dimanche 23 décembre 2012

12/24 The Guardian World News

 
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US Navy Seal's apparent suicide in Afghanistan under investigation
December 23, 2012 at 11:03 PM
 

Commander Job W Price died from non-combat related injury while supporting operations in Uruzgan province

US military officials are investigating the apparent suicide of a Navy Seal commander in Afghanistan.

Navy Seal Commander Job W Price, 42, of Pottstown, Pennsylvania, died on Saturday from a non-combat-related injury while supporting stability operations in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan.

A US military official said the death "appears to be the result of suicide". The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the death is still being investigated.

"The Naval Special Warfare family is deeply saddened by the loss of our teammate," said Captain Robert Smith, commander of Naval Special Warfare Group Two, which manages all Virginia-based Navy Seal teams.

"We extend our condolences, thoughts and prayers to the family, friends, and NSW community during this time of grieving."

Smith added: "As we mourn the loss and honour the memory of our fallen teammate, those he served with will continue to carry out the mission.".

A US military official confirmed Price was from Virginia Beach, Virginia-based Seal Team 4, which is part of the mission to train Afghan local police to fend off the Taliban in remote parts of Afghanistan.

Price is survived by a wife and a daughter.


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Russian military presence in Syria poses challenge to US-led intervention
December 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM
 

Advisers deployed with surface-to-air systems bolster President Assad's defences and complicate outcome of any future strikes

Russian military advisers are manning some of Syria's more sophisticated air defences – something that would complicate any future US-led intervention, the Guardian has learned.

The advisers have been deployed with new surface-to-air systems and upgrades of old systems, which Moscow has supplied to the Assad regime since the Syrian revolution broke out 21 months ago.

The depth and complexity of Syria's anti-aircraft defences mean that any direct western campaign, in support of a no-fly zone or in the form of punitive air strikes against the leadership, would be costly, protracted and risky. The possibility of Russian military casualties in such a campaign could have unpredictable geopolitical consequences.

Meanwhile, near-daily atrocities have kept western governments under pressure to act. A Syrian government air strike on a town near the central city of Hama on Sunday killed dozens of civilians queueing for bread, according to human rights activists.

Amateur footage from Halfaya showed mangled human remains strewn along a street where people had been blown off scooters and out of cars. One video showed a boy with his feet blown off. Piles of corpses could be seen beneath rubble outside a two-storey building the cameraman described as a bakery. It was unclear how many bodies were in the smoking ruins.

Human Rights Watch has previously accused the regime of targeting bakeries. The group warned the Assad regime that such targeted bombing of civilians represented war crimes. However, in the face of a Russian veto at the UN security council, the international criminal court has not had a mandate to investigate the atrocities committed by either side. The UN has put the death toll at more than 40,000 as the war continues to escalate.

Turkish officials, who accurately predicted the Syrian regime would use Scud missiles after several warplanes were shot down by rebels, also believe President Bashar al-Assad has twice come close to using chemical weapons including sarin, the nerve gas. First, after the bombing of the regime's Damascus security headquarters in July, which killed the president's brother in law, Assef Shawkat, and then last month, after opposition forces made significant gains.

The Turks and western officials say there are signs Assad sees chemical weapons as another step in the escalation of force, rather than a Rubicon-crossing gamble that could end his regime. The US, UK, France and Turkey have warned Syria that its use of such weapons would trigger military retribution. But any such a response would be fraught with difficulties.

Air strikes against chemical weapon depots would potentially disperse lethal gases over a vast area, triggering a humanitarian disaster. US and allied special forces have been trained to seize the air bases where the warheads are kept, but it is unclear what the next step would be. It would be physically impossible to fly the hundreds of warheads out of the country, while it would take thousands of troops to guard the arsenal for what could be many months. In the interim, those western troops could easily become the target of Islamist groups fighting the government in Damascus.

Any air strikes against regime targets, in response to chemical weapon use, or any attempt to create a no-fly zone to stop further bombing of refugee camps, would require the suppression of Syria's formidable defences. Those have been bolstered significantly since Israeli strikes on an alleged nuclear reactor site at al-Kibar in 2007 exposed holes, and again since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising in March 2011.

The upgrades were supplied by Moscow, which sees them as a bulwark against western-imposed regime change and protection of a longstanding investment in Syria. The country includes Russia's biggest electronic eavesdropping post outside its territory, in Latakia, and its toehold on the Mediterranean, a small naval base at Tartus.

Russian security and defence officials, who are notoriously loth to publicly comment on their operations abroad, have repeatedly denied providing explicit support for the Assad regime.

Over the weekend, the head of Russia's ground forces air defence, Major General Alexander Leonov, told the Ekho Moskvy radio station: "Syria's air-defence system is a no-nonsense force. As a result, no one has ever used serious air combat power against it."

That "no-nonsense" force, the air defence command, comprises two divisions and an estimated 50,000 troops – twice the size of Muammar Gaddafi's force – with thousands of anti-aircraft guns and more than 130 anti-aircraft missile batteries.

