samedi 22 décembre 2012

12/22 The Guardian World News

 
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Margaret Thatcher 'absolutely fine' after bladder operation
December 21, 2012 at 8:44 PM
 

Former prime minister expected to be kept in hospital overnight on Friday after having growth removed from bladder

Former prime minister Lady Thatcher is "absolutely fine" in hospital after undergoing a minor operation, a spokeswoman says.

The 87-year-old was admitted to hospital on Thursday and is expected to be kept in overnight on Friday after having a growth removed from her bladder.

"She is absolutely fine," the spokeswoman said of Thatcher, who has suffered some ill health in recent years.

Lord Tim Bell, the PR and advertising figure who was a close adviser to Thatcher, said she was expected to need several days of recuperation.

It could well mean she will spend Christmas in hospital, where she has been accompanied by her daughter Carol. Her son, Mark, is believed to be on holiday overseas.

Bell said the former politician had been in some pain earlier in the week and was sent by her doctor to hospital where it was decided the operation was required.

It was a short procedure using what was described as "minimally invasive surgery", he said. "She's fine," he added.

Thatcher was not well enough to join the Queen for a lunch with former and serving prime ministers as part of the diamond jubilee this summer and she missed an 85th birthday party thrown for her by David Cameron two years ago at No 10 Downing Street.

In October she was sufficiently well, however, to mark her 87th birthday with lunch at a restaurant in London with Mark and his wife.

Her health was thrust into the global spotlight last year when Meryl Streep starred in a Hollywood film about her. The Iron Lady drew criticism from Cameron and others for concentrating on the dementia she has suffered after a series of small strokes.


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NRA chief breaks post-Newtown silence to call for armed guards at schools
December 21, 2012 at 7:05 PM
 

Wayne LaPierre's statement – twice interrupted by protesters – dashes hopes of gun control advocates looking for debate

The National Rifle Association, one of the most powerful lobbying groups in the US, has called for armed security guards to be posted in every school in the country and insisted that the only solution to gun violence in the wake of the Newtown massacre was more guns.

A week almost to the hour after a gunman blasted his way into Sandy Hook elementary school in Connecticut, killing 20 first-grade children as well as six staff members, the NRA's executive vice-president Wayne LaPierre finally broke his silence and delivered a defiant message to the nation.

Throwing down the gauntlet to Barack Obama, he declared: "The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun." That is a mantra that he has used after several previous mass shootings.

His statement dashed hopes of gun control advocates that the NRA would be willing to engage in debate about tighter restrictions on gun ownership, such as a ban on assault weapons and large capacity magazines of the type used by Adam Lanza in Newtown. On Tuesday, an NRA statement promised the organisation would make a "meaningful contribution" to prevent mass shootings.

Tom Mauser, who lost his son Daniel in the Columbine massacre, said that he was disappointed but not surprised by LaPierre's comments. "He conceded nothing and completely ignored the desire of a lot of Americans for change – for the NRA change means just more guns."

LaPierre's comments set the scene for what could become a defining battle of Obama's second term in office. The president has already indicated that he means to use all powers at his disposal to effect meaningful change in America's relationship with guns, and has appointed his vice president Joe Biden to lead a national taskforce on the issue.

Over the past 20 years the NRA has proven to be a formidable foe of advocates of greater gun controls. By mobilising its army of three to four million members, backed up by a fearsome lobbying operation on Capitol Hill, the organisation has succeeded in blocking or watering down most previous attempts at tightening the country's uniquely lapse gun laws.

The NRA chief's unbending response to Newtown was delivered at a packed press conference in Washington that was disrupted twice by hecklers carrying banners that said "NRA: Killing Our Kids" and "NRA: Blood On Its Hands". In the course of about half an hour, LaPierre laid blame for the Sandy Hook massacre on several other parties including the media, politicians in favour of gun-free zones, the country's mental health services, gamers and the film studios that make violent movies – but brooked no criticism of the NRA itself.

He warned that there were "dozens, maybe more than 100 … monsters" out there already planning the next attack on an unprotected school. The only way to stop another gun rampage was to put guns in schools.

He said: "If we truly cherish our kids, more than money, more than our celebrities, we must must give them the greatest level of protection possible and the security that is only available with a properly trained – armed – good guy."

If Lanza – who also killed his mother last Friday before the attack on the school – had been confronted by a qualified armed security guard as he began his shooting spree, LaPierre ponderedI "isn't it at least possible that 26 little kids might have been spared that day?"

While other elements of the conservative movement in America have waxed and waned over the past two decades – with both the evangelical right and the Tea party suffering setbacks in recent times – the NRA has managed to sustain its impact on the national debate despite the on-going carnage of gun violence that claims about 12,000 lives every year.

But instant reaction to LaPierre's speech from conservatives suggested that this time the lobbying group's leadership may have overreached itself. "I don't necessarily think having an armed guard outside every classroom is conducive to a positive learning environment," the Republican governor of New Jersey Chris Christie told The Record newspaper.

Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, told MSNBC that the speech was "very disturbing. The idea that the message is 'Let's put a gun in the hands of teachers in our classroom' – I do not think that's where rank-and-file NRA members expected this to go."

Polling by the Republican analyst Frank Luntz has shown that there is considerable support for tightened gun laws even among NRA members. Some 74% would like to see criminal background checks for everyone buying a gun, in contrast to current laws that allow private sellers dealing through gun shows and online to by-pass such safeguards.

