|  |  |  | | | | | The Guardian World News | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Key Spanish media predict next Sunday's regional elections will leave Artur Mas's party without mandate to hold referendum Catalan president Artur Mas's party will fall short of the overall majority it needs at regional elections on 25 November to hold a referendum over Catalonia's independence from Spain, opinion polls published in several Spanish newspapers on Sunday have predicted. A survey by the Metroscopia polling group in El País, Spain's biggest selling non-sports paper, predicted Convergència i Unió's (CiU) haul would be unchanged at 62 seats in the 135-member Catalan parliament after next Sunday's polls. Meanwhile, Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia forecast the conservative party would garner 62-64 legislators in the assembly, compared with the 68 they would need to govern without the support of six other parties expected to win seats. Mas, who has led a minority government for two years, called for early elections and a referendum after an independence rally in the regional capital Barcelona on 11 September drew an estimated 1.5 million people, equivalent to about one in five of the north-eastern region's inhabitants. A recent survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO predicts 57% of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain. However, the central government has said a referendum in the rich but indebted region would be unconstitutional, and the constitutional court in Madrid blocked a move to hold a similar vote in the northern Basque country as recently as 2008. Another potential stumbling block for a separation has been raised by doubts over whether an independent Catalonia could remain in the European Union. When asked on Saturday at the Iberoamerican summit held in Cádiz, European commission president José Manuel Barroso replied that the bloc would stand by rules drawn up in 2004, ie states that secede would have to apply for membership. "The legal situation has not changed since 2004. The Lisbon treaty has not introduced any modifications in that respect," he said. Catalonia has a distinct language and culture and, like all of Spain's 17 regions, enjoys considerable autonomy, but the CiU is demanding the right to collect its own taxes and send a share to Madrid, an arrangement similar to the Basque country. Less at the forefront of the campaign has been the deep spending cuts which have sparked massive protests across crisis-hit Spain. Mas's government had to ask Madrid for a €5bn bailout in August for Catalonia, which is Spain's wealthiest region and accounts for 18.5% of Spain's total economic output, but also for 29% of all outstanding debt held by the country's regions.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Israeli prime minister says Israel is prepared for 'significant' widening of Gaza operation as bombardment enters fifth day
The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has said it is prepared for a "significant" widening of its Gaza offensive as the bombardment entered its fifth day. The Palestinian death toll since the conflict began on Wednesday topped 50 after a night of sustained bombing that killed five civilians. Two children died and 12 people were injured when two houses were hit in northern Gaza. Shells fired from Israeli gunboats off the coast pummelled Gaza for an hour in the middle of the night, causing massive explosions, and six people were injured when two Israeli war planes hit a media building in Gaza City. Netanyahu told the Israeli cabinet in remarks broadcast on Sunday: "We are exacting a heavy price from Hamas and the terrorist organisations and the Israel Defence Forces are prepared for a significant expansion of the operation." There appeared to be a lull in rocket fire out of Gaza overnight, but air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and Ashdod on Sunday morning. Israel's Channel 2 reported that rocket fire aimed at Tel Aviv was intercepted by an Iron Dome defence battery. Three Israeli civilians have been killed and more than 50 wounded since Wednesday. Gaza is braced for a ground invasion by Israeli forces following intensified bombing that included the flattening of the headquarters of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh. A small mountain of rubble, twisted metal and broken glass was all that remained of Haniyeh's headquarters. Palestinian flags fluttered on poles poking out from the debris. Israel has opened the Kerem Shalom crossing to allow medical and humanitarian supplies into Gaza. As the Israeli military began the emergency call-up of up to 75,000 reservists, leaders from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar met in Cairo to discuss ways of ending the escalating violence. The US urged diplomacy and "de-escalation" but said Israel had the right to self-defence. It wanted the "same thing as the Israelis want" in ending rocket attacks, the White House said in a statement. Israel's hardline foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, warned of a "crushing response" still to come to prevent missile fire by Hamas and other militant groups but denied Israel had launched an all-out war. "The only way we can achieve peace and security is to create real deterrence via a crushing response that will make sure they don't try to test us again," he said. "This isn't an all-out war but an operation with defined goals." If a ground invasion were authorised Israel would have to "see it through," he said. "This wasn't done during Operation Cast Lead [the 22-day war four years ago], which is why we failed to achieve our goal." On a visit to Gaza on Saturday, the Tunisian foreign minister, Rafik Abdesslem, denounced the Israeli attacks as unacceptable and against international law. "Israel should understand that many things have changed and that lots of water has run in the Arab river," he said. "It should realise it no longer has a free hand. It does not have total immunity and is not above international law … What Israel is doing is not legitimate and is not acceptable at all." Regional leaders, along with Hamas's Khaled Mashaal and Ramadan Shallah, the Islamic Jihad secretary general, are meeting in Cairo to discuss ways of containing the crisis. Others at the gathering included the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Qatari emir. "There are some indications that there is a possibility of a ceasefire soon, but we do not yet have firm guarantees," Morsi said. Arab League diplomats briefed on Saturday evening that its statement would be calling for an immediate ceasefire. However, Hamas officials in Gaza said any truce would be dependent on Israel agreeing to lift its long-term blockade of the territory and agree to end its policy of assassinations of Hamas leaders, conditions that Israel is unlikely to accept. Egypt brokered an informal truce in October, which has since collapsed. An Arab diplomatic source, who declined to be named, told Reuters the Arab League draft to be discussed by the ministers expresses the Cairo-based league's support for Egypt's efforts to achieve a "long-term truce" between Israel and Palestinian factions. The draft also calls for the UN security council to take the necessary steps to halt the violence and "protect the Palestinian people".
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Divers retrieve remains of one of two missing workers from Gulf of Mexico platform, while four burnt men fight for lives Divers have found the body of one of two oil workers who were missing after four others were badly burnt by an explosion on a platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The US coast guard said the remains were found by divers hired by Houston-based Black Elk Energy, the company that had been inspecting the platform. A spokesman said the coast guard would be turning over the remains to local authorities. John Hoffman, the president and CEO of Black Elk Energy, wrote in an email late on Saturday that the body was apparently that of one of two crew members missing since an explosion and fire on Friday morning. Divers were still searching for the second missing worker. Hoffman said the body was found close to the leg of the platform, near where the explosion occurred, in about nine metres (30ft) of water. He said the missing men were employees of oilfield contractor Grand Isle Shipyard. The news came shortly after the coast guard suspended a 32-hour-long search for the two missing workers that covered 1,400 square miles (3,626 sq km) near the oil platform, located about 20 miles (40km) south-east of Grand Isle, Louisiana. The blaze erupted on Friday morning while workers were using a torch to cut an oil line on the platform, authorities said, but the Grand Isle Shipyard has said "initial reports that a welding torch was being used at the time of the incident or that an incorrect line was cut are completely inaccurate". Officials at Baton Rouge general medical centre said two of the burnt men remained in a critical condition, while two were in a serious condition. A sheen of oil was visible on the water but officials said no oil was leaking from the charred platform, a relief for Gulf Coast residents two years after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill illustrated the risk that offshore drilling poses to the region's ecosystem and economy. The Black Elk Energy facility is a production platform in shallow water, 17 metres (56ft), rather than an exploratory drilling rig like the Deepwater Horizon looking for new oil on the seafloor almost a mile down. BP's blown-out well spewed millions of gallons of oil into the sea, whereas the coast guard said the cut line on the Black Elk rig had only contained about 28 gallons of oil. Black Elk Energy is an independent oil and gas company. The company's website says it holds interests in properties in Texas and Louisiana waters, including 854 wells on 155 platforms.