According to Jeremy Binnie, the editor of Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor, recent Russian deliveries include Buk-M2 and Pantsyr-S1 (known to Nato as SA-22) mobile missile launch and radar systems. Reports of the shipment of the modern long-range S-300 have not been confirmed, and the Syrian armed forces did not show off any S-300 missiles in a military display this year. It is possible they have been delivered but are not yet operational.

Guy Ben-Ari, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "They don't just sell the equipment. They also help man the crews and train the crews. Sometimes there is just no domestic capacity to run these systems, and that is the case in Syria where Syrian crews are not capable of using the equipment to its full capacity."

Sources familiar with the Moscow-Damascus defence relationship confirmed the presence of Russian air-defence crews inside Syria. Their deployment would be a consideration when western contingency plans for Syria were being considered, they said.

Such a dense, layered and overlapping air-defence system would require a huge air campaign, heavily reliant on thousands of precision-guided missiles. The UK, France and other American allies in Europe used up their stocks of such weapons in Libya and although these are classified there have been reports that they have not yet returned to pre-Libya levels.

"We know they pretty much ran out of them at the end of Libya. Given budgetary constraints the Europeans are operating, and in an era where every euro spent on defence is very heavily scrutinised, it is a hard sell to restock on this stuff," Ben-Ari said. "And it would not be enough to be at Libya levels. You would need far more for Syria."

A Syrian air campaign would also require stealth aircraft and a great amount of signals intelligence, satellite imagery and aerial reconnaissance, all of which are US specialities. For all those reasons, Washington would not be able to "lead from behind" as it did in Libya.

The Obama administration has so far been extremely wary of getting enmeshed in another Middle East war, particular in the knowledge that the long-running Iranian nuclear crisis could trigger a conflict in the Gulf at any time. With the resignation of the CIA director, David Petraeus, last month, the administration arguably lost its most powerful advocate of Syrian intervention.

John Kerry, the nominee for secretary of state, has advocated greater support for the rebels, but stopped short of calling for direct US or Nato involvement. With no new secretary of defence yet nominated, it could take several months for the new team to recalibrate its approach.

The robust Syrian defences, combined with Damascus's hand-in-glove relationship with Moscow, and the fragmented nature of the opposition, help explain why a US-led intervention – predicted as imminent for more than a year by advocates and opponents alike – has so far failed to materialise, and why there is little appetite for such a move in Washington and most other western capitals, barring a major, verifiable use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.


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I'm dreaming of a... statistically modelled White Christmas | Harry J Enten
December 23, 2012 at 8:57 PM
 

A look at the forecasts shows that surprising areas of the US are in for snow on Christmas Eve and/or Christmas Day

Santa's coming to town in the next 48 hours, so there are two questions on children's minds. One is what gifts they'll get. I have no clue. Two is whether there will be a White Christmas. That I can answer with more accuracy.

This map is taken from yesterday's Weather Channel's Christmas forecast – with a few minor adjustments. I've upped the probability of a White Christmas in portions of western Colorado, southwestern Indiana, eastern Oregon, central Pennsylvania, southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Most of the areas in pink already have snow on the ground, while those in white are expected to receive snow over the next two days.

Most of you know if you have snow on the ground already. This includes most of the Midwest, the areas near the Great Lakes in the Northeast and northern New England.

Keep in mind that this map isn't perfect. The area around Chicago for instance probably has a little less (or no) snow on the ground, but it's a very good guide.

I'd argue, though, that a White Christmas is extra special if it actually snows on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. The idea of Santa guiding Rudolph and friends through the snowflakes makes for a Hollywood-like scene.

So where can we expect snow to fall from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day? The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center gives the following areas at least a 50% chance of an inch of snow falling over this approximate time frame.

You'll note that two places that don't currently have snow on the ground are expected to boost their snow totals.

One is around the Denver area, where eastern Colorado is expected to do quite well. Snowfall around Denver should be between two to four inches of snow and it will mostly fall on the evening of Christmas Eve.

The other area is in a most unexpected place: the South. Areas from Oklahoma to southern Indiana and places in-between won't wake up to snow on Christmas morning, yet they look likely to close out the holiday with a somewhat surprising winter blast during the day and into the evening. Snowfall totals could easily exceed four inches in this region.

The New York City Metropolitan area is not on the map. There are some models and forecasters indicating the snow line currently about 90 miles north of New York City per the HPC might come close to approaching New York. I'm doubtful at this point, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, most people won't get to experience a white Christmas. So what will the weather be like in the major metropolitan areas at 7am on Christmas morning?

• Atlanta will have a temperature around 50 and showers possible.

• Chicago will be in the mid 20s with mostly cloudy skies.

• Dallas will be in the upper 40s with rain showers possible.

• Los Angeles will be in the mid 50s with mostly sunny skies.

• Miami will be in the upper 60s with mostly sunny skies.

• New York will be in the upper 30s with snow or rain showers possible.

• San Francisco will be in the upper 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

• Washington DC will be in the upper 30s with partly sunny skies.

When you put it all together, the areas where you'd expect nice weather are nice. The cooler areas are cool. The only real surprise will be that southern snow on Christmas Day, towards evening.