Leading advocates of greater gun controls also lambasted the NRA chief. Michael Bloomberg, New York's mayor who has been a crusader against gun violence, called LaPierre's comments "a shameful evasion of the crisis facing our country. Instead of offering solutions to a problem they have helped create, they offered a paranoid, dystopian vision of a more dangerous and violent America where everyone is armed and no place is safe."

Daniel Gross, the president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, bemoaned that "what was said today is not indicative of the conversation the American public wants to have".

The Violence Policy Center pointed out that there had been two armed agents present at Columbine high school in Colorado during the 1999 assault that left 15 dead.

During the half-hour that LaPierre was in front of cameras two other events underlined the gravity of the debate that is now gripping America. The first was a minute's silence observed by the White House in respect for the dead of Newtown.

The second was a series of shootings that unfolded simultaneously on a quiet rural road outside Geeseytown in Pennsylvania. By the time the NRA chief stopped speaking, four more people had been added to the list of dead.


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UN crew killed as helicopter shot down in South Sudan
December 21, 2012 at 6:56 PM
 

United Nations confirms all four crew killed after helicopter shot down during reconnaissance mission in Jonglei state

South Sudan's armed forces shot down a UN helicopter on Friday, killing all four crew on board. UN spokesman Eduardo del Buey said the helicopter from the UN mission in South Sudan was on a reconnaissance mission when it was hit.

"Initial reports indicated the UN helicopter crashed and burned. The mission immediately launched a search and recovery mission. It has confirmed the death of all four crew members," Del Buey said.

"In subsequent communications between the mission and the South Sudanese armed forces, the SPLA [South Sudan's army] told the mission that it has shot down the helicopter in the Likuangole area in Jonglei state," he said. The mission is investigating, he added.

But South Sudan's army denied the UN accusation, saying rebels – not government forces – had brought down the aircraft, a Russian-built Mi-8 helicopter.

"The SPLA did not shoot down the helicopter. Rebels of Yau Yau shot it down," army spokesman Kella Kueth said, referring to rebels led by David Yau Yau who are fighting the army in Jonglei state.

Russian news agency Itar-tass quoted a source at the Russian embassy in South Sudan as saying on Friday: "According to preliminary data, a Mi-8 helicopter owned by Nizhnevartovskavia company working under a UN contract was downed today in the afternoon."


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John Boehner fights for his political life after failure of fiscal cliff talks
December 21, 2012 at 6:39 PM
 

Speaker says he is not concerned for his job but pressure rises after Republican right rejects tax rises to solve budget crisis

The Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, has signalled that he is not planning to quit after a congressional debacle that left negotiations over US debt and spending in chaos and brought closer the prospect of the country falling over the "fiscal cliff" on 1 January.

With house members having left Washington on Thursday night for Christmas and senators scheduled to leave Friday afternoon, the prospect of a deal before the deadline appeared bleak.

Boehner, speaking at a press conference on Friday morning regarding how a deal could be found, summed up the mood in Washington. "How we get there? God only knows," he said.

The Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, to whom Boehner shifted responsibility for finding a deal, made an opening bid, suggesting the Senate take up a bill that has already passed the House that would extend for another year the present tax breaks for everyone that were introduced during the presidency of George W Bush. The proposal will not fly for the Democrats, but at least it is the start of a process.

Until now, McConnell has shown little interest in becoming involved in the negotiations. McConnell proposed the House bill as a starting point to which the Democrats could introduce amendments and differences between the House and Senate versions be hammered out.

"It's called legislating, folks," McConnell said. "It's what Congress used to do."

News of the breakdown of talks triggered a sell off on the US stock markets on Friday, with the Dow Industrial Average falling by more than 160 points before noon.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, said more sell-offs would come until a deal was done. "Everyday that there isn't an agreement will be a drag on the economy," he said.

The swift change in mood contrasts with earlier this week, when President Barack Obama and Boehner had been closing in on a deal that would have raised taxes and cut spending. But Democrats and Republicans now appear further away from a deal than they did a month ago, after a stunning reversal in congress on Thursday night.

Boehner's credibility and authority as speaker are on the line, after he failed to push through a Republican bill aimed offering a short-term fix. He had to withdraw it when he was confronted by a revolt from mainly Tea Party-backed Republicans, who were unwilling to countenance any tax rise.

Although he denied on Friday he was washing his hands of the whole issue and said that he would continue talking to Obama, Boehner effectively abandoned the talks process by saying it was not up to the Senate and the White House, rather than the House of Representatives, to come up with a solution.

Sean West, a policy analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said the breakdown meant the US was "in a different world than it was earlier this week".

"This is the end of the second act," he said. "Boehner has far less options than he did and it certainly increases the risk that a deal won't be done. That said we still believe the likelihood is that a solution will be found."

This is the latest in a number of showdowns between the White House and Congress during Obama's presidency. What stunned Washington on Thursday night was that the failure of Boehner's "Plan B" represented a dramatic break from the familiar pattern of political to-ing and fro-ing that eventually ends in a deal. It showed that if Boehner cannot control his own members, the chances of him securing a deal seem slim.

Boehner faces an election for speaker early in January, when the new congress convenes. What should have been a relatively straightforward vote now looks one that could be risky for him. He could face a challenge from the Tea Party wing of the Republican party, with Eric Cantor, the majority leader in the house, waiting in the wings to take over.

Asked at the press conference if he was concerned about his job, Boehner said: "No, I'm not. Listen, you've all heard me say this and I've told my colleagues the same thing. If you do the right things every day for the right reasons, the right things happen."

Boehner insisted that the revolt had not been aimed at undermining him, but instead reflected concern among some Republicans about going against their principles and voting for a perceived tax rise.