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | White House calls for diplomacy after Israeli air strikes destroy Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's headquarters Gaza is braced for a ground invasion by Israeli forces following intensified bombing that included the flattening of the headquarters of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. As the Israeli military began the emergency call-up of up to 75,000 reservists, leaders from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar met in Cairo to discuss ways of ending the escalating violence. Since Wednesday Israel has launched more than 950 air strikes on the coastal Palestinian territory, targeting weaponry and flattening militant homes and headquarters. The raids continued past midnight on Sunday. Witnesses said one targeted a building in Gaza City housing the offices of local Arab media, wounding three journalists from al-Quds television, a Lebanon-based station that Israel sees as pro-Hamas. The building is also used by foreign news outlets including Germany's ARD, Kuwait TV, the Italian RAI and others. Two other pre-dawn attacks on houses in the Jabiliya refugee camp killed one child and wounded 12 other people, medical officials said. In all 48 Palestinians, including 15 civilians, have been killed and more than 400 civilians wounded, according to medical officials. Three Israeli civilians have been killed and more than 50 wounded. The US urged diplomacy and "de-escalation" but said Israel had the right to self-defence. It wanted the "same thing as the Israelis want" in ending rocket attacks, the White House said in a statement. In Tel Aviv air raid sirens sounded for the third day running, with residents reporting the sound of an explosion. Hamas said it had fired a Fajr-5 rocket from its arsenal of long-range missiles. Three Israelis have been killed since the conflict began on Wednesday. A small mountain of rubble, twisted metal and broken glass was all that remained of Haniyeh's headquarters. Several Palestinian flags fluttered on poles poking out from the debris. Strikes from Israeli aircraft and warships continued to pummel the Gaza Strip throughout Saturday. Israel's hardline foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, warned of a "crushing response" still to come to prevent missile fire by Hamas and other militant groups but denied that Israel had launched an all-out war. "The only way we can achieve peace and security is to create real deterrence via a crushing response that will make sure they don't try to test us again," he said. "This isn't an all-out war but an operation with defined goals." If a ground invasion were authorised Israel would have to "see it through," he said. "This wasn't done during Operation Cast Lead [the 22-day war four years ago], which is why we failed to achieve our goal." On a visit to Gaza the Tunisian foreign minister, Rafik Abdesslem, denounced the Israeli attacks as unacceptable and against international law. "Israel should understand that many things have changed and that lots of water has run in the Arab river," he said. "It should realise it no longer has a free hand. It does not have total immunity and is not above international law … What Israel is doing is not legitimate and is not acceptable at all." He was expected to later join a meeting in Cairo of regional leaders, along with Hamas's Khaled Mashaal and Ramadan Shallah, the Islamic Jihad secretary general, to discuss ways of trying to contain the crisis. Others at the gathering included Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Qatari emir. The meeting came as Arab League foreign ministers also met to draw up a draft statement calling for a negotiated ceasefire. The league was further expected to authorise its general secretary, Nabil Elaraby, to lead a delegation into Gaza following visits in recent days. Erdogan has been a highly outspoken critic of Israel, while Qatar's emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited Gaza in October, breaking the isolation of the Hamas government. Arab League diplomats briefed on Saturday evening that its statement would be calling for an immediate ceasefire. However Hamas officials in Gaza said that any truce would be dependent on Israel agreeing to lift its long-term blockade of the territory and agree to end its policy of assassinations of Hamas leaders, conditions that Israel is unlikely to accept. The disclosure of the terms of the talks began to emerge as Hamas fired a Fajr-5 missile at the outskirts of Tel Aviv, which is likely to reinforce Israel's willingness to push ahead with the campaign after a day of continuing rocket fire out of Gaza and Israeli air strikes. According to military sources, Egyptian intelligence officials met Hamas officials in Gaza for the second day running. The talks coincided with recent high-profile delegations that have entered Gaza to show solidarity with Palestinians living there. Tunisian foreign minister Rafik Abdesslem visited Gaza a day after Egyptian prime minister Hisham Kandil crossed the border into the Palestinian enclave, condemning Israeli actions and pledging to work for a truce. Meshaal also held talks on Saturday with Egyptian security officials on prospects for a truce. Egypt brokered an informal truce in October, which has since collapsed. It now says it is seeking a new deal. An Arab diplomatic source, who declined to be named, told Reuters the Arab League draft to be discussed by the ministers expressed the Cairo-based league's support for Egypt's efforts to achieve a "long-term truce" between Israel and Palestinian factions. The draft also calls for the UN security council to take the necessary steps to halt the violence and "protect the Palestinian people". Rumours emerged late on Saturday that possible truce talks could take place in Cairo as early as Sunday.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Environmental groups to hold rally at White House on Sunday after president promised to make climate change a priority Environmental groups will step up the pressure on Barack Obama to act on climate change in his second term, with a rally Sunday at the White House against the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline. Activists are pressing Obama to deliver early on his promise – renewed at his first White House press conference – to make climate change a personal priority of his second term, by blocking the Keystone XL. "We wanted to make a first statement right out of the gate after the election that the environmental community isn't going away, and that we want to hold the president accountable," said Daniel Kessler, a spokesman for 350.org. "It's important for Obama to know that denial of a permit for the Keystone XL pipeline is priority number one." But supporters of the pipeline are matching their efforts, and have renewed their call for Obama to approve the scheme. "As the president looks for opportunities to provide a quick boost to the economy and strengthen our energy security, we urged him to approve the full Keystone pipelines as soon as possible," the American Petroleum Institute told a reporters' conference call on Thursday. Opponents of the Keystone XL pipeline say it will vastly expand production from the Alberta tar sands – locking the US and Canada into a high-carbon future and swamping efforts to reduce the emissions that cause climate change. Protesters, including author Bill McKibben, plan to encircle the White House with a giant inflatable pipeline. The climate champion, Al Gore, also spoke out against the pipeline this week. "The tar sands are just the dirtiest source of liquid fuel you can imagine," he told the Guardian. "At a time when we are desperately trying to bend the emissions curve downwards it is quite literally insane to open up a whole new source that is much more carbon intensive and that makes the problem worse." Environmental groups are hoping to capitalise on renewed concern about climate change after superstorm Sandy, and Obama's promise to make the issue a personal mission in his second term. Obama told a White House press conference he wanted to re-educate the American public about climate change although he backed away from endorsing any specific measures. But with climate change once again a hot topic – and various think tanks hosting seminars on a carbon tax – environmental groups are thinking this could be an opportune time. "I think the national dialogue has changed," said Jane Kleeb, the founder of Bold Nebraska, which led protests against the proposed pipeline route across that state. "Sandy was a big shift, and I think the president truly does believe that this is one big issue his Administration has to tackle. They shied away from it, unfortunately, before the election but now they are tuned in." The Keystone XL emerged as an issue during the election campaign, with Mitt Romney promising to approve the pipeline on his first day in the White House, if he won election. The Republican contender argued it would create jobs. However, the pipeline company said it still expects the project to go ahead, with Obama rendering his final approval by March next year. "We continue to believe that the Keystone XL pipeline will be approved," Shawn Howard, a spokesman for the TransCanada Corporation, said in an email. "The facts that support the approval of Keystone XL remain the same – and the need for this pipeline grows even stronger the longer its approval is delayed." Obama is due to render a final decision on the project in the first half of next year. But there are a number of key moments ahead including additional environmental reviews by the State Department, and a research study by the National Academy of Science on the potential dangers of pumping tar sands bitumen across the American heartland. The pipeline company also needs to win additional approvals for its route, which was adjusted to avoid crossing over the ecologically sensitive Ogallala Aquifer in Nebraska.