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NRA's Wayne LaPierre doubles down on schools gun plan as anger rises
December 23, 2012 at 7:38 PM
 

Lobbyist holds his ground as Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence releases plea from parent of Sandy Hook survivor

The National Rifle Association doubled down Sunday on its controversial push for armed guards to be stationed in every US school, despite anger among gun control advocates over the group's "tone deaf" proposals.

Responding to widespread condemnation of the lobbying group's press conference on Friday – which broke a week-long silence over the mass shooting at Sandy Hook elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut – Wayne LaPierre, the NRA's chief executive and executive vice president, refused to back down or enter into a new debate.

"If it's crazy to call for putting police and armed security in our schools to protect our children, then call me crazy," LaPierre said in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press. "I think the American people think it's crazy not to do it. It's the one thing that would keep people safe."

In response to the NRA's entrenchment of its position, a gun control campaign group released a statement Sunday from a Sandy Hook parent which urged "responsible" gun owners to distance themselves from LaPierre's organisation.

LaPierre launched the NRA's response to the school shooting at a briefing on Friday which was twice interrupted by protesters. His comments attracted widespread criticism, even from many pro-gun Republicans and conservatives. Michael Steele, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, called LaPierre's comments "very haunting and very disturbing" and said he had missed an opportunity "to create another conversation at a higher level where the American people are right now".

Chris Murphy, a Democratic representative and senator-elect for Connecticut, described LaPierre's response as "revolting" and "tone deaf" while an editorial in the New York Times said it was "almost deranged".

In the wake of the Newtown shooting, which left 27 victims dead, including 20 children aged six and seven, there have been mounting calls for greater gun controls, including a ban on military-style assault weapons, a cap on high-capacity magazines and tightened background checks on private gun sellers. President Barack Obama has said he will make firearm legislation a "central issue" of his second term in office. Meanwhile, polls show that a slight majority of Americans now favour restrictions on guns.

On Sunday, LaPierre also contended that any new efforts by congress to regulate guns or ammunition would not prevent mass shootings. He said that advocates of stringent restrictions on private gun sales want to put "every gun sale under the thumb of the federal government".

He dismissed the legislation on certain types of semi-automatic firearms that has been proposed by Dianne Feinstein, a Democratic senator from California, as a "phony piece of legislation" "based on lies" which, he predicted, would not become law.

Semi-automatic assault rifles, like the Bushmaster gun that was used in last week's attack in Newtown by Adam Lanza, release a round of bullets at a single pull of the trigger.

The NRA has consistently resisted any move towards tightened gun controls after gun rampages over the past 20 years.

"I know there's a media machine in this country that wants to blame guns every time something happens," LaPierre said, insisting that an armed guard might have been able to stop Lanza.

The NRA's hardline stance, which has come under more pressure in recent days than in any of the years following the Columbine school massacre of 1999, amid what appears to be a shift in the national conversation, was criticised by lawmakers.

Charles Schumer, a Democratic Senator from New York, said on Meet the Press that LaPierre was "so doctrinaire" that gun owners themselves would turn against the NRA. "Trying to prevent shootings in schools without talking about guns is like trying to prevent lung cancer without talking about cigarettes," Schumer said.

Citing LaPierre's comment that "the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun", Schumer said: "What about stopping the bad guy from getting a gun in the first place?"

In an attempt to put further pressure on the NRA, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence released a plea on Sunday from Andrei Nikitchyuk, whose eight-year-old son survived the Sandy Hook massacre, calling on gun owners to back tighter controls

The statement read: "Nothing will bring our children back or ease the pain we all feel, but we can do something to make this nation safer. We can make this the nation we all want. So today I want to speak specifically to all responsible gun owners and NRA members with the message to join us. Join us because you know in your heart that we are better than this."

LaPierre has blamed the Newtown shooting on factors including pro-gun control politicians, the media and health services that failed to apprehend mentally-ill killers.

The NRA plans to develop a school emergency response program that would use volunteers from the group's 4.3 million members to help guard children. It has named Asa Hutchinson, a former Republican congressman for Arkansas, as national director of the program. Hutchinson said local districts should make decisions about armed guards in schools.

"I've made it clear that it should not be a mandatory law, that every school has this. There should be local choice but absolutely, I believe that protecting our children with an armed guard who is trained is an important part of the equation," he told ABC's This Week.

There are currently "in excess of 10,000" gun-carrying police assigned to schools, the Washington Post reported, citing figures from the National Association of School Resource Officers. But few officers are based in elementary schools, the newspaper said.


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Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers - live!
December 23, 2012 at 6:57 PM
 

Can the Cincinnati Bengals overcome the Pittsburgh Steelers and seal a playoff berth? Find out with Paolo Bandini




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Egypt referendum: opposition calls for fraud inquiry
December 23, 2012 at 6:53 PM
 

National Salvation Front claims referendum result was secured by fraud after Brotherhood claims backing of 64% of voters

Egypt's opposition has called for an investigation into allegations of fraud in the referendum on the country's contentious draft constitution, after the Muslim Brotherhood claimed 64% of voters had backed the new charter.

Official results from the two-round poll are scheduled for release on Monday, but the opposition allegations are likely to prolong months of bitter political clashes, which have at times erupted into deadly street battles.

