria since the protests began, said the group had collected 18,000 names of people who had disappeared. It had information but no names for 10,000 more cases, as the families had been too afraid to share them, it said.

Muhammad Khalil, a human rights lawyer from the city of Hasaka in north-eastern Syria, said: "While there is no precise figure, thousands of people have disappeared since March last year. The regime is doing this for two reasons: to directly get rid of the rebels and activists, and to intimidate the society so that it won't oppose the regime."

Avaaz said it had spoken to numerous friends and relatives of people who had been forcibly disappeared. It said it would hand over these cases to the UN human rights council, which investigates such abuses. Forced disappearances are a crime against humanity and can be tried in the international criminal court.

Many people talk about the uncertainty of not knowing their relatives' fate. Mais, whose husband Anas was forcibly disappeared in Talkalakh in February this year, said: "The children need a father in their lives. It has been difficult to adapt. I have had a very hard time explaining his absence. They always ask me: 'Where is Dad? Who took him?' And I don't know how to respond. I have to lie to them. I tell them he is at work, that he is OK."

Others describe how their loved ones went missing. Ahmad Ghassan Ibrahim, 26, from the village of Qala'at al-Hosn, near Homs, vanished on 27 February.  His mother, Fayzeh al-Masri, said: "My son drove his car from Qala'at al-Hosn to the city of Talkalakh. It was then when we lost contact with him. He called his aunt at 10.30pm from a number other than his …We later found out that the number Ahmad called us from belongs to the military security branch in Homs. We asked almost every security branch about him, to no avail.

"A month and a half ago we called his cellphone and someone answered, saying that Ahmad was killed by a regime sniper and buried in Rastan, but we were not able to confirm this information. We have been seriously concerned for six months. We are certain that he would not have left us or his wife, who is expecting twins. We only want to know his fate."

The tactic of forced disappearances is not new. Assad's father, Hafez, carried out a bloody crackdown between 1979 and 1982 – about 7,000 of those victims are still missing. During the "dirty war" in Argentina from 1977-83, it is estimated that as many as 30,000 people disappeared under the ruling military junta. Throughout the Algerian civil war from 1992-97, it is claimed as many as 17,000 people were forcibly disappeared.


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