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Two people are feared to have died following a blaze at an oil platform about 25 miles southeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana The US Coast Guard was searching Saturday for two workers missing after a fire broke out on an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico, sending an ominous black plume of smoke into the air reminiscent of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion. The blaze, which started Friday while workers were using a torch to cut an oil line, severely burned at least four workers. Their burns were not as extensive as initially reported, said Leslie Hoffman, a spokeswoman for Black Elk Energy, which owned the platform. Their conditions Saturday were stable but critical, she said. Meanwhile, officials said no oil was leaking from the charred platform, a relief for Gulf Coast residents still weary two years after the BP oil spill illustrated the risk offshore drilling poses to the region's ecosystem and economy. Coast Guard officials said in a news release Saturday that helicopters were searching for the missing workers from the air, while a cutter searched the sea. The images Friday were eerily similar to the Deepwater Horizon blaze that killed 11 workers and led to an oil spill that took months to bring under control. The fire came a day after BP PLC agreed to plead guilty to a raft of charges in the 2010 spill and pay a record $4.5bn in penalties. There were a few important differences between this latest blaze and the blaze that touched off the worst offshore spill in US history: Friday's fire at an oil platform about 25 miles southeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana, was put out within hours, while the Deepwater Horizon burned for more than a day, collapsed and sank. The site of Friday's blaze is a production platform in shallow water, rather than an exploratory drilling rig like the Deepwater Horizon Looking for new oil on the seafloor almost a mile deep. The depth of the 2010 well blow-out proved to be a major challenge in bringing the disaster under control. The Black Elk platform is in 56 feet of water a depth much easier for engineers to manage if a spill had happened. A sheen of oil about a half-mile long and 200 yards wide was reported on the Gulf surface, but officials believe it came from residual oil on the platform. "It's not going to be an uncontrolled discharge from everything we're getting right now," Coast Guard captain Ed Cubanski said. Hoffman, the Black Elk Energy spokeswoman, said Saturday that there were still no signs of any leak or spill at the platform site. After Friday's blaze, 11 people were taken by helicopter to area hospitals or for treatment on shore by emergency medical workers. The Coast Guard said 24 people were aboard the platform at the time of the fire. Cubanski said the platform appeared to be structurally sound. He said only about 28 gallons of oil were in the broken line on the platform. David Smith, a spokesman for the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement in Washington, said an environmental enforcement team was dispatched from a Gulf Coast base by helicopter soon after the Coast Guard was notified of the emergency. Smith said the team would scan for any evidence of oil spilling and investigate the cause of the explosion. Black Elk is an independent oil and gas company. The company's website says it holds interests in properties in Texas and Louisiana waters, including 854 wells on 155 platforms. John Hoffman, Black Elk's president and CEO, said in an email early Saturday morning that he was leaving Houston for Louisiana to assist in the investigation and help the families of the missing and injured workers. "My entire focus is the families and workers. Nothing else matters at this point," he wrote.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Tension grows as Tehran accuses US officials of 'wanting to prevent us interacting and co-operating with the United Nations' The United States has denied visas to Iranian officials hoping to attend a UN meeting in New York, Iran's state news agency reported on Saturday. The Iranian judiciary's human rights headquarters said in a statement that the US denied visas to members of an Iranian delegation that planned to travel to a meeting of the United Nations' third committee, which focuses on social issues and human rights, state news agency Irna said. "The US government, by not issuing visas to the members of the delegation, wants to ruin the possibility of the presence of the delegation, and prevent its members from conducting their mission of interacting and co-operating with the United Nations," said the statement, according to Irna. The judiciary body urged UN officials to warn the United States against such decisions and remind it of its obligations as UN host country, Irna reported. It did not say how many Iranian officials had applied for visas from the United States or when they wanted to travel. The Swiss embassy, which handles US consular services in Iran, did not respond immediately to a request from comment. The US State Department was not immediately available for comment. As UN host country, the United States has a policy of issuing visas for members of delegations, in line with a 1947 pact with the United Nations, regardless of disputes with individual countries. However, it does sometimes refuse entry to government officials and professionals from Iran with which it has had no diplomatic ties since 1979 and which it accuses of seeking nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies. In September, Iran's Fars news agency reported that the US had denied visas to about 20 government officials hoping to attend the UN general assembly, including two ministers, although President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did attend and addressed the assembly. At the time, a US official speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Visas for foreign officials to attend UN meetings in the UN headquarters district are adjudicated in accordance with all applicable laws and procedures including both US law and the UN Headquarters Agreement. However, visa records are confidential." In 2009, as Iranian authorities were crushing protests against the re-election of Ahmadinejad, Iran said a delegation headed by its first vice president had been refused visas to attend a UN conference on the global financial crisis.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | White House calls for diplomacy after Israeli air strikes destroy Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's headquarters Gaza was on Saturday braced for a ground invasion by Israeli forces following intensified bombing overnight that included the flattening of the headquarters of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. As the Israeli military began the emergency call-up of up to 75,000 reservists, leaders from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar met in Cairo to discuss ways of ending the escalating violence. Israel said that it had struck 200 targets overnight in the Gaza Strip, bringing the death toll to 39, with hundreds more wounded. The US urged diplomacy and "de-escalation", but said Israel had the right to self-defence. It wanted the "same thing as the Israelis want" in ending rocket attacks, the White House said in a statement. In Tel Aviv, air raid sirens sounded for the third day running, with residents reporting the sound of an explosion. Hamas said it had fired a Fajr-5 rocket from its arsenal of long-range missiles. Three Israelis have been killed since the conflict began on Wednesday. A small mountain of rubble, twisted metal and broken glass was all that remained of Haniyeh's headquarters. Several Palestinian flags fluttered on poles poking out from the debris. Bombing from Israeli aircraft and warships continued to pummel the Gaza Strip throughout Saturday. Israel's hardline foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, warned of a "crushing response" still to come to prevent missile fire by Hamas and other militant groups, but denied that Israel had launched an all-out war. "The only way we can achieve peace and security is to create real deterrence via a crushing response that will make sure they don't try to test us again," he said. "This isn't an all-out war, but an operation with defined goals." If a ground invasion was authorised, Israel would have to "see it through," he said. "This wasn't done during Operation Cast Lead [the 22-day war four years ago], which is why we failed to achieve our goal." On a visit to Gaza, the Tunisian foreign minister, Rafik Abdesslem, denounced the Israeli attacks as unacceptable and against international law. "Israel should understand that many things have changed and that lots of water has run in the Arab river," he said. "It should realise it no longer has a free hand. It does not have total immunity and is not above international law... What Israel is doing is not legitimate and is not acceptable at all." He was expected to later join a meeting in Cairo of regional leaders, along with Hamas's Khaled Mashaal and Ramdan Shallah, the Islamic Jihad secretary-general, to discuss ways of trying to contain the crisis. Others at the gathering included Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Qatari emir. The meeting came as Arab League foreign ministers also met to draw up a draft statement calling for a negotiated ceasefire. The league was also expected to authorise its general secretary, Nabil El-Araby, to lead a delegation into Gaza following visits in recent days. Erdogan has been a highly outspoken critic of Israel, while Qatar's emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited Gaza in October, breaking the isolation of the Hamas government. Arab League diplomats briefed on Saturday evening that its statement would be calling for an immediate ceasefire. However, Hamas officials in Gaza said that any truce would be dependent on Israel agreeing to lift its long-term blockade of the territory and agree to end its policy of assassinations of Hamas leaders, conditions that Israel is unlikely to accept. The disclosure of the terms of the talks began to emerge as Hamas fired a Fajr-5 missile at the outskirts of Tel Aviv, which is likely to reinforce Israel's willingness to push ahead with the campaign after a day of continuing rocket fire out of Gaza and Israeli air strikes. According to military sources, Egyptian intelligence officials met Hamas officials in Gaza for the second day running. The talks coincided with recent high-profile delegations that have entered Gaza to show solidarity with Palestinians living there. Tunisian foreign minister Rafik Abdesslem visited Gaza a day after Egyptian prime minister Hisham Kandil crossed the border into the Palestinian enclave, condemning Israeli actions and pledging to work for a truce. Meshaal also held talks on Saturday with Egyptian security officials on prospects for a truce. Egypt brokered an informal truce in October, which has since collapsed. It now says it is seeking a new deal. An Arab diplomatic source, who declined to be named, told Reuters the Arab League draft to be discussed by the ministers expressed the Cairo-based league's support for Egypt's efforts to achieve a "long-term truce" between Israel and Palestinian factions. The draft also calls for the UN security council to take the necessary steps to halt the violence and "protect the Palestinian people".