President Mohamed Morsi's Freedom and Justice party, the Brotherhood's political arm, said an unofficial tally of the vote showed a majority of the population had backed the constitution. "We hope approving the new constitution would be an historic opportunity to reunite national forces, on the basis of mutual respect and sincere dialogue, in order to achieve stability in this homeland and to complete its constitutional institutions," the FJP said.

But the opposition National Salvation Front (NSF) said the result had been secured by "fraud, violations and organisational shortcomings".

"The referendum is not the end game. It is only a battle in this long struggle for the future of Egypt," it said. "We will not allow a change to the identity of Egypt or the return of the age of tyranny."

The opposition claims the new constitution will be a catastrophe for political and economic rights in Egypt. Critics say it seeks to enshrine Islamist rule and does not sufficiently protect the rights of women and minority groups.

Opposition concerns over the poll were fuelled by a marked disparity in the results between the first and second round. In the first round, which covered 10 governorates including the capital, Cairo, the result was a marginal victory for the "yes" vote by 54%. This ballooned in the second round to 72%.

Opposition activists alleged there had been violations at polling stations, including inadequate judicial supervision of ballot boxes and attempts by staff to influence voters.

In a statement, the FJP admitted some irregularities had been reported, but said they were so few and so limited that "they had no effect on the integrity of the referendum". Hamdeen Sabahy, NSF member and former presidential candidate, said: "There is no consensus on this constitution. It has split the country and [the low turnout] indicates it is not acceptable as the constitution of Egypt."

The unofficial figures showed a turnout of just 32% of Egypt's 52 million registered voters – significantly lower than in June's presidential runoff between Morsi and Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafik.

Opposition groups say the low turnout casts doubt on the legitimacy of the referendum, and Michael W Hanna, a fellow at the Century Foundation thinktank, argued that the result represented a warning of growing political apathy.

Yet the Muslim Brotherhood and opposition parties could also take heart from the result, he added. "For the Islamists, the fact that many Shafik voters stayed home, or perhaps voted 'yes', is a source of encouragement. For non-Islamists, this vote again shows the mobilised Islamist base is perhaps 15% of the total population, [as it was in] the presidential runoff. If non-Islamists can mobilise voters, the Islamist base is not insurmountable."

Liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said: "The majority is not big and the minority is not small," adding that the NSF would use "all peaceful, democratic means" to challenge the constitution.

The runup to the referendum caused increasing polarisation in Egyptian politics, which began in late November when Morsi issued a decree granting him judicial immunity and powers to protect the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly tasked with drafting the constitution.

Protests and violence erupted throughout Egypt, culminating in heavy clashes on 5 December when FJP supporters forcibly dispersed an opposition sit-in at the presidential palace in Cairo. Nine people died.

In this divisive climate, the assembly rushed to finish the draft and Morsi called for the referendum. Among the claims and counterclaims, Brotherhood leaders used sectarian language to attack the opposition, confirmed when the FJP secretary-general, Mohamed El-Beltagy, told the Guardian 60% of protesters at the presidential palace were Coptic Christians. He declined to elaborate on that statement, saying he was stating a fact and not interpreting it.

"The divides and polarisation are here to stay," Hanna said. "The sectarian rhetoric of the 'yes' campaign and by Brotherhood leaders will have long-lasting ramifications. The passage of the constitution is unlikely to usher in any semblance of stability and, in fact, might institutionalise the current political crisis. Of course, these divides make taking serious economic decisions next to impossible, while the economic status quo remains untenable."

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians party. He warned that anti-Morsi sentiment was growing. "People are not going to accept the way [he is] dealing with the situation."


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Somali pirates release ship and hostages after almost three years
December 23, 2012 at 6:35 PM
 

Twenty-two sailors on board were freed after a two-week siege by maritime police, according to statement

Twenty-two sailors held hostage by Somali pirates with their ship for almost three years have been freed after a two-week siege by maritime police, the government of the breakaway Somali enclave of Puntland has said.

The crew of the Panama-flagged MV Iceberg 1, who are from the Philippines, India, Yemen, Sudan, Ghana and Pakistan, had been held for longer than any other hostages captured by pirates who prey on shipping in the region, according to the president's office of the northern Somali enclave.

Police laid siege to the vessel on 10 December near the coastal village of Gara'ad, in the region of Mudug.

"After two years and nine months in captivity, the hostages have suffered signs of physical torture and illness. They are now receiving nutrition and medical care," a statement said.

The ship originally had a crew of 24, but, according to the pirates, two had died since the roll-on, roll-off cargo vessel was seized on 29 March 2010, about 10 miles from Aden.

One of the pirate leaders said they released the ship after negotiations with Puntland officials and local elders. "They kindly requested the release of the ship we held for three years. Puntland forces had attacked us and tried to release the ship by force but they failed. We fought back and defeated them," the pirate known as Farah told Reuters.

Farah did not disclose whether a ransom was paid for the crew and the 4,500 tonne ship, owned by Azal Shipping in Dubai.

Pirates rarely release ships without ransom, and usually raise their demands the longer they hold a vessel, because they charge for their expenses. International navies have had some recent success containing piracy in the Indian Ocean.