"There a was a perception created that that vote last night was going increase taxes," he said. "Now I disagreed with that characterisation of the bill, but that impression was out there. We had a number of our members who just did not want to be perceived as having raised taxes. That was the real issue."

What made the debate such a humiliation for Boehner was that it was a purely Republican one. The so-called Plan B bill would have limited tax rises in January just to those earning £1m or more a year. Democrats were opposed, wanting the rises to kick in at $250,000 or even, as Obama proposed, $400,000.

Cantor, who led a revolt against Boehner in the summer of 2011, during another showdown with the White House over the federal debt ceiling, was onside this time and faced humiliation of his own when he had confidently predicted that the Republicans had the numbers to get the bill through. Boehner further tied him in by bringing him along to the press conference on Friday.

Another potential loser in the debacle was the Republican congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney's presidential running-mate, whose backing for the bill will have cost him right-wing support.

One of Obama's main advisers, David Axelrod, interviewed on MSNBC, said: "The fact that they couldn't even pass that ['Plan B']was an embarrassment."

He added: "Hopefully over the weekend the speaker, the leadership will think that through and come back and be ready to negotiate seriously and move forward."


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Egyptian Islamists and opponents clash before final vote on constitution
December 21, 2012 at 6:09 PM
 

At least 42 people injured as riot police swing batons and fire teargas to separate protesters in Alexandria

Thousands of Islamists have clashed with their opponents in Egypt's second largest city, Alexandria, a day before the second leg of voting on a proposed constitution that has deeply polarised the country.

Riot police swung batons and fired volleys of teargas to separate the stone-throwing crowds, made up of Muslim Brotherhood members and ultraconservative Salafis on one side, and youthful protesters on the other. The clashes started when the two groups met just after Friday afternoon prayers near the city's main mosque.

The demonstrators, some of whom carried black Islamic battle flags, withdrew from the mosque area under a heavy cloud of teargas some two hours after the clashes began. Fighting continued along the coastal road of the Mediterranean city, near the medical school and famed Bibliotheca Alexandrina.

At least 42 people were being treated for injuries, with some rushed to the hospital, a city health official said.

It was unclear who started the fight. Islamists had called for a big rally outside the Qaed Ibrahim mosque, and some 20 liberal political parties had said they would not hold a rival gathering to avoid clashes.

Security forces had cordoned off streets leading to the mosque as throngs of Salafi Islamists, most wearing the long beards favoured by the movement, gathered for what they called "the million-man rally to defend clerics and mosques". Some chanted "God is Great" and warned opponents: "With blood and soul, we redeem Islam."

The rally was called in response to violence last week when a well-known Alexandrian Salafi cleric, Sheik Ahmed el-Mahalawi, was trapped inside a mosque for 12 hours while his supporters battled rock-throwing opponents outside with swords and firebombs. El-Mahalawi, 87, had stirred anger with a sermon in which he denounced opponents of the Islamist-friendly draft constitution as "followers of heretics".

In a sermon on Friday, he accused the media of spreading lies and claimed that last week's clashes were meant to prevent voting in the referendum.

The final round of voting on the disputed charter is to be completed on Saturday in the remaining 17 of Egypt's 27 provinces.

Critics charge that the Islamist-dominated body that wrote the draft document did not represent all Egyptians. Liberal and Christian members quit the assembly to protest clauses and articles they say were rammed through by hardline members aiming to create a religious state.

The opposition National Salvation Front reiterated its call on Friday for voters to oppose the document, and one of the group's leaders, Mohamed ElBaradei, urged President Mohamed Morsi to suspend the referendum and form a new constituent assembly.

With election authorities, army and police preparing for Saturday's voting however, ElBaradei's televised message looked unlikely to shift Morsi's position.

"If this constitution passed, there will be no stability," said Baradei, a Nobel laureate and Egypt's leading pro-democracy advocate.

The first round of voting was held in 10 provinces last Saturday, including in Egypt's biggest cities, Cairo and Alexandria. Turnout was low, around 32%, and unofficial results showed around 56% of voters cast a "yes" vote in support of the constitution. Rights groups and the opposition immediately filed complaints alleging irregularities.

Controversy over the proposed constitution has in the past month plunged Egypt into political turmoil unprecedented since the February 2011 ouster of Hosni Mubarak.

The draft has split the country into two camps. On one side are the Islamists from the country's most organised group, the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Morsi hails, and their backers from various Salafi and former jihadist groups.

The opposition camp, led by the National Salvation Front, is an alliance of liberal parties and youth groups backed by Christians and moderate Muslims who fear the Brotherhood's attempts to monopolise power by passing a constitution that enshrines a greater role for clerics and Islamic law.

Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians from both sides have rallied in the streets over the past month. The crisis peaked when Brotherhood supporters attacked an opposition sit-in outside the presidential palace in Cairo on 5 December. The ensuing violence left at least 10 dead and hundreds injured on both sides.

The crisis was compounded by Morsi's decision to rush the draft constitution to a referendum after an Islamist-dominated panel approved it, as well as his move last month to grant himself near-absolute powers, which were later rescinded.

Morsi's moves have also split state institutions. The judiciary became another battleground, with the powerful Judges' Club calling on its members to boycott the vote while Brotherhood sympathisers in the legal system and other independents insisted on supervising it.

Egyptian prosecutors held a sit-in protest to press Morsi-appointed prosecutor general Talaat Abdullah to resign on Monday. Abdullah resigned, then retracted his resignation on Thursday, raising the prospect of new protests by fellow prosecutors.