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | The poker player and baseball nerd turned political forecaster won fame after predicting the result of the US election with uncanny accuracy. And as his star rises so too does that of a whole new generation of 'quants' leading the digital revolution Nate Silver is a new kind of political superstar. One who actually knows what he's talking about. In America, punditry has traditionally been about having the right kind of hair or teeth or foaming rightwing views. Silver has none of these. He just has numbers. Lots of them. And, on the night of the US presidential election, they were proved to be right in quite spectacular fashion. For weeks and months, the election had been "too close to call". Pundit after pundit declared that the election could "go either way". That it was "neck and neck". Only it wasn't. In the end, it turned out not to be neck and neck at all. Or precisely what Nate Silver had been saying for months. On election day, he predicted Obama had a 90.9% chance of winning a majority in the electoral votes and by crunching polling data he successfully predicted the correct result in 50 out of 50 states. "You know who won the election tonight?" asked the MSNBC TV news anchor, Rachel Maddow. "Nate Silver." Twitter went into meltdown. The blogosphere went Nate Silvertastic. Sales of his first book, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction leapt 800% overnight and went to number two in the bestseller charts. And whole portions of the media decided that this wasn't just a personal triumph for Nate Silver – it was the triumph of the nerds. One man and his mathematical model had bested an entire political class of journalists, spin doctors, hacks and commentators. Silver doesn't look much like America's latest and hottest new television celebrity. Or "the new boyfriend of the chattering classes", as the Washington Post called him. The 34-year-old Silver is a pretty convincing Clark Kent pre the Superman makeover. He's so unassuming, he shuffles, head bowed, into the room, looking almost embarrassed about the idea of being interviewed. Poor Nate. It's a lot to live up to. He pushes his glasses back on to his nose. "It's been a little crazy," he says. But then, he doesn't really see it being about him. "I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. And I'd be the first to say you want diversity of opinion. You don't want to treat any one person as oracular." It might be a bit late for that, however. The day after the election, he went on The Daily Show and Jon Stewart saluted him as "Nate Silver! The lord and god of the algorithm." In other circumstances, if Silver had been a different sort of personality, a more egotistical one, this all could be a bit much. But this is also a story about the underdog coming out on top. In the weeks before the election, Silver's critics (largely on the right, angry that he was predicting an Obama win) attacked not just his methodology, but also him. Dean Chambers of UnSkewedPolls.com railed against his "voodoo statistics", claimed he'd been "smoking the wacky weed" and finally pronounced him a "thin and effeminate" man "of small stature" with a "soft-sounding voice". There was more than a touch of homophobia to the criticism (Silver is gay), not to mention an aversion to scientific rationalism that has come to characterise certain segments of the conservative right. (Gawker compared the attack to "something like a jock slapping a math book out of a kid's hands and saying, 'NICE NUMBERS, FAG.'") But in some ways, it seems like the adulation has been harder to handle. "It does make me nervous. Because I guarantee that we are going to start getting some things wrong," he says. The "we" is his blog, FiveThirtyEight (named after the 538 electoral college votes), which he set up in 2007 to provide a more data-driven analysis of politics and which, in 2010, he moved to the website of the great cathedral of American news and politics, the New York Times. It's a fact that reinforces his Clark Kent credentials. We're sitting in the Times's super-slick Manhattan skyscraper, with its multimillion-dollar view of the Midtown skyline. And yet, in the days before the election, it was Silver's scrappy little blog that was driving 20% of its traffic. (It's perhaps not a coincidence that DC Comics announced last month that after 70-odd years, Superman would be leaving the Daily Planet to set up a blog.) Because if Silver is not the Superman of Big Data, he's definitely Supergeek, its pin-up boy. And he's singlehandedly shown that most political punditry is about as effective a method of truth-seeking as the ducking stool. It's always been about the numbers with Silver. "I've just always been a bit of a dork," he says. Growing up in East Lansing in Michigan, his local baseball team, the Detroit Tigers, won the World Series when he was six "and there were all sorts of stats and that was it really". After graduating from the University of Chicago with a BA in economics, he spent four years working as a consultant for KPMG. Then he discovered online poker. "It was in the days when there were a lot of people coming on the sites who really had no clue," says Silver. He, on the other hand, was good enough to take their money, jack in his job and "for a while lived the poker dream". Poker is something of a lodestone in Silver's life. It taught him about chance and the role it plays in life. "And it gave me better training than anything else I can think of about how to weigh new information, what might be important information and what might be less so. Our basic instincts tend to be not very good. We tend to overweigh new information." Finally, he says, there was "this tenuous relationship between skill and luck and the ambiguity between the two. When I made this money, was I lucky or was I good? You can never know." He estimates he made about $400,000 (£252,000) from online gambling, enough to pursue his other love: baseball. The sport was changing and Silver became one of a few people who saw the potential for it to be more factual and data-driven. He set up a website, Pecota, which modelled a system for forecasting the career prospects of Major League Baseball players and which he later sold to Baseball Prospectus. It was a battle between old-school scouts and a new wave of statistically minded newcomers, a struggle that came to be told in Michael Lewis's bestselling book, Moneyball, and later a film starring Brad Pitt. By 2007, Silver was casting around for something new. "I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics." He was anonymous initially, calling himself Poblano, until a few months later he outed himself. Silver thought that by taking the available data and applying Bayesian theory to it, he might have "some small edge". There is a lot of data in American politics and Bayesian theory, a way of calculating conditional probabilities, has been around since an English clergyman, Thomas Bayes, first formulated it sometime at the start of the 18th century. It was not, as his critics have been quick to point out, exactly rocket science. But then Silver is the first to agree. He's not even the only one doing it. Others had equally good results. At its heart, it's absolutely bog-standard statistics. He aggregates polling data. The twist or the "secret" to his model is what weight he gives to that data. How it's performed historically, what biases it might have, what other information can be brought to bear upon it. Yet, in the rarefied world of US politics, it's proved spectacularly more accurate than what was around before. Or even in British politics for that matter. We don't have the same abundance of polling data that exists in America, so its use here might be less successful, but it didn't stop the Daily Telegraph's Janet Daley weighing in on the US election. On polling day, she declared a victory for Romney, on the grounds that Obama's campaign didn't "feel" like a winner to her. Others had a "hunch" that Romney would edge it. With competition like this, says Silver, it really wasn't so difficult to do something just slightly less medieval. "Numbers aren't perfect, but for me, it's numbers with all their imperfections versus bullshit. You had people saying, 'You can't quantify people's feelings through numbers!' But what's the alternative? Me sitting at my Georgetown cocktail party saying that I know how people in Toledo, Ohio, are going to vote better than the actual people of Toledo, Ohio, who answered a survey? It's incredibly presumptuous. And truth is an absolute defence. So if they got it right it would be one thing, but they didn't. They're consistently quite wrong." Silver doesn't work the Georgetown party scene. He doesn't meet the lobbyists, spin doctors, campaign managers and press officers. He doesn't, in short, play the system, because political reporting, both in the US and the UK, is a system, a system that can at times resemble a cartel. In Britain, the you-scratch-my-back-and-I'll-scratch-yours atmosphere of the lobby came under scrutiny during the expenses scandal, a scandal it took a journalist outside politics to bust apart. In the US, Silver describes it as "transactional". "Once in a while, you'll get the occasional scoop, if you're well-behaved and play the game. But it's all just a game with a lot of vested interests at work. I try not to talk to the campaigns because it's mostly noise." What's interesting is that the campaigns, most especially Obama's, understand the importance of data. They hired a "chief scientist" and according to the campaign manager, Jim Messina, set out to "measure everything". Numbers told them who to target and how to target them. In this context, Silver's skills seem not just relevant but vital. The liberal media don't care, perhaps, when it's their side winning; they may next time around. Because this is military-grade spin, targeted like a drone