Although more than 100 hostages taken off Somalia are still being held captive, the number of hijackings of ships dropped to seven in the first 11 months of this year compared with 24 in the whole of 2011.

Separately, Puntland said a group of eight Puntland soldiers responsible for briefly trying to sail away with a North Korea-flagged vessel, MV Daesan, and its 33-member crew were jailed by a Puntland military court on 22 December.

The ship was ferrying cement to the Somali capital, Mogadishu, and was impounded by the Puntland authorities and fined last month after it was accused of ditching its cargo off Somalia's coast.

The soldiers had taken the vessel on 18 December.

"Puntland government managed to return the vessel back to the port within 24 hours; the soldiers were arrested and will be brought to justice," the authorities said.


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Somali pirates release ship and hostages after almost three years
December 23, 2012 at 6:35 PM
 

Twenty-two sailors onboard were freed after a two-week siege by maritime police, according to statement

Twenty-two sailors held hostage by Somali pirates with their ship for almost three years have been freed after a two-week siege by maritime police, the government of the breakaway Somali enclave of Puntland has said.

The crew of the Panama-flagged MV Iceberg 1, who are from the Philippines, India, Yemen, Sudan, Ghana and Pakistan, had been held for longer than any other hostages captured by pirates who prey on shipping in the region, according to the president's office of the northern Somali enclave.

Police laid siege to the vessel on 10 December near the coastal village of Gara'ad in the region of Mudug.

"After 2 years and nine months in captivity, the hostages have suffered signs of physical torture and illness. They are now receiving nutrition and medical care," a statement said.

The ship originally had a crew of 24, but, according to the pirates, two had died since the roll-on, roll-off cargo vessel was seized on 29 March 2010, about 10 miles from Aden.

One of the pirate leaders said they released the ship after negotiations with Puntland officials and local elders. "They kindly requested the release of the ship we held for three years. Puntland forces had attacked us and tried to release the ship by force but they failed. We fought back and defeated them," the pirate known as Farah told Reuters.

Farah He did not disclose whether a ransom was paid for the crew and the 4,500 tonne ship, owned by Azal Shipping in Dubai.

Pirates rarely release ships without ransom, and usually raise their demands the longer they hold a vessel, because they charge for their expenses. International navies have had some recent success containing piracy in the Indian Ocean.

Although more than 100 hostages taken off Somalia are still being held captive, the number of hijackings of ships dropped to seven in the first 11 months of this year compared to 24 in the whole of 2011.

Separately, Puntland said a group of eight Puntland soldiers responsible for briefly trying to sail away with a North Korea-flagged vessel, MV Daesan and its 33-member crew were jailed by a Puntland military court on 22 December.

The ship was ferrying cement to the Somali capital Mogadishu and was impounded by the Puntland authorities and fined last month and issued with a fine after it was accused of ditching its cargo off Somalia's coast.

The soldiers had taken the vessel on 18 December.

"Puntland government managed to return the vessel back to the port within 24 hours; the soldiers were arrested and will be brought to justice," the authorities said.


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Barack Obama 'eager' to fall off fiscal cliff, says senior Republican senator
December 23, 2012 at 6:33 PM
 

Senator John Barrasso tells Fox News Sunday he thinks the president is 'eager to go off fiscal cliff for political purposes'

President Barack Obama has been accused by a senior Republican of being eager to take the US over the fiscal cliff for political gain, as Washington edges closer to a year-end deadline with no deal in sight.

Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Senator John Barrasso, the third-highest ranking senator in the GOP, suggested that the president "sensed victory at the bottom of the cliff".

Earlier, Obama called on Congress to "cool off" over the holiday break, amid rising rhetoric on both sides. On Friday, the White House raised the prospect of settling for a stopgap measure to avert the punitive tax rises and swingeing spending cuts which are due to come in effect on 1 January. The president had previously pushed for a grand compromise to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

But with just nine days to go until the year-end deadline, Democrats and Republicans are seemingly still some way off from any agreement, be it to a comprehensive deal or short-term measures.

Asked if he believed that the US was heading towards missing the deadline, and thus falling off the fiscal cliff, Barrasso said: "I believe we are. I believe the president is eager to go over the cliff for political purposes. He senses a victory at the bottom of the cliff. I think it hurts our county and it hurts our economy."

Speaking on the same show the Democrat senator Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate budget committee, held out some hope of a comprehensive solution ahead of 1 January, rather than scaled-down package that could merely kick the debate into 2013.

"I would hope we have one last attempt," he said.

Conrad suggested that the two sides could come to a compromise somewhere between the president's last offer and a plan that was put forward by John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives.

Obama had been pushing a plan that would have seen tax revenues rise by $1.6tn over the next decade, with a hike in the rate for those earning upwards of $250,000 a year central to proposals. Boehner has argued that such a move would be a "crippling blow" and that it was not accompanied by a large enough swipe at federal spending.

His "plan B" would have pushed more limited tax increases on those earning in excess of $1m. But even that was not enough to assuage Tea Party-backed Republicans in Congress, who rebelled against the proposal on Thursday.