Zaghloul el-Balshi, the secretary general of the election committee who is also a judge and an aide to the justice minister, resigned on Wednesday, citing health reasons. The media said his resignation was prompted by his inability to prevent voting violations in the first leg of the referendum.


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John Kerry to be nominated to replace Hillary Clinton at State Department
December 21, 2012 at 6:07 PM
 

Barack Obama to select former Democratic presidential nominee who is expected to be easily confirmed by Congress

Barack Obama is to nominate senator John Kerry, the former Democratic party presidential candidate, as his secretary of state to replace Hillary Clinton.

Kerry, the 69-year-old chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, is expected to have a relatively easy ride through the congressional approval process, unlike the previous frontrunner for the role, Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations.

A number of Republicans have touted him as an alternative to Rice, who withdrew from consideration in the face vehement opposition because of her role in the administration's initially misleading account of the attack which killed the US ambassador to Libya.

Kerry's nomination comes as Clinton recovers from concussion after she collapsed earlier this month.

Republicans have made clear their support. The party's leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, last week praised the prospect of Kerry as secretary of state. Senator John McCain, who was at the forefront of Republican efforts to block Rice, jokingly called Kerry "Mr Secretary" last week.

Kerry, who lived in Berlin as a child when the city was at the heart of cold war tensions and later attended a Swiss boarding school, has a close relationship with Obama, who gave a keynote speech during Kerry's nomination as presidential candidate at the Democratic convention in 2004. Kerry went on to become an early supporter of Obama's own bid for the presidency.

The president has dispatched Kerry on several sensitive diplomatic missions including to Pakistan after the US raid that killed the al-Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, badly damaged Washington's relations with Islamabad. He also persuaded the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, to agree to an election runoff in 2009 and led US attempts to reach out to the Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, at the beginning of the uprising.

Nicholas Burns, a former career diplomat and ambassador who served as Condoleezza Rice's undersecretary for political affairs, told CNN that Kerry is a good nomination.

"There are very few people with greater experience over a longer period of time. He would be a very, very impressive choice," he said. "You really need someone who is a renaissance person with a tremendous range of skill, both political and substantive, with a deep reservoir of knowledge. You need someone who can drill several layers deep on foreign policy issues."

Kerry will face a long list of diplomatic challenges from the Syrian uprising and Iran's nuclear programme to Israel's ever more belligerent attitude toward Jewish settlement expansion amid warnings that the two state solution is moving beyond reach.

He will also have to grapple with the aftermath of the militia assault in Benghazi in which the US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, and three other Americans were killed. An independent board issued a report this week that made stinging criticisms of the state department's handling of security in Benghazi and forced the resignation of four senior department officials.
Kerry will have to oversee significant reforms as a result of the report while also grappling with budget cuts.

But he made clear his respect for the state department and the work it does at a Senate foreign affairs committee hearing into the Benghazi report on Friday. Kerry called for better funding for the state department as he described diplomacy as a means of staving off conflicts that are far more expensive in lives and money.

"Adequately funding America's foreign policy objectives is not spending. It's investing in our long term security and more often than not it saves far more expensive expenditures in dollars and lives for the conflicts that we fail to see or avoid," he said.

Eight years ago, Republicans launched fierce attacks on Kerry's credibility as he ran for president against George W Bush, homing in on his military service in Vietnam. A well funded campaign challenged his war hero status as a US navy lieutenant commanding a gunboat, known as a Swift Boat, in the Mekong Delta where he won several medals. A secretly funded group, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, ran an advertising campaign accusing Kerry of lying about two of his awards.

After leaving the military, Kerry openly questioned the government's claims about the war and was highly critical as a witness before the Senate foreign relations committee he would go on to chair years later.


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NRA's LaPierre calls for armed guards in schools after Newtown shooting
December 21, 2012 at 5:06 PM
 

NRA chief defends organisation and accuses media of 'misinformation and dishonesty' in its portrayal of gun ownership

• Read Wayne LaPierre's full statement on behalf of the NRA

Wayne LaPierre, the executive vice-president of the National Rifle Association, has called for an armed security guard to be placed in every school in America, in a defiant response to the mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut last week.

With the NRA under more pressure over its hardline position over gun rights than at any time since the Columbine massacre of 1999, LaPierre made no concession to his critics and placed all blame for the Newtown shooting on others – including pro-gun control politicians, the media and health services that failed to apprehend mentally-ill killers. He said that the NRA would produce a plan to create "security shields" around every single school in the country, with armed guards at the entrance.

"The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun," LaPierre said. He said that if Adam Lanza, the Newtown gunman, had been confronted by a qualified armed security guard as he began blasting his way into Sandy Hook elementary school last Friday, "isn't it at least possible that 26 little kids might have been spared that day".

In fact, 20 children died in Sandy Hook school, along with six staff members.

LaPierre delivered his comments at a press conference in Washington a week almost to the hour after the Newtown massacre took place. In the wake of the shooting, there have been mounting calls for moves to control guns including a ban on military-style assault weapons, a cap on high-capacity magazine and tightened background checks on private gun sellers.

The NRA chief made no mention of any of those issues, other than to accuse the US media of "misinformation and dishonesty" in its portrayal of gun ownership in the country. His only mention of President Barack Obama, who has called for national action to combat the carnage of mass shootings, was to charge him with removing a federal budget for a "secure our schools" policing programme.

As he spoke, the NRA's executive vice-president was interrupted twice by protesters carrying banners that said "NRA: Killing Our Kids" and "NRA: Blood On Its Hands".