strike at the level of the individual. The political class has responded by waving the equivalent of a crucifix at it. Mark Henderson, the British author of The Geek Manifesto, observed on his blog that Silver's recent prominence just goes to highlight the anti-scientific bias at the heart of so much of our media, how, for example, "in the past two years, Melanie Phillips has been on Question Time more than all scientists put together". Silver's background and methodology mark him out from the rest of what in the US is sometimes called the "gang of 500", the familiar faces with familiar views who are wheeled out on Question Time-like political programmes. It's a small, self-referencing cohort that the echo-chamber of Twitter has only amplified and distorted, leading to what Silver believes is the worst kind of "group think". He gives as an example the presidential debates "where the conventional wisdom solidifies very quickly. I was 15 minutes late for the first one, and by the time I got home, it had already been decided". It turns out that what he calls his "dorkiness" is actually the secret to his powers. "I've always felt like something of an outsider. I've always had friends, but I've always come from an outside point of view. I think that's important. If you grow up gay, or in a household that's agnostic, when most people are religious, then from the get-go, you are saying that there are things that the majority of society believes that I don't believe." What made you more of a misfit, I ask, being gay or a geek? "Probably the numbers stuff since I had that from when I was six." It's one of quite a lot of things he's started to worry about: that his prominence will mean he won't just forecast future elections, but also influence them and that he'll lose his outsider's edge. "You get these different opportunities, but I don't want to be corrupted and drawn into these scenes." He's looking for the next low-hanging fruit, an area with lots of data and "not much competition". Economic news, he thinks, is ripe for the approach. And local government, though "not in a predictive way". He did a brilliant analysis a few years back of New York neighbourhoods, which allowed you to weight your biases (green space, say, and good schools) and then used reams of data from mayor Michael Bloomberg's office to provide a personal analysis of where in the city you should live. Then there's the $700,000 book deal he struck after his success in predicting the 2008 election, on the grounds that, as he says candidly in his introduction, his publishers wanted "a triumph of the nerds" type book. At the time, nobody knew quite how triumphant he would turn out to be. But then, nor did Silver have much of an idea of where the book would lead. "I thought it was going to be more like, 'Here's how taxi drivers work out how to pick up customers.' And, 'Here's how online dating sites work.' There is some of that, but there's a more philosophical element that emerged from it. "It's the intersection between objective and subjective reality. We are confronted with all this data, but oftentimes we screw it up. Having more information doesn't necessarily make us any better at predicting what will happen in the world." In the book, Silver evaluates things that we've actually become quite good at predicting (the weather, surprisingly), things we are bad at predicting (share prices), things we are bad at predicting but think we are good at predicting (the economy) and things that could possibly be predicted but we have a track record of not predicting (terrorist attacks). Before meeting Silver, I had, earlier in the day, met Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, the book published in 2007 that claimed that the world we had created was too complex for us to understand and that it was only a matter of time before the global financial system collapsed. What do you think of Nate Silver? I asked him. "He's the real deal," said Taleb. "What he's doing is absolutely proper stuff." Silver is delighted when I tell him this. I'm not sure if it's the comparison to The Black Swan or the unsteady feeling I get standing next to the New York Times's vertiginous floor-to-ceiling windows, but later that night, I reread Silver's chapter on terrorism and feel a bit spooked. He plots terrorist events before 11 September according to something known as a double-logarithmic scale and finds that an atrocity of that type wasn't actually unimaginable; statistically, it was likely to happen within our lifetime. It wasn't a black swan. What's more, there's a mathematical case to be made for an upcoming attack that "might kill tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands". I hope this isn't Silver's black swan moment and it's just me doing what he says we shouldn't do: cherry-picking information according to our biases. Because if Silver teaches us anything, it's that human judgment is fallible. That Wall Street traders are chancers, pundits are clueless and economic forecasts imaginative works of fiction. On the other hand, it turns out that elections are easy to predict. You just have to be lucky or good. Or, as in Nate Silver's case, both. The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver is published by Allen Lane
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Minute-by-minute: Will Norwich's unbeaten run come to an end against Manchester United? Join Scott Murray to find out
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Influential figures dissociate themselves from Romney's remark that Obama had won voters over by giving them 'a lot of stuff' A succession of top Republicans have begun distancing themselves from Mitt Romney after the former presidential hopeful made a series of blunt comments about minority groups as he sought to explain why he lost the race for the White House. Romney, who less than two weeks ago was still a real contender to be America's next president, appears to have dramatically damaged his chances of becoming an influential party figure in the future. Some moderate conservatives have started calling for Republicans to work harder to attract Hispanic voters, other minorities and women and to appear less extreme in some of its ideological stances such as tax cuts for the wealthy. Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal even went so far as to say the party had to stop being "the stupid party". But on a conference call with his defeated donors last week Romney sparked outrage among many Republican figures after he appeared to say Obama had won support by "giving a lot of stuff" to some voters such as Hispanics, black Americans and young people in the form of healthcare, free contraceptives and forgiveness of college loan interests. "In each case, they were very generous in what they gave to those groups," Romney said. Those comments caused Jindal to criticise the former governor of Massachusetts in a CNN interview. "I absolutely reject that notion, that description. If you want voters to like you, the first thing you need to do is like them yourself," Jindal said. He was far from alone. New Hampshire senator Kelly Ayotte, who was once talked about as a potential Romney running mate, told MSNBC: "I don't agree with the comments. I think the campaign is over, and what the voters are looking for us to do is to accept their votes and then go forward, and we've got some big challenges that need to be resolved." New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who caused ructions within the Romney campaign by praising President Barack Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy, also spoke to the left-leaning cable channel and pulled no punches. "You can't expect to be a leader of all the people and [be so] divisive. Someone asked me: 'Why did Mitt Romney lose?' And I said: 'Because he got less votes than Barack Obama. That's why'," Christie said. As the Republican party digests its defeat by Obama, a profound debate is taking place about its future direction given the breakdown of the results. Romney won the white vote with 59%, according to exit polls, but minorities coalesced around the president with 93% of blacks and 71% of Hispanics backing Obama. The changing demographics of the US mean those minority voters are only likely to get more powerful in future elections. The attacks on Romney are coming from people associated with an emerging, modernising wing of the Republican party who want the party to broaden its appeal and believe its recent shift to the right runs the risk of making the party far too reliant on older, white voters. However, Romney's comments during the donor phone call have surprised many experts. It was widely thought that Romney, who governed Massachusetts as a moderate Republican, was uncomfortable with some of the conservative positions he had to take to win his party's 2012 nomination. But his remarks suggest that he is still going to hew to a more conservative line that echoes some of the infamous phrases he made on a secretly-taped video at a donor meeting about the "47%" of Americans who pay no income tax. One Republican politician, Idaho congressman Raul Labrador, was brutal in his assessment of Romney's position in the party. "He's not going to be running for anything in the future," he told the Washington Post. That is true. Romney has no natural base in the Republican party, outside the world of high finance and big business. Unlike failed 2008 challenger John McCain – who remains very active in the Senate – Romney has no elected office to use as a platform. That is going to be make if difficult for Romney to influence either public opinion or Republican politicians. Nor is he now trusted by many people on either wing of the Republican party. Moderates look set to disavow him as a divisive conservative who failed to adapt to a changed American electorate, while the right wing still sees him as an unconvincing convert to their causes.