The White House has indicated that it is willing to move the threshold for those targeted for more tax to $400,000. But with anti-tax House representatives in no mood to compromise it is uncertain if this offer, or even a greater concession by Democrats to move the line to $500,000, will get much traction in the House.

Obama is currently on holiday in Hawaii. Before leaving he urged both sides of the aisle to have a rethink over the consequences of not reaching a deal.

The fiscal cliff represents some $600bn worth of spending cuts and tax increases which will hit all Americans which are due to be automatically triggered on 1 January, in the event of no deal over how to stabilise national debt. Experts have warned that the situation would be catastrophic for the fragile US economic recovery.

"Now is not the time for more self-inflicted wounds, certainly not those coming from Washington," Obama said on Friday. As such he urged Democrats and Republicans to "cool off" over the Christmas break and return to Congress in a mood to compromise.

Aides have said that despite being on vacation in Hawaii, the president will be receiving regular briefings on the state of talks and is prepared to come back to Washington early, if events demand.


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Chelsea v Aston Villa - as it happened | Rob Bagchi
December 23, 2012 at 5:52 PM
 

Minute-by-minute report: Chelsea walloped Aston Villa 8-0 to inflict the visitors' worst ever Premier League




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Cincinnati Bengals 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - as it happened!
December 23, 2012 at 5:27 PM
 

The Cincinnati Bengals reached the playoffs and eliminated the Pittsburgh Steelers with victory at Heinz Field




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Counterfeit medicine from Asia threatens lives in Africa
December 23, 2012 at 4:33 PM
 

Malaria is one of the diseases affected by unscrupulous traders in fake and substandard drugs

International health experts are warning of a mounting health crisis in parts of Africa because of an influx of counterfeit medicine from Asia that is playing havoc with the treatment of diseases such as malaria. Porous borders in Africa coupled with indifferent oversight in China are combining to turn the continent and its pressing health problems into a free-for-all for maverick manufacturers, some of whom are producing pills with no active ingredients at all.

Precise data is hard to track down because of the informal nature of African health systems. But several recent studies warn that as many as one-third of malaria drugs in Uganda and Tanzania are fake or substandard, with most believed to originate in China or India.

Apart from the lives lost, there are additional concerns about drug resistance building in east Africa, experts say. "It's a crisis any time someone dies," Nick White, who chairs the Wellcome Trust's south-east Asia major overseas programmes and the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (Wwarn). "It's a massive problem that people have simply ignored. It's not like a boil that's beginning to burst because it's been a problem for a long time. What has happened is we are beginning to recognise it more."

Laurie Garett, senior fellow for global health at the US Council on Foreign Relations, said: "Nobody has a head count – or a body count – on numbers of Africans that have died as a result. But China's role certainly has been dreadful."

David Nahamya, chief drug inspector for the Ugandan national drug authority, said: "What we are told is this, if someone wants to counterfeit a drug, they just take the package to China and they can make it in thousands. You have seen how they make it there. They can copy anything."

An increasing list of studies and surveys about fake, counterfeit and substandard drugs has emerged in recent years, but because of deeply entrenched interests from all sides – governments, NGOs and pharmaceutical companies – there has been great reluctance to call the scourge of killer medications in Africa and elsewhere a crisis.

This is despite the fact that everything from life-saving Aids medication to emergency contraception are being copied, faked and made with shoddy components on a huge scale.

Patrick Lukulay, vice president of the US Pharmacopeial Convention's global health impact programmes, said it was no secret that the majority of dangerous medications came from China and India, as those countries had the world's largest production bases for both active ingredients and finished drugs.

While India has stepped up oversight, "China is only now just catching on", he added.

Though it may seem like an immense amount of trouble to counterfeit a £3 packet of malaria pills, Lulukay noted that the global trade was estimated at £46bn a year. Counterfeiters know their markets well and target medications accordingly. Efforts to combat the activity are in their infancy.

"If you want to be efficient in fighting it, you have to have a very strong regulatory authority, very strong collaborations, very good distribution networks and good co-operation between governments," said Sabine Kopp, who manages the anti-counterfeiting and medicines quality assurance programmes at the World Health Organisation.

As yet, none of those components are in place and counterfeiters, apparently unconcerned with harming sick people in developing countries, continue making huge profits.

It is a loss to global aid organisations, as well, said Dr Nick White. "Think of the hundreds of millions, if not billions, you spend on pills to help people in poor countries," he said. "It's bonkers not to make sure they're authentic and instead people are ending up with shoddy pills from China."

This work was funded in part by a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting


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Syria: dozens killed in air strike on bakery
December 23, 2012 at 4:15 PM
 

Attack on bakery in central Hama province leaves many dead and wounded, according to activists

Dozens of people have been killed in an air strike on a bakery in Syria's central Hama province, activists claim, with some reporting up to 200 dead.

"There is no way to really know yet how many people were killed. When I got there, I could see piles of bodies all over the ground. There were women and children," said Samer al-Hamawi, an activist in the town of Halfaya, where the strike hit. "There are also dozens of wounded people"

Halfaya was seized by rebels last week as part of a campaign to push into new territories in the 21-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad,

Another activist said residents picking through the bodies were still determining which were wounded and which were dead.