The White House maintained a minute's silence for Newtown that fell coincidentally, or perhaps intentionally, while LaPierre was speaking. The
fierce intransigence of the NRA after the Connecticut tragedy underlines the difficulty that Obama will have in pushing ahead with reforms designed to prevent lethal weapons falling into the hands of potential mass killers.

The NRA has consistently resisted any move towards tightened gun controls after gun rampages over the past 20 years. The group, which has up to 4 million members across the US, has proven to be a formidable legislative adversary, wielding huge power within Congress and spreading fear among politicians who dare to defy it.

The group went head to head with the Clinton administration in the 1990s, and actively campaigned against Obama in 2008 and in last month's presidential election.

In his writings, LaPierre has accused Obama of entering a plot with the UN to eradicate all guns from the US.

In the speech, the NRA chief warned that there were "dozens, maybe more than 100… monsters" already planning the next attack on an unprotected school. The only way to stop another gun rampage, he said, was to put guns in schools.

He said: "If we truly cherish our kids, more than money, more than our celebrities, we must must give them the greatest level of protection possible and the security that is only available with a properly trained – armed – good guy."


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NOAA: 2012 to rank as second costliest US year since 1980
December 21, 2012 at 4:52 PM
 

The 11 billion-dollar extreme weather events across the US include hurricane Sandy, which alone will cost about $100bn

During 2012, there were 11 extreme weather and climate events in the US that reached the billion-dollar threshold in losses, according to figures released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday. While the total number of billion-dollar natural disasters is down from 2011, when there were a record 14 events costing more than $60bn, the economic losses this year are expected to exceed last year's tab, largely due to the massive economic toll caused by hurricane Sandy and the widespread drought.

Some cost estimates for hurricane Sandy alone have approached $100bn, and the drought is likely to be nearly, if not more, expensive.

The 11 billion-dollar events of 2012 include seven severe thunderstorm outbreaks, two hurricanes, the drought and wildfires. NOAA put the death toll from these events at 349.

According to two NOAA climatologists, the ongoing drought, which still encompasses more than half of the lower 48 states, is the most extensive drought event since the dust bowl of the 1930s. The dust bowl droughts were more intense, however, and lasted longer than the current drought has so far.

Global warming is influencing certain types of extreme weather and climate events, especially heatwaves, wildfires, and extreme precipitation events. Studies have shown, for example, that global warming increases the odds of extreme heat events, and several unusual heatwaves, most especially a March heat event, helped spread and intensify the drought.

However, Jake Crouch, a climatologist at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), said it is difficult to make direct connections between climate change and the economic losses from extreme events seen this year, or in other years.

"Climate change is having a role in these events but how much of a role is hard to tell at this time," Crouch said. Many other factors, including socioeconomic trends such as a rising population that is exposing more people and infrastructure to extreme weather events, are helping to drive disaster loss trends.

In a change from 2011, NOAA did not release an aggregate cost estimate from the billion-dollar disasters in 2012. Scientists said the agency is revising the ways it adjusts disaster losses for inflation to ensure the data is sound. The total losses from 2012 will be released in the middle of 2013, said Adam Smith, an applied climatologist with NCDC.

Smith said it is clear that 2012 was a more expensive year for natural disasters than 2011. In fact, the year is likely to rank as the second most expensive year for natural disaster losses since 1980, second only to 2005, when four hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina, made landfall along the Gulf coast. Those storms, along with other extreme events that year, caused $187.2bn in damage, when adjusted for inflation to 2012 dollars.

Although 2012 is likely to exceed the losses incurred last year, more people were killed by extreme weather and climate events in 2011 than in 2012, Smith said. That is largely due to the devastating tornado season last year, when 551 people lost their lives, the highest death toll since reliable records began in 1950.

In contrast, 2012 saw a very quiet tornado season, thanks in part to the ongoing drought. As of 18 December, the US had not had a tornado-related fatality in 177 days, the longest such streak in two decades. Of the seven severe thunderstorm outbreaks on the 2012 billion-dollar disaster list, only two are tornado outbreaks. The rest, such as the July derecho event in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, were losses due to straight-line winds and hail.


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Barack Obama planning to nominate John Kerry as next secretary of state
December 21, 2012 at 4:40 PM
 

Vietnam veteran and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee would replace Hillary Clinton as president reshuffles Cabinet

President Barack Obama on Friday will nominate senator John Kerry as his next secretary of state, a senior administration official said, making the first move in a sweeping overhaul of his national security team heading into a second term.

If confirmed, Kerry would take the helm at the State Department from outgoing Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has long stated her intentions to leave early next year. Kerry, a longtime senator, is expected to be easily approved for the cabinet post by his longtime congressional colleagues.

Obama will announce Kerry's nomination from the White House, said the official, who requested anonymity in order to discuss the president's decision before the announcement.

It was unclear whether Clinton would attend the announcement. The secretary fell and suffered a concussion last week, State Department officials said, and hasn't made public appearances since then.

Kerry's nomination could bring to a close what has become for the White House a contentious and distracting effort to name a new secretary of state.
Kerry was the Democratic nominee for president in 2004, losing a close election to incumbent George W Bush. He is a decorated Vietnam veteran who was critical of the war effort when he returned to the US, even testifying in front of the Senate committee he eventually chaired.

Kerry's only other rival for the job, UN ambassador Susan Rice, faced harsh criticism from congressional Republicans for her initial accounting of the deadly September attack on Americans in Benghazi, Libya. Obama vigorously defended Rice, a close friend and longtime adviser, but Republican senators dug in, threatening to hold up her nomination if the president tapped her for the post.