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Minute-by-minute: Anthony Pilkington scored the only goal of the game as United surrendered leadership of the division. Scott Murray was watching
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Palestinian militants continue to fire rockets across border, and Tunisia's foreign minister visits Gaza in show of solidarity Israeli air strikes have hit the office building of the Hamas prime minister in Gaza, amid warnings of a dangerous escalation in the conflict with up to 75,000 Israeli reservists mobilised for a possible ground invasion. An explosion and air raid sirens were heard over the Israeli port city of Tel Aviv as Palestinian militants in Gaza continued to fire rocket salvoes across the border four days after Israel launched an air offensive. Israel said it had struck more than 800 targets in the Gaza Strip, with 200 air strikes over Friday night and Saturday morning. Gaza officials said about 500 rockets had been launched so far at Israel, according to Associated Press. Hamas, the Islamist group that runs the Gaza Strip, said an Israeli air strike had wrecked the office building of its prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, a day after a visit from Egypt's prime minister. The police headquarters in Gaza City was also hit, setting off a blaze that engulfed nearby houses and cars. A three-storey house belonging to the Hamas official Abu Hassan Salah was destroyed early on Saturday, with at least 30 people rescued from the rubble, Reuters reported. The US is scrambling to prevent a further escalation of what it described as a "very, very dangerous situation" in Gaza, and Britain has warned Israel it risks losing international support. The size of the reservists callup is on a scale comparable to Israel's invasion of Lebanon six years ago, and several times larger than the number drafted during the last major incursion into Gaza, in 2008. Tanks have been seen gathering near the Gaza border, and roads in the area have been closed to Israeli civilians. Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, told CNN that a ground invasion could come before the end of the weekend if the rocket attacks continued. "We don't want to get into Gaza if we don't have to. But if they keep firing at us … a ground operation is still on the cards," he said. "If we see in the next 24 to 36 hours more rockets launched at us, I think that would be the trigger." A rocket attack on Tel Aviv on Saturday, the third since hostilities began on Wednesday, was intercepted by Israeli missiles. Police said there were no casualties. In southern Gaza, Israeli aircraft went after the hundreds of underground tunnels used to smuggle in weapons, fuel and food from Egypt, people in the area reported. Six people, including five militants, were killed and dozens wounded in the various attacks on Saturday, said Ashraf al-Kidra, a Gaza health official. Up to 41 Palestinians including 13 civilians, and three Israeli civilians have been killed since the Israeli operation began, AP reported. Palestinians said their dead included at least eight children and a pregnant woman. Tunisia's foreign minister, Rafik Abdesslem, arrived in Gaza on Saturday to show solidarity and denounce the Israeli attacks. "What Israel is doing is not legitimate and is not acceptable at all," he said. "It does not have total immunity and is not above international law." On Friday the White House said Barack Obama had spoken to the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, about de-escalating the violence while reiterating his support for Israel's right to defend itself. The US president also spoke to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, in the hope he could influence Hamas. Britain's foreign secretary, William Hague, told the BBC that a ground invasion could cost Israel international support. "Israel does have to bear in mind that it is when ground invasions have taken place in previous conflicts that they have lost international support and a great deal of sympathy around the world." Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, called for a personal intervention by Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general. He said a "full-scale diplomatic initiative" by Ban over the next few days might be the only way to halt the violence. "The only hope for peace and security for the citizens of the region will be through re-starting the stalled negotiations towards agreeing a two-state solution," he said. But attitudes appeared to be hardening in Egypt, where Morsi denounced Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip as "a blatant aggression against humanity" and said Cairo "would not leave Gaza on its own". In a statement that will increase western concern about strengthening anti-Israel sentiment in post-revolutionary Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East, Morsi added: "Egypt today is not the Egypt of yesterday, and Arabs today are not the Arabs of yesterday."
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Plans by a gun shop in Los Lunas to give free shotgun to team that kills the most coyotes have been condemned by activists They are far from being an endangered species, but plans by a New Mexico gun shop owner to organise a two-day coyote hunt this weekend have sparked a storm of protest. Mark Chavez, owner of Gunhawk Firearms in the town of Los Lunas, has set up a simple competition: the team who kills the most coyotes wins a free shotgun or a pair of automatic rifles. But he now faces a deluge of condemnation by means of irate phone calls and a petition that has already attracted thousands of signatures, including many from outside the United States. There has even been a death threat against him, which is currently being investigated by the FBI. But Chavez is holding firm, arguing that the state has 300,000 coyotes roaming its ranchland and that the creatures are a plentiful pest that can hurt livestock. "This is my right to hunt and we're not breaking any laws," Chavez told the Associated Press news agency. Chavez organised the event after previous plans for a coyote hunt by a different local shooting business were shelved in the face of protests and negative media attention. It is backed by the local cattle ranchers association and there are no laws on the New Mexico books that would prevent the hunting coyotes. However, the contest has provoked strong condemnation from the influential local newspaper the Albuquerque Journal. In an editorial the paper said: "Let's be clear — staging a contest to see who can kill the most of any one species is not about hunting. At its core, real hunting is about respecting wildlife and its ecosystem. It understands a species' role in its environment and habitat. It is not about a blatant disregard for life that glorifies a weekend of blood sport for the sake of nothing more than mass killings."
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | President to meet Aung San Suu Kyi on fifth trip to Asia since he took office, part of long-term US focus on the region Barack Obama on Saturday left for his fifth trip to Asia since becoming president, part of a long-term re-balancing of US strategy away from Europe and the Middle East. The highlight of the trip will be a potentially emotional meeting with the Burmese dissident and human rights campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi at her home in Rangoon, a visit few in America would have thought possible when Obama was first voted into office in 2008. Just as important as trying to help Burma emerge as a fully-fledged democracy are his trips to Thailand and Cambodia, which is hosting a meeting of east Asian leaders, including those of Japan and China. The Obama administration has been open about the dangers to US dominance posed by the rapid rise of China. The long-term US aim is to contain it, to prevent it becoming the pre-eminent power in the region, and to compete on at least equal terms economically and militarily. "We have in every context made clear to Beijing that there's a cost to coercive behaviour, problematic conduct, whether that's on the economic front or on the security front," Danny Russel, senior director for Asia on the White House's national security council, told reporters in a conference call ahead of Obama's trip. "Our objective is to shape the environment in the Asia-Pacific region in which the peaceful rise of important countries, including China, contributes to the common good, is fundamentally stabilising and not destabilising." Japan was once the cornerstone of US policy in the region but its importance has slipped with the rise of China. US strategy is now to ring China with a series of close American allies that extends well beyond Japan. Obama, who was brought up in Indonesia and Hawaii and appears less wedded to Europe than his White House predecessors, immediately on taking office in 2009 called for a strategic review, asking where the US was "over-weighted" and where it was "under-weighted". The conclusion was that the US was "over-weighted" in some areas such as the Middle East and "under-weighted" in Asia and the Pacific. Ben Rhodes, a national security council spokesman, said an extraordinary amount of time was spent on Asia in the first Obama term. "Continuing to fill in our pivot to Asia will be a critical part of the president's second term and ultimately his foreign policy legacy," he said. "We see this as an opportunity to dramatically increase US exports, to increase US leadership in the fastest-growing part of the world, and in advancing our values as well as our interests, which this trip is designed to do." Tom Donilon, Obama's national security adviser, told a Center for Strategic and International Studies conference in Washington this week: "Our approach is grounded in a simple proposition: the United States is a Pacific power whose interests are inextricably linked with Asia's economic, security and political order. America's success in the 21st century is tied to the success of Asia." It is partly economic. Asia accounts for about 25% of global GDP and this is expected to grow to almost 30% over the next three years. Donilon portrayed the US military presence as a benign stabilising influence rather than a potentially dangerous counterweight to China. "In terms of security, it is widely recognised that regional security – the foundation for the region's phenomenal economic growth in recent decades – requires a stabilising American presence," he said. "The US has security obligations to our allies and partners in the region, which is home to several of the world's biggest militaries and flashpoints such as the Korean peninsula." Obama's first stop is Thailand, where he will provide accompanying journalists with an almost immediate photo opportunity, with a tour of the Wat Pho royal monastery. He goes from there to meet the king and afterwards the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra. The next day he heads to Burma. Although he will be applauded by some for encouraging Burma down the road towards democracy, Obama can also expect criticism for talking to a regime with an appalling human rights record and brutal repression of ethnic minorities. Hundreds of prisoners were released by Burma last week ahead of Obama's visit but human rights campaigners said no political prisoners were included. Obama is almost certain to address the human rights issues in a major speech while in Burma. Russel said: "This is not a victory celebration. This is a barn-raising. This is a moment when we believe that the Burmese leaders have put their feet on the right path, and that it's critical to us that we not miss a moment to influence them to keep them going." Next up, will be Cambodia and the east Asia summit where he will meet China's outgoing premier Wen Jiabao and Japanese prime minister Yoshihiko Noda on Tuesday. It comes at a tense time in China-Japan relations, with the two laying claim to islands in the East China Sea.