Hamawi, who spoke via Skype, uploaded a video of the scene, which showed dozens of dust-coated bodies lined up near a pile of rubble by a concrete building, its walls blackened.

The sounds of people screaming could be heard in the video (warning: graphic images), as men rushed to the scene on motorcycles and other residents limped away from the area. The authenticity of the video could not be immediately verified. The government restricts media access in Syria.

Activists said more than 1,000 people had been queuing at the bakery. Shortages of fuel and flour have made bread production erratic across the country, and people often wait for hours to buy bread.

New York-based Human Rights Watch condemned army air strikes on bakeries earlier this year, arguing that in some incidents the military was not using enough precision to target rebel sites and in other instances may have intentionally hit civilians.

"We hadn't received flour in around three days so everyone was going to the bakery today, and lots of them were women and children," Hamawi said. "I still don't know yet if my relatives are among the dead."


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Chelsea v Aston Villa - live! | Rob Bagchi
December 23, 2012 at 4:02 PM
 

Minute-by-minute report: Follow the action from Stamford Bridge with Rob Bagchi




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Former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford considers senate run
December 23, 2012 at 3:33 PM
 

Politician who left public life after mystery flight to Argentina to spend time with his mistress eyes Tim Scott's vacated seat

The former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford, who left public life two years ago after mysteriously disappearing to visit his then-mistress in Argentina, is poised to re-enter the political arena.

Acknowledging reports that he is seriously weighing a bid for the congressional seat he once held, Sanford wrote in an email late Saturday: "To answer your question, yes the accounts are accurate." He promised "further conversation on all this" at a later date.

The two-term governor was a rising Republican political star before, in 2009, he vanished from South Carolina for five days. Reporters were told he was hiking the Appalachian Trail, but Sanford later acknowledged, tearfully, that he had been visiting María Belén Chapur, a woman he called his soul mate at a news conference that was held to announce his affair. The two were engaged earlier this year.

The opening for Sanford comes after representative Tim Scott was appointed to fill the remaining two years of senator Jim DeMint's seat. DeMint announced earlier this month he was resigning.

News that Sanford, 52, may be interested in the seat comes days after his ex-wife, Jenny, appeared to be dipping her toe into the state's political waters. She was reportedly on governor Nikki Haley's short list of candidates to fill the seat that went to Scott. Jenny Sanford later said she would think about a run for Scott's seat representing the coastal 1st Congressional District, the seat her ex-husband is now considering.

"I'd be crazy not to look at the race a little bit," she said Tuesday, before reports about her ex-husband surfaced.

State Republicans said Scott planned to submit his letter of resignation from the house on 2 January, triggering a process of candidate filing and primaries leading up to a special election in May.

Mark Sanford knows the 1st District well. He was elected to the seat in 1994, when Jenny Sanford managed his first campaign. She was a close adviser for most of his career, in which he served three terms before voters elected him governor in 2002.

The former governor would bring name recognition and money to the race – two things which will be especially important due to the short campaign season and an open field. Whether voters are ready to welcome Sanford back to politics is another issue.

Sanford avoided impeachment over his trip to Argentina but was censured by the state legislature. He also had to pay more than $70,000 in ethics fines – still the largest in state history – after investigations raised questions about his use of state, private and commercial aircraft.

Scott will be sworn in 3 January to replace DeMint, who announced his resignation earlier this month to lead The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Scott, who will have to seek election in 2014, will become the state's first black US senator and the first black Republican US senator from the South since Reconstruction. Candidates for Scott's seat must file by the end of January. Primaries will be held in March, with the general election in May. State Republican Chairman Chad Connelly said that as of Friday, 14 Republicans had expressed interest.

"Governor Sanford getting in would certainly alter the dynamics. That list would go down significantly," he said. Sanford has $1.2m left in his state campaign coffers.

Longtime Republican activist and donor John Rainey, who convinced Sanford to run for governor after leaving congress, said Sanford's last six months in office, following his tearful press conference, had been his most effective.

"He's finally learned how to do it," said Rainey, who was chairman of the board of economic advisors during sanford's tenure. "Mark now understands the necessity of and art of compromise. It's not my way or the highway."

Rainey added that Sanford's engagement to Chapur could improve his standing with voters.

"Think of all that's happened since 2009. That's old news," he said. "Especially in the South, we're about redemption. I don't think he's got a problem."


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Swansea City 1-1 Manchester United – as it happened | Simon Burnton
December 23, 2012 at 3:29 PM
 

Minute-by-minute report: Manchester United lead the Premier League table by four points despite being held to a draw by Swansea City




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MF Global trustee expects quicker cash payouts to creditors after deal
December 23, 2012 at 2:29 PM
 

James Giddens says he has negotiated deals with former British affiliate and failed brokerage's parent company

The trustee for the failed futures brokerage MF Global Inc has announced two key agreements that are expected to accelerate cash payouts to clients and creditors.

James Giddens, trustee for the MF Global estate, said in a statement Saturday he had negotiated deals to resolve disputes with the company's former British affiliate and the parent company, MF Global Holdings Ltd. As a result of the UK agreement, Giddens estimated that between $500m and $600m could be returned to the MF Global estate if the deal is finalized.