Rice withdrew her name from consideration last week, making Kerry all but certain to become the nominee. People familiar with the White House's decision-making said support within the administration was moving toward Kerry even before Rice pulled out.

Kerry, 69, is the first Cabinet nomination Obama has made since winning a second term, and the first piece in an extensive shuffle of his national security team. The president is also expected soon to nominate a new defense secretary to take over for retiring Leon Panetta and a new director of the Central Intelligence Agency to replace former spy chief David Petreaus, who resigned last month after admitting to an affair with his biographer.

Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has long sought the nation's top diplomatic post. Obama considered him for the job after the 2008 election before picking Clinton in a surprise move.

Since then, Obama has dispatched Kerry around the world on his behalf numerous times, particularly to tamp down diplomatic disputes in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He was also part of Obama's debate preparations team during the 2012 election, playing the role of Republican challenger Mitt Romney in mock debates.

Kerry also won praise from Obama aides for his sharp national security-focused speech at the Democratic national convention in August. He memorably told delegates: "Ask Osama bin Laden if he's better off now than he was four years ago."

Before nominating Kerry, the White House consulted with congressional Democrats about the fate of the Senate seat he has held for five terms. An open seat in Massachusetts could give recently defeated Republican Sen. Scott Brown a chance to win back a job in Washington.

Democrats have sought to assure the White House that the party has strong potential candidates in the state that could keep Kerry's seat from falling into Republican hands.

Kerry has pushed the White House's national security agenda in the Senate with mixed results. He ensured ratification of a nuclear arms reduction treaty in 2010 and most recently failed to persuade Republicans to back a UN pact on the rights of the disabled.


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Syria conflict: Assad fires more Scuds - Friday 21 December 2012
December 21, 2012 at 4:21 PM
 

Follow how the day unfolded after Nato and the US claimed the Assad government has resumed firing Scud missiles at rebels




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Fiscal cliff: Republican disarray after John Boehner's 'plan B' unravels - live
December 21, 2012 at 3:32 PM
 

America seems likely to go over the fiscal cliff after hardline Republicans refuse to back House speaker's 'plan B' tax bill




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Dozens killed in raid on village in Kenya
December 21, 2012 at 3:02 PM
 

Farmers armed with spears and AK-47 rifles attack village of herders as cycle of tit-for-tat killings continues

At least 39 people were killed when farmers raided a village of herders in south-eastern Kenya early on Friday in renewed fighting between two communities with a history of violent animosity, a police official said.

Thirteen children, six women, 11 men and nine attackers were killed, said the police official Anthony Kamitu.

Forty-five houses were set on fire during the attack, the Kenya Red Cross spokeswoman Nelly Muluka said.

Kamitu, who is leading police operations to prevent attacks in the region, said the Pokomo tribe of farmers had raided a village of the semi-nomadic Orma herding community at dawn in the Tana river delta. He said the raiders were armed with spears and AK-47 rifles.

At least 110 people were killed in clashes between the Pokomo and Orma in August and September.

The tit-for-tat cycle of killings may be related to a redrawing of political boundaries and next year's general elections, the UN humanitarian co-ordinator for Kenya, Aeneas C Chuma, said in late August. However, on the surface the violence seems driven by competition for water, pasture and other resources, he said.

Dhadho Godana, a member of parliament from the region, and the defence minister, Yusuf Hajji, have been accusing each other of involvement in the fighting. The two have testified before a commission of inquiry led by a high court judge investigating the clashes.

Political tensions and tribal animosities have increased due to competition among potential candidates in the March election.

Violence after Kenya's last general election, in late 2007, killed more than 1,000 people. Officials are working to avoid a repeat during March's presidential election, but episodes of violence around the country are raising fears that pockets of the country will see violence during the voting period.

The Tana river area is about 430 miles (690km) from the capital, Nairobi.

The utilisation of the Tana river water has been at the middle of a conflict pitting the Pokomo against the Orma, according to research by the Institute of Security Studies in 2004, following clashes in the Tana river area from 2000 to 2002.

The Pokomo claim the land along the river and the Orma claim the waters of the river, said the research by Taya Weiss, titled Guns in the Borderlands Reducing the Demand for Small Arms. At least 108 people died in the 2000-2002 clashes, according to the parliamentary record.

The longstanding conflict between the two tribes had previously resulted in relatively low casualties but the increased availability of guns has caused the casualties to escalate and more property to be destroyed, said the report.

It said a catalyst to the conflict was the collapse of three irrigation schemes at Bura, Hola and Tana delta, which influenced residents' lifestyles in terms of employment and sources of income.

"The collapse of these schemes forced the nomadic pastoralists to move during the wet season, while the farmers remained along the river. During the dry season the pastoralists move back to the river in search of water and pasture," it said.

The Tana river area has the characteristics of any other conflict-prone area in Kenya: underdevelopment, poor infrastructure, poor communication and social amenities, and social marginalisation, according to the report.

"Communities are arming themselves because of the need to defend against perceived attacks," said the report. "They feel that the government security machinery has not been able to effectively respond to violence. Isolation has led to increased demand for guns."


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2012 in America: the year in review
December 21, 2012 at 2:31 PM
 

A Mars rover captured our hearts, Brooklyn got a basketball team, Obama got four more years, and he did it all with Gangnam style


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High court rejects challenge over UK link to drone strikes in Pakistan
December 21, 2012 at 1:29 PM
 

Drone strike victim's son to appeal against court's refusal to bar British officials from sharing targeting intelligence with US

A Pakistani man whose father was killed in a US drone strike has failed to persuade the UK courts that British officials should be prevented from sharing targeting intelligence with the CIA.

Noor Khan said he would appeal against the high court's refusal to issue a declaration that support for US drone operations over Pakistan may involve acts of assisting murder or even war crimes.

His landmark challenge, backed by the human rights organisation Reprieve and the solicitors Leigh Day, was based on reports that the government's signal intelligence centre, GCHQ, passes on information about the location of Taliban suspects to the CIA.

Khan's father, Malik Daud Khan, was killed on 17 March 2011, the court was told. He had been presiding over an outdoor meeting of local elders to settle a commercial dispute when a missile was fired from a drone. Altogether 49 people perished in the attack.

Martin Chamberlain, counsel for Khan, told the court that a newspaper article in 2010 reported that GCHQ was using telephone intercepts to provide the US authorities with locational intelligence on leading militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The report suggested that the Cheltenham-based agency was proud of this work, which was said to be "in strict accordance with the law".

In its judgment the high court noted: "By assisting US agents to direct armed attacks in Pakistan, GCHQ employees are said to be at risk of committing offences under the criminal law of England and Wales, as secondary parties to murder. The claimant submits that there is no armed conflict in Pakistan, as it is recognised under international law, still less an international armed conflict, and thus GCHQ employees are not entitled to combatant immunity.

"The response of the secretary of state has been to invoke the consistent and conventional policy of neither confirming nor denying the assertions; to do so would risk damaging the important public interest in preserving the confidentiality of national security and 'vital' relations with international partners."

The two judges, Lord Justice Moses and Mr Justice Simon, said the real purpose of the legal action was "to persuade a court to do what it can to stop further strikes by drones operated by the United States. In this country, however, that presents the claimant with a formidable difficulty. His legal advisers acknowledge, as they have to acknowledge, that they cannot seek from this court a declaration that the United States' drone strikes are unlawful. They recognise that a domestic court would refuse to make such a declaration.

"Since an employee [of GCHQ] is unlikely to be in a position to know whether or how intelligence is disseminated, no sensible guidance could possibly be given as to the circumstances when intelligence may lawfully be passed on and when it may not. Merely passing on intelligence could not amount to an offence under the Serious Crime Act 2007 unless a particular state of mind could be proved against the provider [at that time]. So how is the declaration to be drafted to have any meaningful utility?"

Leigh Day confirmed that Khan would appeal against the decision. He is also involved in a parallel case in Peshawar's high court asking the Pakistani government to disclose its involvement – if any – in the drone strikes.

Rosa Curling, of Leigh Day, who represents Khan, said: "We are disappointed that the court has decided not to engage in this very important issue, leaving our client no option but to appeal the decision.

"This claim raises very serious questions and issues about the UK's involvement in the CIA drone attacks in Pakistan. This case seeks to determine the legality of intelligence sharing in relation to GCHQ assistance in CIA drone strikes. Those providing such information could be commiting serious criminal offences, including conspiracy to murder."

Kat Craig, legal director of Reprieve, said: "CIA drone attacks in Pakistan terrorise entire communities of innocent civilians in a country with which the UK is not at war. By avoiding judicial scrutiny over drone attacks, combined with its ongoing attempts to push through secret courts, this government is showing a disturbing desire to put itself above the law. We should not be involved in secret, dirty wars, where civilian casualties are ignored or hushed up. If the government is supporting the CIA's campaign of drone strikes which are illegal, the British public have the right to know."


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Malians call for swifter intervention to oust Islamists
December 21, 2012 at 12:18 PM
 

UN peacekeeping chief says operation may not begin until next autumn, by which time Malians fear militants will be entrenched

Malians living under al-Qaida-linked rebels have expressed dismay that it could be nearly a year before a regional military intervenes to oust the Islamists from power.

The UN's most powerful body on Thursday authorised an African-led force but made no mention of size and set no timeline for action.

The UN peacekeeping chief, Herve Ladsous, said recently he did not expect a military operation to begin until September or October of next year.

"We want rapid military action to liberate our cities," said Alphadi Cisse, who lives in Timbuktu. "There is no school, there is no work and no money. We are fed up with this situation."

The mayor of Timbuktu, which is controlled by the Islamist group Ansar Dine, has described conditions there as "a living hell". The militants have imposed their version of strict Islamic law known as sharia. They have stoned to death a couple accused of adultery, hacked off the hands of thieves and have recruited children as young as 12 into their ranks. Heavily armed men have also attacked bars that sell alcohol and banned men and women from socialising in the streets.

The turmoil has decimated the economy of Timbuktu, once a thriving tourist town.

Thursday's resolution, adopted unanimously by the UN security council, welcomes troop contributions pledged by Ecowas and calls on member states, including from the neighbouring Sahel region, to contribute troops to the mission. Council diplomats say the best-trained African troops in desert warfare are from Chad, Mauritania and Niger.

The resolution stressed that there must be a two-track plan – political and military – to reunify the country, which has been in turmoil since a coup in March. Islamist groups were able to take hold of northern Mali, an area the size of Texas, after the coup created a power vacuum.

Coup members created fresh turmoil earlier this month when they arrested the country's prime minister and forced him to resign – a move that raised new concerns about the ability of the Malian military to help regain control of the north.

The UN resolution also emphasises that further military planning is needed before a force can be sent and asks the secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, to "confirm in advance the council's satisfaction with the planned military offensive operation".

France's UN ambassador, Gerard Araud, told reporters that it was premature to say when the military operation would take place because African and Malian troops had to be trained and much depended on the political process and the country's extreme weather.

Northerners in Mali say the longer the world waits, the more entrenched the militants are becoming.

Hamadada Toure, a teacher from the city of Gao, urged the international community to follow through swiftly on its pledges to help free the north.

"If the resolution is not acted upon to chase the Islamists out of towns, all the comings and goings of diplomats and the mobilisation of the international community are a bluff," he said from southern Mali, where he sought refuge earlier this year.


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Tunisia aims to ease financial crisis with Ben Ali bling sale
December 21, 2012 at 12:15 PM
 

Cash-strapped government aims to trade Bentleys for buses as it launches £8m sell-off of dictator's 'ill-gotten gains'

Ever wanted to recreate the lifestyle of an authoritarian despot but weren't sure how? Now is your chance. In what is billed as a "sale of ill-gotten gains", Tunisia's finance ministry is seeking to ease its stretched current account by selling off cars, jewellery, furniture, pictures and assorted bling confiscated from the deposed president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his family.

Heavy security is in place around the Cleopatre exhibition space in Gammarth, a wealthy resort north of Tunis, for the opening on Saturday of a display of sale items including 34 luxury cars – semi-armoured Cadillac limousines, BMWs, Mercedes, two Lamborghini Gallardos, Bentleys, Aston Martins – and some 300 pieces of jewellery. Among the paintings, clothes, furniture and knick-knacks on show, the prevalence of gilded falcons and swallows in flight perhaps betrays the taste of the former first lady Leila Trabelsi, Tunisians speculate.

Cash dispensers and currency exchange desks stand at the ready. Smaller items will be sold at a fixed price, while anything priced at more than £4,000 will go to the highest bidder. Many pieces come from the Ben Ali family's sumptuous palace with a Mediterranean view at nearby Sidi Dhrif. The residence is itself now topping Tunis estate agents' lists as the authorities seek a wealthy Gulf buyer.

During the revolution that sparked the Arab spring two years ago, villas in Gammarth abandoned in haste by other members of the Ben Ali circle were looted, but the items on display there now came into public hands through the courts. The bling is just the most colourful part of a sell-off that includes confiscated shareholdings in a bank, two car importers and a cement plant. As Tunisians face up to the fact that their country is rather poorer than Ben Ali had them believe, the authorities have emphasised that the 20m dinars (£8m) they hope to raise from the Gammarth sale will go towards school buses for rural children and new roads.

The organisers evidently hope to attract not just well-heeled but public-spirited buyers looking for that special gift with a story behind it, but also members of the public ready to pay the 30 dinar entrance ticket to marvel at their former ruler's nouveau-riche excesses.

Times are hard for many this winter, however. Protests in poorer regions continue to discourage investment, taking unemployment to new highs in some towns and adding weight to arguments that the Islamist-led government lacks economic expertise. A shortage of milk in supermarkets is adding to the sombre public mood; parents of small children solicit tips as to which corner shops are handing out imported milk from under the counter.

The government has just announced a new finance minister, Elyes Fakhfakh of the centre-left Ettakatol party. His predecessor resigned last summer, claiming that spending on jobseekers' allowances and work schemes, and planned compensation payments to former political prisoners, would be unsustainable.

The finance ministry also said on Thursday that to make ends meet in 2014 it may have to resort to a $2.5bn (£1.5bn) credit line from the IMF.

This year's total budget of £10.6bn includes financial help from well-wishers including the World Bank, the EU, Qatar, and neighbouring Libya (which praised the generosity Tunisians showed towards refugees from the war there last year).

Ben Ali, Trabelsi and the couple's young son begin their third year of exile in Saudi Arabia in January. The Saudi government has declined to extradite them to Tunisia, where they have been convicted in absentia on charges including misuse of state funds. A once-favoured son-in-law, the 31-year-old Sakhr al-Materi (husband of Ben Ali's daughter Nesrine from a previous marriage), was questioned on 14 December at the airport in the Seychelles, after leaving his previous safe haven, Qatar. The Seychelles authorities later said he had left their territory. A Ben Ali brother-in-law and former kingpin of the Tunisian business world, Belhassen Trabelsi, is meanwhile wintering with his family in Canada, where he has applied for political asylum.


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North Korea detains US citizen
December 21, 2012 at 10:00 AM
 

State media said Pae Jun Ho entered North Korea on 3 November as a tourist, but was detained because of 'crimes'

North Korea claims it has detained an American citizen who has confessed to unspecified crimes.

State media said in a short dispatch on Friday that someone named Pae Jun Ho entered the country on 3 November as a tourist but was detained because of crimes.

It said the crimes were "proven through evidence" but did not elaborate.

Pyongyang has detained and eventually released several Americans in recent years. Some have been journalists and others Christians accused of religious proselytising.

In 2009, two journalists were held after crossing into the north from China while on a reporting trip. They were later released .

South Korean activists told local media in Seoul the detained man was a Korean American and was taken into custody after entering North Korea to guide tourists. He operates a tourism company that specialises in North Korea, the reports said.

The North Korean dispatch said officials from the Swedish embassy met the American on Friday, but there were no other details about the meeting.

Karl-Olof Andersson, Sweden's ambassador to North Korea, said he could not comment on the case and referred the matter to the US state department. Sweden represents the US in diplomatic affairs in North Korea since Washington and Pyongyang do not have diplomatic relations.

The detained American is undergoing "legal treatment" according to North Korea's criminal law, the official Korean Central News Agency said.


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