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Minute-by-minute report: Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool are all in action, while it's QPR v Southampton at the bottom. Join Sean Ingle
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Emmanuel Adebayor scored and was sent off in the first 20 minutes as Arsenal beat Spurs 5-2 for the second time this year
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Central Valley farmers had hoped to halt work on $68bn plan over environmental concerns in state's agricultural heartland A judge has denied a request from Central Valley farmers who sought to halt work on California's ambitious high-speed rail project, allowing work on the $68bn project to continue at an aggressive pace. Sacramento County superior court judge Timothy Frawley denied a request for a preliminary injunction, saying that the agency overseeing the project "acted reasonably and in good faith" in trying to comply with California environmental law. Groups representing Central Valley farmers had hoped to stop the California High-Speed Rail Authority from all planning and engineering work because of their claims that the authority did not thoroughly weigh the potential environmental harms of the project. Frawley did not rule on the merits of their case, which is expected to be heard this spring, but said he was persuaded that the state generally sought to comply with California's rigorous environmental laws, and that the potential harm to the state was much greater than the potential harm to farmers along the route. The rail authority's chairman, Dan Richard, applauded the decision. "Both the voters and the legislature have spoken on high-speed rail," he said in a statement. "The judge's decision ensures that we can continue to move forward with our preparatory work to build the first segment of high-speed rail in the Central Valley, with a plan to break ground next summer." The initial section will be a 65-mile segment running from Merced to Fresno, in the heart of California's agricultural industry. In making his ruling Friday, the judge acknowledged that California laws require an understanding of a project's harm to the environment. Yet he said he did not feel there was sufficient reason to grant farmers a preliminary injunction, since actual construction is not slated to begin until July 2013. The rail authority argued in court that the potential harm to the state for halting the massive transportation project was far greater than the objections of Central Valley farmers and landowners _ up to $3.2bn in federal funding if the bullet train does not meet federal deadlines, and $8m to $10m in higher construction costs. "In this case – forgive me – we don't really care what goes on statewide. We're very concerned about what's happening in our county, and what's happening in our county is very real and it's happening every day," said Anja Raudabaugh, executive director of the Madera County Farm Bureau, one of the parties to the lawsuit. "My guys can't get operating loans to plant trees next year. My guys can't get operating loans to buy equipment for expanding their operations because they're in the footprint of the alignment." The decision allows the rail authority to begin buying land along the proposed route and continue with site surveys, engineering design work and geological testing that began months ago. Jeff Morales, chief executive of the rail authority, said the agency takes farmers' concerns seriously and wants to address them. With the court decision out of the way, "we can begin interacting with property owners much more directly and start working with them to address their particular concerns," he said outside court. The rail authority has already surveyed more than 300 parcels of land along the proposed route since Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation giving his approval in July. Lawmakers approved the first phase of the planned 800-mile line this summer, allowing the state to begin selling $2.6bn in bonds for construction of the first 130-mile stretch of the bullet train in the Central Valley. That approval also allowed the state to tap $3.2bn from the federal government. The money is contingent upon completing the first phase of the project by 2017, requiring what officials say is an unprecedented construction pace. Voters approved issuing $10bn in bonds for the project in 2008, but public support for the plan has dwindled in recent years as the project's expected costs have soared. The most recent estimate is at least $68bn for the completed project linking northern and southern California. In one of their court filings, opponents said rail officials are spending furiously because they hope "to become so financially committed to the currently conceived section alignment that it will be unthinkable to later choose another course."
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | • Hamdan airbase seizure prompts regime air strike
• Turkey reportedly on brink of asking Nato for missiles
• France establishes formal diplomatic links with opposition Syrian rebels have captured a military airport near the Iraqi border, prompting a retaliatory air strike by regime forces, according to opposition activists. The capture of the airbase came as Turkey was said to be on the brink of asking Nato for missiles to help defend its border with Syria. Separately, France became the first western country to formally establish diplomatic links with a new Syrian opposition movement as President François Hollande announced the appointment of a new Syrian envoy to Paris. Video footage published on Saturday by rebel groups showed fighters patrolling Hamdan airbase, a former agricultural hub in Deir el-Zour province that the government had only recently converted to military use. Control of the base would strengthen recent rebel gains in the civil war that activists say has killed 38,000 people since it was triggered early last year by a government clampdown on peaceful protests. If the rebels retain Hamdan it would leave only one airbase in government hands. It would also consolidate their control of Abu Kamal, a border city of more than 60,000, according to Rami Abdulrahman, head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "These new captures mean that the largest territory outside of regime control is now the region along the Iraqi border in Deir el-Zour," he said. There was no immediate response from the Syrian government or state television to the activists' claims. In a sign of deepening unease among Syria's neighbours, Turkey is expected to formally ask Nato to set up missiles on its border to prevent a spillover from the conflict, a German newspaper reported. The Munich-based Sueddeutsche Zeitung, quoting unnamed sources, said up to 170 German soldiers could be deployed as part of the mission. Turkey said on Friday it had intensified talks with Nato allies on how to tighten security along its 560-mile frontier with Syria after mortar rounds fired from Syria landed in its territory. "As we have said before, there have been talks between Turkey and Nato and Nato allies on various issues regarding the security risks and challenges and possible responses to issues regarding Turkey-Nato territories," a Turkish government official told Reuters in response to the Sueddeutsche Zeitung report. "Normally we could not reveal the nature of Nato deliberations while they continue." A spokeswoman for Nato, which has previously promised to help protect Turkey, said she could not confirm the report. "There hasn't been a request from Turkey. If there is a request from Turkey, of course allies will consider it," she said. On Saturday France, a harsh critic of Bashar al-Assad's government, became the first country to formally recognise a newly formed Syrian opposition coalition, following talks between Hollande and the coalition head, Mouaz al-Khatib. Both men later announced the appointment of Mounzir Makhous, an academic, as an ambassador to Paris. Britain has said it would like to recognise the coalition but negotiations were "at an early stage". The foreign secretary, William Hague, has urged the coalition to set out a credible plan for political transition and widen its support among the Syrian people. In a further development, a Turkish cameraman seized by Syrian forces while covering fighting in the city of Aleppo has been released following negotiations with his captors, Turkish media reported. Cuneyt Unal and reporter Bashar Fahmi, a Jordanian citizen of Palestinian origin, went missing in August while on assignment for the US-based Alhurra TV. There was no information on Fahmi's whereabouts.