Giddens, whose job is to recover as much money as possible for customers, has returned about 80% of the money in customer trading accounts. He said claims by MF Global's securities customers could be fully restored. Commodities customers could get "significant additional distributions".

The estate has a hearing scheduled for 31 January 2013 before the United States bankruptcy court for the southern district of New York, the first step toward getting the UK agreement approved.

"The trustee's goal is still to return 100% to the commodities customers, and we will be going before the court in an attempt to achieve that," said Kent Jarrell, a spokesman for Giddens, on Saturday.

MF Global improperly used customer money to plug liquidity gaps as it was in freefall last year, creating a roughly $1.6bn gap in customer accounts, according to a June report by Giddens. The company filed for bankruptcy in October 2011. As a result of money changing hands during MF Global's chaotic collapse, company affiliates have been fighting over who owes money to whom.

Earlier this month, Giddens released a report saying that more than 28,000 claims had been filed by the brokerage's commodities and securities customers – all but 200 have been fully resolved. So far, Giddens has returned approximately $4.7bn to commodities customers hit by the brokerage's collapse.


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Swansea City v Manchester United – live! | Simon Burnton
December 23, 2012 at 1:58 PM
 

Minute-by-minute report: Can Manchester United restore their six-point lead at the top? Find out with Simon Burnton




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US west coast may be within North Korean missile range, says Seoul
December 23, 2012 at 1:02 PM
 

South Korea says analysis of first-stage rocket from North's launch this month suggests a range of more than 6,200 miles

This month's rocket launch by North Korea shows it has probably developed the technology to fire a warhead more than 6,200 miles, theoretically putting the US west coast in range of its weapons, according to South Korean officials .

North Korea said the launch on 12 December put a weather satellite in orbit, but critics say it was aimed at nurturing the kind of technology needed to mount a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile.

North Korea is banned from testing missile or nuclear technology under UN sanctions imposed after nuclear weapons tests in 2006 and 2009. The UN security council condemned the latest launch.

South Korea retrieved and analysed parts of the first-stage rocket that dropped in the waters off its west coast. "As a result of analysing the material of Unha-3, we judged North Korea had secured a range of more than 10,000km in case the warhead is 5-600kg," a South Korean defence ministry official said.

North Korea's previous missile tests ended in failure. The North has spent decades and scarce resources to try to develop technology capable of striking targets as far away as the US and is working to build a nuclear arsenal. But experts believe it is still years away from mastering the technology needed to miniaturise a nuclear bomb to mount on a missile.

South Korean defence officials said there was no confirmation whether the North had the re-entry technology needed for a payload to survive the heat and vibration without disintegrating.

Despite international condemnation, the launch this month was seen as a boost domestically to the credibility of the North's young leader, Kim Jong-un, who took power after his father died last year.

Apparently encouraged by the euphoria, the fledgling supreme leader called for the development and launching of "a variety of more working satellites" and "carrier rockets of bigger capacity", at a banquet in Pyongyang on Friday which he hosted for those who contributed to the liftoff, according to North Korean state media.


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India gang-rape protests dispersed by police using teargas and water cannon
December 23, 2012 at 11:08 AM
 

Anger at gang rape of student on public bus rages as demonstrations against sexual violence continue in Delhi

Police in India have used baton charges, water cannon and teargas to disperse crowds of demonstrators calling for stronger measures to combat the wave of sexual violence towards women in the country.

The brutal gang rape of a 23-year-old in the capital, Delhi has provoked widespread anger, largely focused on the police, politicians and senior officials. The incident has dominated news bulletins all week. The victim, a physiotherapy student who was returning home with a friend from a film in the south of the capital last Sunday, is still in a critical condition. Six men have now been arrested and face life imprisonment if convicted of any role in the assault, which took place on a bus travelling on main roads in the capital over an hour.

Many protesters taking part in the almost entirely spontaneous demonstrations across the country have called for the death sentence to be imposed for rape. Others disagree. Dozens were injured in clashes with police on Saturday. Several metro stations in the capital were shut on Sunday to prevent demonstrators reaching key locations around parliament and the president's residency. However, a crowd of several hundred had gathered close to parliament. Scores of protesters have been detained or forcibly removed from sit-ins over the last 24 hours.

Police said that demonstrations would only be permitted at two locations in Delhi, both traditionally used for rallies. A number of fringe political groups appear to have joined the protests for the first time, to the dismay of some demonstrators.

"This is not about scoring political goals," said student Vijay Kakar, 24. "It is about justice and protection for our sisters."

Sonia Gandhi, tchair of the ruling Congress party-led coalition, met protesters outside her official residence on Sunday morning.

Local media reported that Gandhi assured the group that she was "with them" and that "justice would be delivered". Many demonstrators said they had been angered by reports that hundreds of men accused of sexual violence towards women have been allowed to run in Indian elections over the last five years. These include more than 30 charged by police with rape.

The figures were released on Thursday by the Association for Democratic Reforms, a respected thinktank, and were based on court records and electoral declarations filed by the candidates themselves. Although there has been much discussion of the failings of police in preventing rape, there has been less attention on the underlying reasons for the current wave of sexual violence against women in India.


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