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | • Hamdan airbase seizure prompts regime airstrike
• Turkey reportedly on brink of asking Nato for missiles
• France establishes formal diplomatic links with opposition Syrian rebels have captured a military airport near the Iraqi border, prompting a retaliatory airstrike by regime forces, according to opposition activists. The capture of the airbase came as Turkey was said to be on the brink of asking Nato for missiles to help defend its border with Syria. Separately, France became the first western country to formally establish diplomatic links with a new Syrian opposition movement after President François Hollande announced the appointment of a new Syrian envoy to Paris. Video footage published on Saturday by rebel groups showed fighters patrolling Hamdan airbase, a former agricultural hub in Deir el-Zour province that the government had only recently converted to military use. Control of the base would strengthen recent rebel gains in the civil war that activists say has killed 38,000 people since it was triggered early last year by a government clampdown on peaceful protests. If the rebels retain Hamdan it will leave only one airbase in government hands. It will also consolidate their control of Abu Kamal, a border city of more than 60,000, according to Rami Abdulrahman, head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "These new captures mean that the largest territory outside of regime control is now the region along the Iraqi border in Deir el-Zour," he said. There was no immediate response from the Syrian government or state television to the activists' claims. In a sign of deepening unease among Syria's neighbours, Turkey is expected to formally ask Nato to set up missiles on its border to prevent a spillover from the conflict, a German newspaper reported. The Munich-based Sueddeutsche Zeitung, quoting unnamed sources, said up to 170 German soldiers could be deployed as part of the mission. Turkey said on Friday it had intensified talks with Nato allies on how to tighten security along its 560-mile frontier with Syria after mortar rounds fired from Syria landed in its territory. "As we have said before, there have been talks between Turkey and Nato and Nato allies on various issues regarding the security risks and challenges and possible responses to issues regarding Turkey-Nato territories," a Turkish government official told Reuters in response to the Sueddeutsche Zeitung report. "Normally we could not reveal the nature of Nato deliberations while they continue." A spokeswoman for Nato, which has previously promised to help protect Turkey, said she could not confirm the report. "There hasn't been a request from Turkey. If there is a request from Turkey, of course allies will consider it," she said. On Saturday France, a harsh critic of Bashar al-Assad's government, became the first country to formally recognise a newly formed Syrian opposition coalition following talks between Hollande and the coalition head, Mouaz al-Khatib. Both men later announced the appointment of academic Mounzir Makhous as an ambassador to Paris. Britain has said it would like to recognise the coalition but negotiations were "at an early stage". The foreign secretary, William Hague, has urged the coalition to set out a credible plan for political transition and widen its support among the Syrian people. In a further development, a Turkish cameraman seized by Syrian forces while covering fighting in the city of Aleppo has been released following negotiations with his captors, Turkish media reported. Cuneyt Unal and reporter Bashar Fahmi, a Jordanian citizen of Palestinian origin, went missing in August while on assignment for the US-based Alhurra TV. There was no information on Fahmi's whereabouts.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Minute-by-minute report: Both sides need a win in the north London derby. Follow the action with Rob Smyth
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Southampton beat QPR 3-1 in the relegation clash while Chelsea lost ground against the Manchester clubs after defeat against WBA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Southampton beat QPR 3-1 in the relegation clash while Chelsea lost ground against the Manchester clubs after defeat against WBA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Up to 50 children, aged four to six, killed after bus carrying them to kindergarten collides with speeding train Up to 50 children have been killed in southern Egypt after the bus carrying them to kindergarten collided with a speeding train. The crash is believed to have happened when the bus, carrying more than 50 children aged between four and six, drove through a railway crossing near Manfalut, a village near Assiut. "They told us the barriers were open when the bus crossed the tracks and the train collided with it," said Mohamed Samir, a doctor at a hospital where injured survivors were taken. Officials said a crossing guard who was allegedly asleep at the time of the collision had been arrested. Ahmed Youssef, a witness, said he saw the train push the bus along the tracks for nearly half a mile. The bus was broken in half by the force of the collision. Photographs showed blood on the front of the train. State television reported that 15 people were injured in the collision. A medical source told the Reuters news agency that up to 28 people had been hurt, including 27 children. Families of the victims joined the search for survivors and bodies. A reporter at the scene said many of the remains were unrecognisable. One man picked up a body screaming: "Only God can help!" The state news agency Mena reported that Egypt's transport minister, Mohammed el-Meteeni, had offered his resignation to President Mohamed Morsi. The agency said Morsi had ordered an investigation into the accident and promised that those responsible would be held accountable. The prime minister, Hisham Kandil, was en route to the scene of the incident. Yahya Keshk, the governor of Assuit, said the railway crossing had been open at the time of the collision. "The crossing worker was asleep. He has been detained," he said. Egypt's railway system has a poor safety record. The railway's worst disaster took place in February 2002 when a train heading to southern Egypt caught fire, killing 363 people. Accidents blamed on negligence occurred regularly during the rule of Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted as president last year after a popular uprising. Mubarak was accused of valuing loyalty over competence in appointing senior officials. This latest accident is the worst such tragedy since Morsi took power this summer.
  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Europe to decide this week on helping Nasa to build a manned spaceship to travel to deep space Europe is preparing plans to join the United States in building a manned spaceship that would take men and women to the moon and beyond. The project is supported by the UK and could see a British astronaut launched into deep space before the end of the decade. The proposal to join in construction of the four-person US Orion spaceship will be debated at a meeting of ministers of the European Space Agency's 20 member states in Italy this week. If passed, it would mean that for the first time Europe would be involved in building and launching manned space vehicles. "Europeans will have the power to put men and women into space," Jean-Jacques Dordain, director general of the European Space Agency, told the Observer in an exclusive interview. "That would be a fantastic development for us." Among the European candidates who might fly on the new spaceship, which should be ready for flight by 2017, would be UK astronaut Tim Peake. A qualified army helicopter pilot, Peake was selected three years ago to be one of six new European astronauts and has been training in Germany since then. At the time of his selection, it was assumed Peake's best chance of space flight would be a mission to the International Space Station. Now he and his five colleagues have a chance of a deep space flight thanks to the US request for Europe to join in its Orion programme. The Orion capsule – known officially as the Multiple Purpose Crew Vehicle – is designed to carry astronauts on missions of up to six months and could take men and women to the moon, or an asteroid or possibly even Mars. The plan for Europe to join the US in building Orion spaceships stems from Nasa's decision to privatise crew and cargo flights to the space station. Companies such as PayPal founder Elon Musk's SpaceX are expected to take over this role in a couple of years. This would leave Europe – whose own unmanned ATV cargo capsules provide supplies for the space station – without a role in running the station. "Nasa asked us to start discussions with them about alternative plans and we agreed the best idea was for us to become involved in its new spaceship which is intended to take astronauts beyond the space station and into deep space on exploration missions," said Dordain. "Under the plan, we would build the service module that contains the capsule's propulsion, attitude and guidance systems while the Americans would build the part that carries the astronauts." At present, the project would not guarantee Europe one of the four astronaut places on Orion when it is launched. However, Dordain indicated that he expected Europe would be given places on future Orion deep space missions. One of those could go to Peake. "The first two test flights of the new spaceship would take place around 2017," he said. "These would use existing Atlas V launchers. After that, a bigger rocket will be needed to take spaceships with full payloads into deep space. That launcher is still being developed and we have already held discussions with Nasa with the aim of co-operating with them in working on this new launcher as well." In this way, Europe would be involved both in the building of rocket launchers for manned missions and the capsules that will carry the astronauts. However, the proposal has to be agreed at the meeting of ministers of Esa members states in Naples this week. "Britain has already indicated support," said Dordain. "Indeed, the only other main contributor to Esa's budget currently opposing the plan is France. However, I am hoping this is a negotiating ploy to win arguments over other issues at the ministerial meeting." Dordain, who has led the European Space Agency since 2003, believes that no single nation can now afford to carry out manned space exploration on its own. The future lies with international co-operation like that proposed between the US and Europe. "There is not a single space power left in the world that thinks they can afford to send men and women to explore the moon or Mars on their own national budget. This is something that will have to be done by international co-operation. Even the Chinese, who have so far done it on their own, are looking for partners. We are in discussions with them. Some of our astronauts are learning Chinese and there are Chinese astronauts training at our centre in Germany. We have no concrete plans as yet but it is clear that future of manned space exploration lies with international co-operation."
 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Up to 47 children, aged four to six, killed after bus carrying them to kindergarten collides with speeding train Up to 47 children have been killed in southern Egypt after the bus carrying them to kindergarten collided with a speeding train. The crash is believed to have happened when the bus, carrying more than 50 children aged between four and six, drove across a railway line. "They told us the barriers were open when the bus crossed the tracks and the train collided with it," Dr Mohamed Samir said, citing witness accounts. A witness said the train pushed the bus along the tracks for nearly half a mile near Manfalut, a village near Assiut, more than 200 miles south of Cairo. Two hospital officials said between seven and 11 wounded were being treated in two different facilities, many with severed limbs. Accounts of the death toll varied between 38 and 47. Families of the children joined the search for survivors and bodies after the collision but a reporter at the scene said many of the remains were unrecognisable. "My children! I didn't feed you before you left," said Um Ibrahim, a mother of three. One man picked up a body screaming: "Only God can help!" The state news agency Mena reported that Egypt's transport minister, Mohammed el-Meteeni, had offered his resignation to President Mohammed Morsi. The agency said Morsi ordered an investigation into the accident and said those responsible would be held accountable. Egypt's railway system has a poor safety record. The railway's worst disaster took place in February 2002 when a train heading to southern Egypt caught fire, killing 363 people.
| | | | | | | | | |  | |  | |  |
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire